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News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

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1  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: May 07, 2015, 10:01:47 pm
I will most certainly NOT be accepting my accolades. The lesson I've taken is that it's actually harder to predict an election in one's own country than anywhere else, because you've always got something invested in it, even if you'd rather think that not to be the case.
2  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 12:34:37 pm
For those who are interested, here's the approximate declaration times for each constituency:

http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2015_by_time.php
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:22:42 am
I've just voted at my polling station in Brighton Pavilion. It was quiet but I don't think 1pm is a particularly busy time of day. There was both a Labour and Green teller and I've spotted one activist from each around the place.

For what it's worth, the poster war has a clear lead from "re-elect Caroline Lucas" posters, and I live in a competitive ward.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: May 07, 2015, 03:47:34 am
Most of this prediction was put together a week ago or so, so not as sure about it now. However, I don't want to look through every single seat again (which is what I did).  Might as well post it as even a well-informed guess is still just a guess nonetheless..

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 32.2%
Labour - 33.4%
Liberal Democrats - 12.5%
UKIP - 11.2%
Greens - 4.2%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.5%

Note: I'm predicting Conservatives to narrowly win the popular vote in England.

Seats

Conservatives - 268
Labour - 285
Liberal Democrats - 26
UKIP - 4
Greens - 1
SNP- 43
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 19 (18 NI and 1 Speaker)

Likely Government - Lab minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour 29.2% (13 seats)
SNP 46.6% (43 seats)
Liberal Democrats 5.5% (1 seat)
Conservative 12.4% (2 seats)
Greens 2.4% (0 seats)
UKIP 2.5% (0 seats)
Others 1.4% (0 seats)

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP gain from LD
Glasgow North- SNP gain from Lab
Stirling- SNP gain from Lab

Berwick Upon Tweed- Con gain from LD
Stockton South - Lab gain from Con
Redcar- Lab gain from LD

Bury North- Lab gain from Con
Southport- LD hold
Heywood and Middleton- Lab hold

Rotherham- Lab hold (UKIP second)
Colne Valley- Con hold
Bradford West- Respect gain from by-election
Sheffield Hallam- LD hold

Boston and Skegness- Con hold (UKIP over 20%)
Broxtowe- Lab gain from Con
Loughborough- Con hold

Worcester- Con hold
Dudley South- Con hold
Warwickshire North- Lab gain from Con

Ynys Mon- Lab hold
Ceredigion- LD hold (could be very split))
Vale of Glamorgan- Con hold

Camborne and Redruth- Con hold
Bristol West- Lab GAIN from LD (Greens in second)
Wells- Con GAIN from LD

Brighton Pavillion- Green hold
Thanet South- UKIP gain from Con
Rochester and Strood- UKIP gain from by-election

Kingston and Surbiton - LD hold
Battersea- Con hold
Enfield North- Lab gain from Con

Norwich South- Lab gain from LD (Greens in second)
Clacton- UKIP gain from by-election
Thurrock- UKIP gain from Con

Note: I'm expecting UKIP's support to be particularly concentrated in Kent and Essex
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 10, 2015, 12:58:41 pm
The Political Compass has published its 2015 UK party chart and analysis: http://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2015

Highlight:
Quote
Traditional Labour voters will largely stick to their old electoral habits, even though the Greens bear a far closer resemblance to the party they supported in the pre–Blairite days

LOL

Their UK party charts are preposterous, to say the least.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: December 23, 2014, 09:52:54 am
I live in Brighon Pavilion, although might not be by the time of the GE.
Brighton Pavilion is an odd seat - why do the Greens do so well there?

Firstly, there are generally favourable demographics - however, I don't have time to give examples without resorting to listing stereotypes (eg the prevalence of hippies, hipsters, students, certain types of professionals) which would be a misrepresentation of both Green voters and the city as whole even though some of such labels might be accurate when applied to myself.  The demographics shifted over the last few decades due to migration from other parts of the UK (London in particular) and from former students of the two universities remaining in the city.

Secondly, the Green Party have had a presence on the local council since 1996, which has expanded to the point whereby, as of 2011, they are now are the largest party and head a not un-controversial minority administration.

Thirdly, the Green Party (as opposed to the Lib Dems) were locally the key beneficiaries disaffection with the 1997-2010 Labour Government over issues such as the UK's involvement in the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Finally, with regards to 2010, the Green Party heavily targetted their resources on this constituency because it was their best change of a win by about a million miles.  The high public profile of the candidate, then-leader Caroline Lucas (who I'm acquianted with and rather a fan of), was definitely a factor in attacting activists from other parts of the UK and in attracting voters locally.  In my opinion any other candidate would probably not have won.
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: December 23, 2014, 08:32:30 am
I live in Brighon Pavilion, although might not be by the time of the GE.
8  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: November 06, 2014, 05:14:38 pm


Oh dear Lewes..
9  Forum Community / Off-topic Board / Re: Rik Mayall is dead on: June 10, 2014, 07:15:08 am
RIP. One of my childhood favourites.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 - Results Thread on: May 26, 2014, 04:34:22 am
But then you aren't really 'represented' by any of these people are you? That's part of the problem.

I know, I just wanted to make a horrible pun.  When it comes to MEP 'representation' it's a matter of picking and choosing who to bother contacting regarding a given issue (not that I do bother).
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 - Results Thread on: May 25, 2014, 07:57:14 pm
Imagine Nigel Farage and Dan Hannan being your representative.

Living in the South East region I don't have to imagine that.  It's like being forced into a Farage à trois..*

*Also, this pun doesn't work outside of the South East either..
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: English local elections, May 2014 on: May 25, 2014, 09:36:12 am
Rallings and Thrasher PNS out. Labour 1 point ahead of the Tories which is not bad a year out.

Not bad for who and why?

I'd say he certainly meant not bad for the conservatives - in the last decade or so the opposition have won every set of local elections before the general, and by much larger margins, only for the government to be re-elected at the general.  The Conservatives won the 2000 and 2004 locals, for example.
13  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Any politicians in your family? on: May 14, 2014, 12:44:33 pm
I'm a descendant of this man through my mother's side of the family: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elwyn_Jones
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: April 22, 2014, 03:11:14 pm
What is that image in the lower right corner of that sign supposed to be?  If I had to guess, it's an enter key on a keyboard with some custom wordage I can't read, but I wouldn't care to bet that I got it even that correct.

I think it says "common sense", which was also used as a slogan by the Conservative Party back in the Blair years.
15  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: How do school books look like where you are ? on: April 22, 2014, 02:14:24 pm
I remember the science books at my secondary school often had wangs drawn on them..
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 on: April 12, 2014, 05:51:57 am
There really needs to be a Tumblr of bad German election posters.
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: EP elections 2014 on: March 27, 2014, 09:19:48 am


I'm not sure what to think about this Left Alliance's new look :/

At first glance it looks like they're organizing a music festival or selling fruit smoothies..
18  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of this cartoon on: March 26, 2014, 11:25:33 am
Bit racist maybe..
19  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Will WW3 happen? on: March 14, 2014, 06:51:44 pm
Generally: for it not to happen it would have to never happen forever..  Still, might as well hope it does not.

With regards to the Crimea: nah.
20  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Tony Benn dies at 88 on: March 14, 2014, 06:46:13 pm
A very sincere and wonderful person. RIP
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: British Elections 1918-1945 on: January 18, 2014, 08:38:57 am
Here's a shaded map for 1935 - the map comes from an Alternate History forum but is obviously based on the Boothroyd drawing. I've removed most of the urban insets but have kept London, which has so many tiny seats that it can't be illustrated very well on the larger map.


Excellent work Smiley
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: A very little announcement on: January 13, 2014, 03:47:43 pm
Sorry to hear you're having troubles.  All I can say really is thank you for your years of good work, and that I'm glad to know you'll still be posting Smiley
23  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition for more consistent modding on: December 30, 2013, 07:36:37 am

Those quotes were from his own words. Don't believe me? The link is here. Everything about it suggests that it exact same poster who posts here on Atlas forum.


Whilst I agree with this thread please, please, please remove that link (in the paragraph quoted above): I had clicked on it using a work computer (during my lunch break) thinking it was a thread on this forum, although fortunately it was blocked out.  It's not immediately clear that this link is completely inappropriate any any context, let alone a work computer, and clicking it could cause very serious trouble to other posters.

Thanks.
24  Questions and Answers / The Atlas / Re: Petition for more consistent modding on: December 30, 2013, 07:28:03 am
x tomm_86
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion on: December 18, 2013, 01:30:51 pm
Ronnie Biggs had died. I mention this purely to note that the BBC are probably delighted (they're broadcasting a two-part drama about the Great Train Robbery starting tonight), and also for the comments of the General Secretary of ASLEF (train drivers union) on the news:

Quote
"While, naturally, we feel sorry for Mr Biggs' family at this time we have always regarded Biggs as a non-entity, and a criminal, who took part in a violent robbery which resulted in the death of a train driver. Jack Mills, who was 57 at the time of the robbery, never properly recovered from the injuries he suffered after being savagely coshed by the gang of which Biggs was a member that night."

Burn

I like this a lot.
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