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1  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Why trump doing well in the very educated new england region? on: April 13, 2016, 04:09:55 am
The conspiracy theorist in me wants to say it's because (since they are smart) they are pulling a tactic out of the Claire McCaskill playbook: voting for the weakest Republican general election candidate to ensure that Hillary wins.

I hope that they'd be smart enough to be careful what they wish for..
2  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders' best county in Florida? on: March 15, 2016, 11:08:00 am
Not a county but the immediate place that came to mind was Gainesville, which is in Alachua, so I'll go with that.
3  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Poll: Porn-site viewers prefer Sanders and Trump on: March 10, 2016, 06:07:38 am
Makes sense considering what I assume to be the likely demographics of consumers of pornography websites (youngish men who regularly use the internet).
4  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Corbyn vs the Pigdiddler on: March 10, 2016, 05:37:55 am
A couple of interesting articles about Dan Jarvis MP, a potential contender (or challenger) for the Labour Party Leadership:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/09/dan-jarvis-vision-for-labour-leadership-talk-corbyn-challenge

http://labourlist.org/2016/03/labour-must-go-further-on-tackling-inequality-demands-dan-jarvis/
5  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: Osama bin Laden apparently wanted Americans to fight climate change on: March 10, 2016, 05:35:41 am
If that's what he wanted then I'm sure there were better ways of winning hearts and minds...
6  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: March 01, 2016, 06:50:20 am
On the subject of the potential geography of the result of the referendum, the other day I made the map below.  It shows a very crude regression model of the following variables:

  • UKIP 2015 General election vote share (dependent variable)
  • Conservative 2015 GE vote share (independent variable)
  • Turnout at the 2015 GE (independent variable)
  • 'White British' in 2011 Census (independent variable)
  • Degree or equivalent in 2011 Census (independent variable)
  • Aged 60 and over in 2011 Census (independent variable)

Using this, I divided the Parliamentary Constituencies into quartiles in order to show a hypothetical 'tie' situation:

Dark green = 25% most likely to vote to remain.
Green = the 25% which are likely than the median constituency to vote to remain.
Red = 25% which are less likely than the median constituency to vote to leave.
Dark red = the 25% most likely to vote to leave.

I ran this very arbitrary regression model for a laugh, just to see what the outcome would look like.  It may prove primarily useful for comedy value but I thought it might provoke some interesting discussion nonetheless.

Please feel free to criticize the hell out of this model (I can see a few howlers) as I may be able to change it into something more credible.  There a things said in previous posts pointing out potential problems (Sibboleth's comment about the geography of the UKIP vote, for one thing).

For extra 'fun', I can easily recreate this model to assume different national outcomes upon request, just give me the desired yes/no percentages.



Link to bigger version in gallery:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14405
How did you make this (as in what program did you use)?

I used Excel 2010 for the regression model (using the 'Data Analysis' add-on) and ArcMap to map the results.

fantastic work! but you've a fairly obvious outlier, what on your model tips Thanet South into Remain?
I also can't see Colchester, Chelmsford and Saffron Walden voting In when the rest of Essex is so heavily out, which it will be (ditto for Norfolk North, interesting pattern of residual LibDemmage though)

Yes, that's very strange about Thanet South: I'm wondering if that was an error with the data matching using the ONS codes for the constituencies (I've found mistakes like this before in various datasets of election results).  It could be to do with the relatively high turnout there.  The Lib Dem vote clearly confounds this model too.  The more I look at it the sillier it appears, although I think it does nail it for some areas and probably the two lighter shades give an indication of areas that could go either way..
7  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: February 26, 2016, 08:49:11 am
Here's a more useful map than the last one, which shows how MPs have said they'll vote (Great Britain only, I'm afraid):



Map created using data from: http://gu.com/p/4hxmj/stw

Green = remain
Red = leave
Grey = undeclared

Two seats are excluded: one neutral (Speaker's seat of Buckingham) and one vacant (Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough).

Bigger version in gallery: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14419

8  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: February 25, 2016, 10:05:33 am
For the record, results won't be reported by constituency, but by local authority.

Yes, I should have stated this in my post, given I'd assumed that would be the case (as it was with the Alternative Vote referendum).  However, I didn't have the data I wanted to use by local authority.  I'll probably have another go at a model using variables which are available by local authority (eg Census data).
9  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: February 25, 2016, 10:02:58 am
On the subject of the potential geography of the result of the referendum, the other day I made the map below.  It shows a very crude regression model of the following variables:

  • UKIP 2015 General election vote share (dependent variable)
  • Conservative 2015 GE vote share (independent variable)
  • Turnout at the 2015 GE (independent variable)
  • 'White British' in 2011 Census (independent variable)
  • Degree or equivalent in 2011 Census (independent variable)
  • Aged 60 and over in 2011 Census (independent variable)

Using this, I divided the Parliamentary Constituencies into quartiles in order to show a hypothetical 'tie' situation:

Dark green = 25% most likely to vote to remain.
Green = the 25% which are likely than the median constituency to vote to remain.
Red = 25% which are less likely than the median constituency to vote to leave.
Dark red = the 25% most likely to vote to leave.

I ran this very arbitrary regression model for a laugh, just to see what the outcome would look like.  It may prove primarily useful for comedy value but I thought it might provoke some interesting discussion nonetheless.

Please feel free to criticize the hell out of this model (I can see a few howlers) as I may be able to change it into something more credible.  There a things said in previous posts pointing out potential problems (Sibboleth's comment about the geography of the UKIP vote, for one thing).

For extra 'fun', I can easily recreate this model to assume different national outcomes upon request, just give me the desired yes/no percentages.



Link to bigger version in gallery:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14405
How did you make this (as in what program did you use)?

I used Excel 2010 for the regression model (using the 'Data Analysis' add-on) and ArcMap to map the results.
10  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: February 24, 2016, 12:49:05 pm
@Bro-mentum

Hey, just curious: Why do you think that Glasgow NorthEast/East & Banff and Buchan will vote to leave?

I don't think this, the regression model detailed above did.  If any areas in Scotland did vote to leave, I doubt it would be these ones.  Also, please note this is how areas would vote compared to average in a 'tie' type situation.  If the outcome is a 'remain' vote nationally I suspect it would be by a wider margin and therefore said constituencies would probably vote remain.
11  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership on: February 24, 2016, 12:26:55 pm
On the subject of the potential geography of the result of the referendum, the other day I made the map below.  It shows a very crude regression model of the following variables:

  • UKIP 2015 General election vote share (dependent variable)
  • Conservative 2015 GE vote share (independent variable)
  • Turnout at the 2015 GE (independent variable)
  • 'White British' in 2011 Census (independent variable)
  • Degree or equivalent in 2011 Census (independent variable)
  • Aged 60 and over in 2011 Census (independent variable)

Using this, I divided the Parliamentary Constituencies into quartiles in order to show a hypothetical 'tie' situation:

Dark green = 25% most likely to vote to remain.
Green = the 25% which are likely than the median constituency to vote to remain.
Red = 25% which are less likely than the median constituency to vote to leave.
Dark red = the 25% most likely to vote to leave.

I ran this very arbitrary regression model for a laugh, just to see what the outcome would look like.  It may prove primarily useful for comedy value but I thought it might provoke some interesting discussion nonetheless.

Please feel free to criticize the hell out of this model (I can see a few howlers) as I may be able to change it into something more credible.  There a things said in previous posts pointing out potential problems (Sibboleth's comment about the geography of the UKIP vote, for one thing).

For extra 'fun', I can easily recreate this model to assume different national outcomes upon request, just give me the desired yes/no percentages.



Link to bigger version in gallery:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14405
12  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders calls for 12 WEEKS of paid leave for every worker in America. on: February 06, 2016, 04:19:55 am

Anyways, post updated from misunderstanding.

Not really a misunderstanding, it's just stupid.

I fully understood the original post. I just thought it was funny that hookers were among the examples of things that everyone would supposedly want in an ideal world..  It seemed like the poster projecting onto other people.
13  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion / 2016 U.S. Presidential Election / Re: Sanders calls for 12 WEEKS of paid leave for every worker in America. on: February 05, 2016, 04:53:15 pm
Quote
In my view, every worker in America deserves a GOLD MANSION with hookers and money raining from the sky!

The liberal candyland outlook of no hurt feelings and unearned promise has and will continue to always be a joke. A huge swath of independents would move to the Democratic party if this doesn't exist, it is easily the party's ugliest trait.

I can't help but think the orange text above may say more about the desires of the author than it does about anything anybody else is arguing for politically.
14  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Corbyn vs the Pigdiddler on: February 05, 2016, 09:22:36 am
What a shame. RIP.
15  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Additional UK 2015 General Election maps (and more) on: January 18, 2016, 06:44:13 am
Oops, how could I forget the Lib Dems and their share of the electorate (which was of course higher than that of the Greens):



Larger version here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14110
16  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Additional UK 2015 General Election maps (and more) on: January 18, 2016, 06:41:37 am
Green share of the electorate:



Larger version in the gallery:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14111
17  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Additional UK 2015 General Election maps (and more) on: January 15, 2016, 01:47:07 pm
The UKIP share of the electorate:



Larger version here:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14109
18  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Additional UK 2015 General Election maps (and more) on: January 15, 2016, 01:44:53 pm
Next up, the Labour share of the electorate:



Larger version:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14108
19  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Additional UK 2015 General Election maps (and more) on: January 15, 2016, 01:40:54 pm
The first series of maps concern the share of the electorate (not vote) won by different parties. This takes into account the level of turnout and perhaps serves as an indication of the level of enthusiasm for the different parties in different Parliamentary Constituencies.

First up, the Conservatives:



Larger version in the Gallery:
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14107
20  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Additional UK 2015 General Election maps (and more) on: January 15, 2016, 01:36:51 pm
I thought it would be appropriate to create a new thread, rather than bumping an old one..  I've been playing around with ArcView and data provided by the British Election Study covering the results of the 2015 General Election (Great Britain only I'm afraid) along with the 2010 results and a range of demographic characteristics from the 2011 Census.

These maps are fairly easy to put together so am extremely happy to do requests.
21  Forum Community / Forum Community / Re: What are your geographic extremes on: January 05, 2016, 09:06:42 am
North: Inverness, Scotland
East: Tokyo, Japan
South: Kyoto, Japan
West: Cleveland, Ohio (airport) or Washington DC (excluding airports)
22  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015-2020 on: December 04, 2015, 06:21:33 am
Nigel Farage's protestations about "some streets where no one spoke English" voting Labour inspired me to take a look at the 2011 Census results.

In using the 2011 Census I'm aware of the caveats that the data is four years old and that not everybody responded (and I assume people who don't speak English are more likely to have not).  However, it's a better source of evidence than anecdotes, even from local people (many people in my local area know nothing about places within a couple of miles of where they live, and the assumptions they do make about them are often wrong, and I've been guilty of that too).

That said, the map below shows the geographic distribution (at Lower Layer Super Output area, which are used just for statistical purposes) of households where nobody has English as their main language.



Given that the the area with the highest concentration of households where nobody has English as their main language for any area is 39%, it is probable that there are a few streets where this also applies to majority (i.e. more than 50%) of households but almost certainly none where this applies to all of them (or even 90%).  The figure across the Oldham council area as a whole is 4.5% (4,060 of 89,703).

However, given that these statistics are for people for whom English is not their main language , rather than just people who don't speak or understand English at all, it looks highly doubtful that there are any streets where a majority of people don't speak or understand English, and practically impossible that there are any streets where nobody speaks or understands English..

Interestingly, the area I pointed to as an example is 90% Bangladeshi in terms of ethnic group, yet 61% of households have somebody who has English as their main language.

I'm not commenting here either way about Mr Farage's suspicions of electoral fraud, just the very dodgy-sounding reason given for them. Of course, these kinds of points wouldn't hold any sway with someone like Nigel Farage, but I'm not trying to have that argument, I'm just trying to satisfy my curiosity as to how full of s*** he really is.
23  General Politics / International General Discussion / Re: UK General Discussion: Corbyn vs the Pigdiddler on: September 29, 2015, 05:05:17 am
Can someone explain me what's going on? I'd do a research but I'm too creeped out right now, and in terror of what I may find.

He didn't actually f**k a pig, right?...

As part of a student prank/initiation ritual he put his penis in the mouth of a dead pig, which somebody else was holding.

Well it's unlikely he ever actually was a member of the club which would have done this in the first place, so...

I am not sure the facts really are all that relevant in this case. Often these things takes on a life of their own, voters will never be able to look at Cameron again without thinking: Did he actually do it?

There is an old story about a Danish cabaret star in the 20s whose rival spread a rumor she had had sex with a Saint Bernard. Completely unfounded, of course. Nevertheless the audience started balking at her whenever she went on stage and she eventually had to quit. Later emigrated to Argentina (which would be an ironic place for Cameron to end). Not saying Cameron will meet the same faith, but there is something about accusations of animal sex (and the like) that just tends to stick. It really appeals to human imagination and the coarsest instincts of the public.

Furthermore, this reminds of an excerpt from Hunter S. Thompson’s Fear & Loathing: On The Campaign Trail ’72 about LBJ when running a losing battle for Congress in 1948 against a wealthy pig farmer in Texas:

Quote
The race was close and Johnson was getting worried.  Finally he told his campaign manager to start a massive rumor campaign about his opponent’s life-long habit of enjoying carnal knowledge of his own barnyard sows.
 
“Christ, we can’t get a way calling him a pig-er,” the campaign manager protested.  “Nobody’s going to believe a thing like that.”
 
“I know,” Johnson replied.  “But let’s make the sonofabitch deny it.”
24  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 16, 2015, 01:14:48 pm
We're actually living in that Simpsons episode where Homer becomes sanitation commissioner.

You're thinking of Brighton & Hove City Council a couple of years ago Wink

That said, the very episode you refer to is on TV right now, which is eerie.
25  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion / International Elections / Re: Labour Party leadership election 2015 on: September 12, 2015, 12:45:02 pm
@ProfTimBale: For the record: #JeremyCorbyn won 49.6% of #Labour members, 85.8% of (£3) registered supporters, & 57.6% of (union) affiliated supporters

Random irrelevant face: he used to be one of my lecturers at University.
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