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August 24, 2016, 08:51:58 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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 on: Today at 08:51:35 am 
Started by TN volunteer - Last post by I did not see L.A.
Yeah, Florida is one of the 5 worst States.

 on: Today at 08:50:51 am 
Started by ░▒▓████▓▒░ wow neat ░▒▓████▓▒░ - Last post by LLR
Changed religions; I am now a Beta Jew.  Hoping to become an Alpha Jew one day.

Welcome to the club. Hopefully you can join us at the top some day.

(Shouldn't they be Aleph and Bet Jews though?)

Of course. Only a Bet Jew wouldn't know that.

א Jews unite!

 on: Today at 08:50:41 am 
Started by Helsinkian - Last post by I did not see L.A.
Oh, that makes sense. I read that post to mean Chicago had no rail at all. Trams definitely have their own issues, and they require designing lines that don't interfere with traffic too much. I imagine that would be even harder in US, where cities are built almost entirely for the convenience of drivers.

 on: Today at 08:49:54 am 
Started by Rep. Elect 1184AZ - Last post by Adam T
10% (actually, he is at 11%) isn't popular at all, really. But he is in 4th place, behind MacKay (might not run), O'Leary (probably won't run) and Kenney (will not run). So, who knows.

I'm picking Leitch as the underground Brownesque candidate right now. But that's based on circumstantial evidence.

Ehh... maybe it's soon to count out Raitt after all. We'll see. 

Did that poll also give Bernier's level of support in Quebec?  My guess is that if Bernier is at 11% nationally, he's probably at between 20-25% in Quebec.

 on: Today at 08:49:39 am 
Started by TimTurner - Last post by LLR
I'd definitely recommend you to rework some of these boundaries. What looks nice on a map isn't always what makes sense culturally or economically for an area, and I think maps get a lot better when you take that into account. There's a lot to like about your map, so I think it could become really neat with just a few tweaks.
Thanks. You were a vital inspiration for this, so I value your input. I won't tinker all that much with my current lines, but I will look at uniting some CoI that aren't united right now.
The Bay area split is not going to be touched, fyi. My partner already did data for Oso.  He would loath having to redo it.

If you gotta fix the Bay Area, I'm fine with it. I haven't even done the demographic data for Oso yet, and that's the only part that I "loath"

 on: Today at 08:48:12 am 
Started by Seriously? - Last post by Wiz in Wis
This is actually Trumps worst performance in this particular poll... He was up 3 in January, and he was up 8 in November 2015. Seems like these guys only report once a semester. Wink

 on: Today at 08:48:00 am 
Started by Seriously? - Last post by Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
FAU did Spanish-language polling for GE match-ups prior to the Florida primary, but the crosstabs here don't have nearly as much detail as those did, so it's tough to see if that continued.

 on: Today at 08:47:50 am 
Started by Senator Scott - Last post by TimTurner

I got some inspiration from Tony.
This is a work in progress as regards to names. Borders are final though.

Your division of Oregon/Kootenai makes no sense to me. At the very least, Latah County must be in Oregon (there aren't even any real roads connecting Latah with most of Clearwater/Shoshone), and Kootenai County, ID could go either way.
I will add a county in ID to Kootenai provide a better road connection to Latah. 

 on: Today at 08:47:33 am 
Started by Speed of Sound - Last post by psychprofessor
Remember, PPP is all robo calls, likely underestimating Hispanic support for Clinton.

Except polls (PPP or not) were strikingly accurate in 2012:


In 2008, PPP also got New Mexico right while everyone else got it wrong:


On Election Day, the claim that polls "underestimate Hispanic support" will look like the Romney campaign's claim that the polls "oversampled minorities and registered Democrats."

Yeah that +5 at a similar point in time was quite accurate.

 on: Today at 08:46:58 am 
Started by Dwarven Dragon - Last post by LLR
I love when people take joke threads seriously...

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