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1  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Opinion of these online comments about West Virginia on: July 06, 2016, 09:51:40 am
Posting random internet comment doesn't seem like a particularly scientific exercise.
2  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: The Pigfvcker Memorial Suppository for UK News: A Departure from EUtopia on: June 30, 2016, 07:10:24 am
Boris John won't be standing the the Conservative leadership. Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120

Boris Johnson not being the next permanent leader of the Conservative Party is actually a bigger surprise to me than the UK voting to leave the European Union (although they're both directly related).
3  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party (UK) Leadership Election, 2016 on: June 29, 2016, 06:23:24 am
I think the best thing that could happen would be for Corbyn to step down and enthusiastically back John McDonnell. McDonnell is basically the same as Corbyn on economics with the added benefit of having never been caught on tape praising Hamas. He could keep all of Corbyn's parliamentary support, probably hold on to a large chunk of his popular support, and hopefully win over some of the soft left and Old Labour MPs who only recently abandoned Corbyn.

For once I agree with you--that'd be an elegant and relatively painless solution to this mess, at least in the immediate term.

Instead, someone caught on tape praising IRA. That's much worse.

Oh. I wasn't aware of that.

sh**t.

#ReadyForAngela, then.
For info, last year he did apologise ‘from the bottom of [his] heart’ for that particular comment:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/18/john-mcdonnell-apologises-for-ira-comment-labour

Whether that's good enough is highly doubtful, IMO.
4  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Boris Johnson on: June 26, 2016, 04:25:29 pm
Vacuous blowhard.
5  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Jeremy Corbyn? on: June 26, 2016, 04:22:09 pm
I have a favourable opinion of him as a person but unfortunately I do not see him up to the job of becoming PM. I'd also probably secretly be a bit anxious if this was an imminent prospect.
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 06:40:53 am
Ipsos-MORI's final poll is 52 L 48 R. Not sure what the figures are when undecideds are included so can't include in the table.

I think it's the other way round? Unless I'm thinking of a different poll..
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 23, 2016, 05:10:31 am
For 'fun', here's the map of the 2014 European Parliament election.  Purple is UKIP, red is Labour, blue is Conservative, Yellow is SNP, Gold is Lib Dem and Green is Plaid Cymru.

The top three parties nationwide were UKIP (26.6%), Labour (24.4%) and the Conservatives (23.0%).  Turnout was a measly 35.6%.



Here are some fun questions to consider:

  • Are all of the UKIP areas likely to vote Leave?
  • Which UKIP area is most likely to vote to Remain, if any?
  • Which Labour areas are likely vote to Leave?
  • Which Conservative areas are likely to vote to Remain?
  • Are all SNP and PC areas likely to vote to Remain?

I don't wish to suggest that this map has any bearing on how the referendum  result will look, particularly as it reflects pluralities for multiple parties in a relatively obscure election on a crappy turnout, rather than a 'yes/no' question.
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 22, 2016, 10:56:00 am
some are saying that although they're counting by those they'll declare it by EU Parliament regions which would just be odd.

Where have you heard that? I have only heard that results are to be declared by Local Authorities.

As far as how results might go, Sunderland will be the first to declare, as always. Sunderland is relatively eurosceptic, I can't remember where I found it, but someone has calculated, based on the general Euroscepticism of the various parts of the UK, that Sunderland will probably be about 6% more "leave" than the country.

Although that clearly has to taken with a pinch of salt, and the margins of error are massive. It means we might be able to get some sort of picture relatively early on.

I really recommend reading the Chris Hanretty article which Parochial Boy has linked to.  It's very informative.
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 22, 2016, 05:48:48 am
PEOPLE NOTHING YOU WILL HEAR BEFORE 10PM GMT ON THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE ANY GOOD (and not much in the few hours after will be worth much either).

This. However, it would be hilarious if Plymouth and Clacton were somehow 70% and 52% Leave respectively.  Of course we won't know the result for the latter, but for the local authority it is located in instead (Tendring).
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 22, 2016, 05:44:02 am
A map from Yovgov,  Blue Leave and Red Remain



I'm surprised that the welsh valleys are leaning leave, and North East of England is leaning leave!?

It's a shame tho, no break down of Northern Ireland

It's also a bit weird that they're using parliamentary constituencies, rather than local authorities, but I guess they're basing this on voting patterns data.  Like I did with that very crude and crappy (but fun) map I made a while back.

Just from looking at the Lib Dem areas I'd say they're defo basing this on General Election voting patterns (which probably isn't the best thing to do given this referendum cuts across those lines).
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 22, 2016, 05:41:20 am
A map from Yovgov,  Blue Leave and Red Remain



I'm surprised that the welsh valleys are leaning leave, and North East of England is leaning leave!?

It's a shame tho, no break down of Northern Ireland

It's also a bit weird that they're using parliamentary constituencies, rather than local authorities, but I guess they're basing this on voting patterns data.  Like I did with that very crude and crappy (but fun) map I made a while back.
12  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 21, 2016, 10:07:45 am
Below are a few demographic maps which may be useful to refer to when watching the results come in. I don't wish to imply that these groups are likely to show a particular preference at this stage (except for maybe students and the over 60s) but they could turn out to be relevant.

I'll add some more later (I'll do requests).

Over 60s (as % of voting age population)


Full-time students (as % of people aged 16 to 74)


English only identity (as % of all usual residents)


British only identity (as % of all usual residents)


No passport (as % of all usual residents)


13  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Corbyn vs the Pigdiddler on: June 16, 2016, 11:21:49 am
This is so horrible.

RIP
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: June 15, 2016, 07:13:00 am
The following document should be helpful for people interested in how the count will be carried out, and result declared:

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7588

Basically, the count will start once polls close at 10pm, and results will be declared (for counting areas) throughout the night.

The list of counting areas expected to complete the count before 1.30am is interesting:

Sunderland (North East): 12.30am
Wandsworth (London): 12.30am
City of London (London): 12.45am
Foyle (Northern Ireland): 12:30am
Hartlepool (North East): 1.00-1.30am
Newcastle upon Tyne (North East): 1.00am
Oldham (North West): 1.00am
Swindon (South West): 1.00am
West Tyrone (Northern Ireland): 1:00am
Belfast East (Northern Ireland):   1:15am
Belfast South (Northern Ireland): 1:15am
Belfast West (Northern Ireland): 1:15am

We'll have a good indication of how Northern Ireland has voted, and as for English local authorities, we've got a major northern city (Newcastle), a socially mixed London Borough (Wandsworth), three (ex-)industrial northern towns (Oldham, Hartlepool and Sunderland) and a 'swing' area in the south of England (Swindon).
15  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: What would you do if you have a sea of Trump signs near your house on: May 27, 2016, 07:20:38 am
Probably just keep myself to myself.. 

However, given where I live (Brighton, in the UK) I'd assume the signs were ironic.
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016 on: May 10, 2016, 08:31:26 am
This is actually a swing to Goldsmith compared to Johnson last time and is closer than London as a whole (which is not... normal). The concern is that possibly the whole mini Modi business worked, and I dread to think what the future implications of that might be. Though we'll need to look over ward figures (when they're out).
You partly enlightened us, but you have to assume that not all of us foreigners (not to mention bloody frogs) immediately know what Brent & Harrow is about as a neighbourhood.

Of course I could wikipedia it and find absolutely nothing on the demographics but notice that the depleted LibDem and Green vote tallies and the Respect score of 3% explain most of the shift you mentioned, but I would still be in the dark as to what's going on there, plus it's always such a pleasure to hear of these things with your words, Shibboleth! Wink

Both boroughs have large Hindu communities (25% of people in Harrow and 18% in Brent) and Zac Goldsmith's campaign produced campaign literature which implied support for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is a Hindu nationalist.


17  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: Does this forum completely fail to understand working class whites? on: May 06, 2016, 05:48:34 pm
This is the one thing I'm most certain about when it comes to this forum..
18  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why trump doing well in the very educated new england region? on: April 13, 2016, 04:09:55 am
The conspiracy theorist in me wants to say it's because (since they are smart) they are pulling a tactic out of the Claire McCaskill playbook: voting for the weakest Republican general election candidate to ensure that Hillary wins.

I hope that they'd be smart enough to be careful what they wish for..
19  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders' best county in Florida? on: March 15, 2016, 11:08:00 am
Not a county but the immediate place that came to mind was Gainesville, which is in Alachua, so I'll go with that.
20  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Porn-site viewers prefer Sanders and Trump on: March 10, 2016, 06:07:38 am
Makes sense considering what I assume to be the likely demographics of consumers of pornography websites (youngish men who regularly use the internet).
21  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Corbyn vs the Pigdiddler on: March 10, 2016, 05:37:55 am
A couple of interesting articles about Dan Jarvis MP, a potential contender (or challenger) for the Labour Party Leadership:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/09/dan-jarvis-vision-for-labour-leadership-talk-corbyn-challenge

http://labourlist.org/2016/03/labour-must-go-further-on-tackling-inequality-demands-dan-jarvis/
22  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Osama bin Laden apparently wanted Americans to fight climate change on: March 10, 2016, 05:35:41 am
If that's what he wanted then I'm sure there were better ways of winning hearts and minds...
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: March 01, 2016, 06:50:20 am
On the subject of the potential geography of the result of the referendum, the other day I made the map below.  It shows a very crude regression model of the following variables:

  • UKIP 2015 General election vote share (dependent variable)
  • Conservative 2015 GE vote share (independent variable)
  • Turnout at the 2015 GE (independent variable)
  • 'White British' in 2011 Census (independent variable)
  • Degree or equivalent in 2011 Census (independent variable)
  • Aged 60 and over in 2011 Census (independent variable)

Using this, I divided the Parliamentary Constituencies into quartiles in order to show a hypothetical 'tie' situation:

Dark green = 25% most likely to vote to remain.
Green = the 25% which are likely than the median constituency to vote to remain.
Red = 25% which are less likely than the median constituency to vote to leave.
Dark red = the 25% most likely to vote to leave.

I ran this very arbitrary regression model for a laugh, just to see what the outcome would look like.  It may prove primarily useful for comedy value but I thought it might provoke some interesting discussion nonetheless.

Please feel free to criticize the hell out of this model (I can see a few howlers) as I may be able to change it into something more credible.  There a things said in previous posts pointing out potential problems (Sibboleth's comment about the geography of the UKIP vote, for one thing).

For extra 'fun', I can easily recreate this model to assume different national outcomes upon request, just give me the desired yes/no percentages.



Link to bigger version in gallery:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14405
How did you make this (as in what program did you use)?

I used Excel 2010 for the regression model (using the 'Data Analysis' add-on) and ArcMap to map the results.

fantastic work! but you've a fairly obvious outlier, what on your model tips Thanet South into Remain?
I also can't see Colchester, Chelmsford and Saffron Walden voting In when the rest of Essex is so heavily out, which it will be (ditto for Norfolk North, interesting pattern of residual LibDemmage though)

Yes, that's very strange about Thanet South: I'm wondering if that was an error with the data matching using the ONS codes for the constituencies (I've found mistakes like this before in various datasets of election results).  It could be to do with the relatively high turnout there.  The Lib Dem vote clearly confounds this model too.  The more I look at it the sillier it appears, although I think it does nail it for some areas and probably the two lighter shades give an indication of areas that could go either way..
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: February 26, 2016, 08:49:11 am
Here's a more useful map than the last one, which shows how MPs have said they'll vote (Great Britain only, I'm afraid):



Map created using data from: http://gu.com/p/4hxmj/stw

Green = remain
Red = leave
Grey = undeclared

Two seats are excluded: one neutral (Speaker's seat of Buckingham) and one vacant (Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough).

Bigger version in gallery: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14419

25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: February 25, 2016, 10:05:33 am
For the record, results won't be reported by constituency, but by local authority.

Yes, I should have stated this in my post, given I'd assumed that would be the case (as it was with the Alternative Vote referendum).  However, I didn't have the data I wanted to use by local authority.  I'll probably have another go at a model using variables which are available by local authority (eg Census data).
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