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February 13, 2016, 06:48:06 pm
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders calls for 12 WEEKS of paid leave for every worker in America. on: February 06, 2016, 04:19:55 am

Anyways, post updated from misunderstanding.

Not really a misunderstanding, it's just stupid.

I fully understood the original post. I just thought it was funny that hookers were among the examples of things that everyone would supposedly want in an ideal world..  It seemed like the poster projecting onto other people.
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders calls for 12 WEEKS of paid leave for every worker in America. on: February 05, 2016, 04:53:15 pm
Quote
In my view, every worker in America deserves a GOLD MANSION with hookers and money raining from the sky!

The liberal candyland outlook of no hurt feelings and unearned promise has and will continue to always be a joke. A huge swath of independents would move to the Democratic party if this doesn't exist, it is easily the party's ugliest trait.

I can't help but think the orange text above may say more about the desires of the author than it does about anything anybody else is arguing for politically.
3  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Corbyn vs the Pigdiddler on: February 05, 2016, 09:22:36 am
What a shame. RIP.
4  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Additional UK 2015 General Election maps (and more) on: January 18, 2016, 06:44:13 am
Oops, how could I forget the Lib Dems and their share of the electorate (which was of course higher than that of the Greens):



Larger version here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14110
5  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Additional UK 2015 General Election maps (and more) on: January 18, 2016, 06:41:37 am
Green share of the electorate:



Larger version in the gallery:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14111
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Additional UK 2015 General Election maps (and more) on: January 15, 2016, 01:47:07 pm
The UKIP share of the electorate:



Larger version here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14109
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Additional UK 2015 General Election maps (and more) on: January 15, 2016, 01:44:53 pm
Next up, the Labour share of the electorate:



Larger version:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14108
8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Additional UK 2015 General Election maps (and more) on: January 15, 2016, 01:40:54 pm
The first series of maps concern the share of the electorate (not vote) won by different parties. This takes into account the level of turnout and perhaps serves as an indication of the level of enthusiasm for the different parties in different Parliamentary Constituencies.

First up, the Conservatives:



Larger version in the Gallery:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14107
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Additional UK 2015 General Election maps (and more) on: January 15, 2016, 01:36:51 pm
I thought it would be appropriate to create a new thread, rather than bumping an old one..  I've been playing around with ArcView and data provided by the British Election Study covering the results of the 2015 General Election (Great Britain only I'm afraid) along with the 2010 results and a range of demographic characteristics from the 2011 Census.

These maps are fairly easy to put together so am extremely happy to do requests.
10  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are your geographic extremes on: January 05, 2016, 09:06:42 am
North: Inverness, Scotland
East: Tokyo, Japan
South: Kyoto, Japan
West: Cleveland, Ohio (airport) or Washington DC (excluding airports)
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015-2020 on: December 04, 2015, 06:21:33 am
Nigel Farage's protestations about "some streets where no one spoke English" voting Labour inspired me to take a look at the 2011 Census results.

In using the 2011 Census I'm aware of the caveats that the data is four years old and that not everybody responded (and I assume people who don't speak English are more likely to have not).  However, it's a better source of evidence than anecdotes, even from local people (many people in my local area know nothing about places within a couple of miles of where they live, and the assumptions they do make about them are often wrong, and I've been guilty of that too).

That said, the map below shows the geographic distribution (at Lower Layer Super Output area, which are used just for statistical purposes) of households where nobody has English as their main language.



Given that the the area with the highest concentration of households where nobody has English as their main language for any area is 39%, it is probable that there are a few streets where this also applies to majority (i.e. more than 50%) of households but almost certainly none where this applies to all of them (or even 90%).  The figure across the Oldham council area as a whole is 4.5% (4,060 of 89,703).

However, given that these statistics are for people for whom English is not their main language , rather than just people who don't speak or understand English at all, it looks highly doubtful that there are any streets where a majority of people don't speak or understand English, and practically impossible that there are any streets where nobody speaks or understands English..

Interestingly, the area I pointed to as an example is 90% Bangladeshi in terms of ethnic group, yet 61% of households have somebody who has English as their main language.

I'm not commenting here either way about Mr Farage's suspicions of electoral fraud, just the very dodgy-sounding reason given for them. Of course, these kinds of points wouldn't hold any sway with someone like Nigel Farage, but I'm not trying to have that argument, I'm just trying to satisfy my curiosity as to how full of s*** he really is.
12  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Corbyn vs the Pigdiddler on: September 29, 2015, 05:05:17 am
Can someone explain me what's going on? I'd do a research but I'm too creeped out right now, and in terror of what I may find.

He didn't actually f**k a pig, right?...

As part of a student prank/initiation ritual he put his penis in the mouth of a dead pig, which somebody else was holding.

Well it's unlikely he ever actually was a member of the club which would have done this in the first place, so...

I am not sure the facts really are all that relevant in this case. Often these things takes on a life of their own, voters will never be able to look at Cameron again without thinking: Did he actually do it?

There is an old story about a Danish cabaret star in the 20s whose rival spread a rumor she had had sex with a Saint Bernard. Completely unfounded, of course. Nevertheless the audience started balking at her whenever she went on stage and she eventually had to quit. Later emigrated to Argentina (which would be an ironic place for Cameron to end). Not saying Cameron will meet the same faith, but there is something about accusations of animal sex (and the like) that just tends to stick. It really appeals to human imagination and the coarsest instincts of the public.

Furthermore, this reminds of an excerpt from Hunter S. Thompson’s Fear & Loathing: On The Campaign Trail ’72 about LBJ when running a losing battle for Congress in 1948 against a wealthy pig farmer in Texas:

Quote
The race was close and Johnson was getting worried.  Finally he told his campaign manager to start a massive rumor campaign about his opponent’s life-long habit of enjoying carnal knowledge of his own barnyard sows.
 
“Christ, we can’t get a way calling him a pig-er,” the campaign manager protested.  “Nobody’s going to believe a thing like that.”
 
“I know,” Johnson replied.  “But let’s make the sonofabitch deny it.”
13  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 16, 2015, 01:14:48 pm
We're actually living in that Simpsons episode where Homer becomes sanitation commissioner.

You're thinking of Brighton & Hove City Council a couple of years ago Wink

That said, the very episode you refer to is on TV right now, which is eerie.
14  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 12, 2015, 12:45:02 pm
@ProfTimBale: For the record: #JeremyCorbyn won 49.6% of #Labour members, 85.8% of (£3) registered supporters, & 57.6% of (union) affiliated supporters

Random irrelevant face: he used to be one of my lecturers at University.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: August 21, 2015, 04:09:10 am
I've cast my vote. I did not use all of my preferences. I've also voted in the other contests.

May I ask who you voted for? It would really help me make some sense out of this, so far I still don't really know what to think.

Yea, c'mon! Spill the beans.. Wink
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: August 19, 2015, 04:53:28 am
Quite a lot of Corbyn nominations in all regions, I note.

Not to mention where the majority of Kendall nominations are.
17  General Politics / Individual Politics / Re: Opinion of Atticus Finch? on: July 17, 2015, 03:50:48 pm


This deserves a thousand more credits than it gets.
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: May 07, 2015, 10:01:47 pm
I will most certainly NOT be accepting my accolades. The lesson I've taken is that it's actually harder to predict an election in one's own country than anywhere else, because you've always got something invested in it, even if you'd rather think that not to be the case.
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 12:34:37 pm
For those who are interested, here's the approximate declaration times for each constituency:

http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2015_by_time.php
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread) on: May 07, 2015, 07:22:42 am
I've just voted at my polling station in Brighton Pavilion. It was quiet but I don't think 1pm is a particularly busy time of day. There was both a Labour and Green teller and I've spotted one activist from each around the place.

For what it's worth, the poster war has a clear lead from "re-elect Caroline Lucas" posters, and I live in a competitive ward.
21  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: The UK General Election Prediction Thread on: May 07, 2015, 03:47:34 am
Most of this prediction was put together a week ago or so, so not as sure about it now. However, I don't want to look through every single seat again (which is what I did).  Might as well post it as even a well-informed guess is still just a guess nonetheless..

Vote Shares (GB only)

Conservatives - 32.2%
Labour - 33.4%
Liberal Democrats - 12.5%
UKIP - 11.2%
Greens - 4.2%
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist - 4.5%

Note: I'm predicting Conservatives to narrowly win the popular vote in England.

Seats

Conservatives - 268
Labour - 285
Liberal Democrats - 26
UKIP - 4
Greens - 1
SNP- 43
Plaid- 3
Galloway- 1
Other- 19 (18 NI and 1 Speaker)

Likely Government - Lab minority

Scotland - Vote share and seats

Labour 29.2% (13 seats)
SNP 46.6% (43 seats)
Liberal Democrats 5.5% (1 seat)
Conservative 12.4% (2 seats)
Greens 2.4% (0 seats)
UKIP 2.5% (0 seats)
Others 1.4% (0 seats)

Constituency winner (3 interesting seats per region and Nick Clegg's seat)

Gordon- SNP gain from LD
Glasgow North- SNP gain from Lab
Stirling- SNP gain from Lab

Berwick Upon Tweed- Con gain from LD
Stockton South - Lab gain from Con
Redcar- Lab gain from LD

Bury North- Lab gain from Con
Southport- LD hold
Heywood and Middleton- Lab hold

Rotherham- Lab hold (UKIP second)
Colne Valley- Con hold
Bradford West- Respect gain from by-election
Sheffield Hallam- LD hold

Boston and Skegness- Con hold (UKIP over 20%)
Broxtowe- Lab gain from Con
Loughborough- Con hold

Worcester- Con hold
Dudley South- Con hold
Warwickshire North- Lab gain from Con

Ynys Mon- Lab hold
Ceredigion- LD hold (could be very split))
Vale of Glamorgan- Con hold

Camborne and Redruth- Con hold
Bristol West- Lab GAIN from LD (Greens in second)
Wells- Con GAIN from LD

Brighton Pavillion- Green hold
Thanet South- UKIP gain from Con
Rochester and Strood- UKIP gain from by-election

Kingston and Surbiton - LD hold
Battersea- Con hold
Enfield North- Lab gain from Con

Norwich South- Lab gain from LD (Greens in second)
Clacton- UKIP gain from by-election
Thurrock- UKIP gain from Con

Note: I'm expecting UKIP's support to be particularly concentrated in Kent and Essex
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election - May 7th 2015 on: February 10, 2015, 12:58:41 pm
The Political Compass has published its 2015 UK party chart and analysis: http://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2015

Highlight:
Quote
Traditional Labour voters will largely stick to their old electoral habits, even though the Greens bear a far closer resemblance to the party they supported in the pre–Blairite days

LOL

Their UK party charts are preposterous, to say the least.
23  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: December 23, 2014, 09:52:54 am
I live in Brighon Pavilion, although might not be by the time of the GE.
Brighton Pavilion is an odd seat - why do the Greens do so well there?

Firstly, there are generally favourable demographics - however, I don't have time to give examples without resorting to listing stereotypes (eg the prevalence of hippies, hipsters, students, certain types of professionals) which would be a misrepresentation of both Green voters and the city as whole even though some of such labels might be accurate when applied to myself.  The demographics shifted over the last few decades due to migration from other parts of the UK (London in particular) and from former students of the two universities remaining in the city.

Secondly, the Green Party have had a presence on the local council since 1996, which has expanded to the point whereby, as of 2011, they are now are the largest party and head a not un-controversial minority administration.

Thirdly, the Green Party (as opposed to the Lib Dems) were locally the key beneficiaries disaffection with the 1997-2010 Labour Government over issues such as the UK's involvement in the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Finally, with regards to 2010, the Green Party heavily targetted their resources on this constituency because it was their best change of a win by about a million miles.  The high public profile of the candidate, then-leader Caroline Lucas (who I'm acquianted with and rather a fan of), was definitely a factor in attacting activists from other parts of the UK and in attracting voters locally.  In my opinion any other candidate would probably not have won.
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK General Election 2015 on: December 23, 2014, 08:32:30 am
I live in Brighon Pavilion, although might not be by the time of the GE.
25  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion II on: November 06, 2014, 05:14:38 pm


Oh dear Lewes..
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