I'm sorry, but stand by my statement. Duda's base is already mobilized and he's got no room to expand. Komorowski has reserves, but it's all depends on turnout. 51% is unusually high for Poland (sadly). PiS is historically doing well with low turnout.
Giving me your U.S. predictions when we're discussing Polish politics is immaterial. I won't dispute your mathematical skills, but it's obvious your familiarity with Polish political reality is obviously not as good, as evident, for example, with your trust in the Polish polling just like it's American polling.
I was working and living 2 yrs in Warsaw for my then company toshiba, so don't underestimed my knowlegde of Polish political reality, bro.
With some old Polish friends i'm still in touch.
Anyway, i don't think 51% turnout is high even for Polish standards in presidential elections.
Turnout in the past presidential el.:
2000: 1R- 61.12 %
2005: 1R- 49.74% 2R-50.99%
2010: 1R- 54.94% 2R-55.31% (i know Smolensk disaster)
2015: 1R- 48.96% 2R- ?