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October 02, 2014, 07:33:28 am
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News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

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 on: Today at 06:09:13 am 
Started by FreedomHawk - Last post by eric82oslo
I think the Libertarian party could get serious influence in certain parts of the country, in certain states, but probably not surpass the GOP in popularity in every part of the country. Just like the Green party will never become a giant in West Virginia, the Libertarian party will struggle in gaining adherents in deeply religious and conservative states like Mississippi. Maine could perhaps be the first state where the Libertarian party becomes a major one, thanks to its independent nature, it being one of the three near-complete-non-religious states and due to Libertarian thoughts already infiltrating both local parties there and in particular the Democratic party (I'm sure many people already think of Shenna Bellows as more of a Libertarian rather than a Democrat for instance).

So, the Green party might become massive in California and Washington one day, just like the Libertarian party might see the same rise in Maine, and possibly neighbouring New Hampshire and Vermont too. There are way too many religious people in the US for the GOP to start moving in a less theocratic, more pluralistic and non-religious way any time soon. Remember that according to a recent Pew poll, a clear majority of adult Americans actually want to see the major parties move in a more religious direction, not in a less one.

 on: Today at 06:04:46 am 
Started by Tender Branson - Last post by Dixiecrat

 on: Today at 06:04:05 am 
Started by politicus - Last post by politicus
Result of round 7:


The pastor 9
Mondale 8
RickRoll 6

 on: Today at 05:27:25 am 
Started by JRP1994 - Last post by Speaker SWE
What a terrible human being and President Sad

 on: Today at 05:09:11 am 
Started by HockeyDude - Last post by R2D2
Some of it is pretty cool, but other times it can be really, really weird...

 on: Today at 04:59:00 am 
Started by Miles - Last post by Vega
Remember when Brownback was supposed to surge in October because of Kansas Republicans coming home, but the same wouldn't happen to Quinn in Illinois because nobody liked him? Good times.

Correction: Brownback will still win. Quinn will now win because his state his home to many, many more idiots. 

{insert obligatory Sarkozy, Santorum or any other prediction Phil has made here}

Joking aside, it'll tighten obviously, but I think Davis will squeak out a win.

 on: Today at 04:56:37 am 
Started by Nutmeg - Last post by Vega
That was unexpected. Doubt it'll actually help Catania, though.

Yeah, has anyone outside of Vermont even heard of Shumlin?

Even if they did, he doesn't really relate with D.C. at all. Vermont and D.C. are pretty much as opposite as you can get for states who both voted for Obama in 2012.

 on: Today at 04:54:51 am 
Started by Miles - Last post by Vega
The governor's races being contested are extremely broad this year.

Rhode Island, Hawaii, Maryland, Oklahoma, Idaho.....

(Note:  "Contested" doesn't mean tossup.  I just mean that there's significant activity/ad spending going on)

In Hawaii all that the DGA need do is produce a low budget ad saying "DAVID IGE IS A DEMOCRAT", and repeat it about a hundred times per day, and he'll win by 30 points.

 on: Today at 04:25:39 am 
Started by Velasco - Last post by Velasco
Oh I briefly lived in Opañel in Carabanchel for one month. I imagine there the result was more conventional...

It was in the range of the Carabanchel district. PP plurality below the city average; PSOE, IU and Podemos slightly above average.

PP 30.67%; PSOE 21.59%; IU 12.55%, Podemos 11.28%, UPyD 8.65%, Cs 3.15%, Vox 2.63%, PE 1.74%. Valid votes cast: 10481.

LoL at La Castellana. I go through there almost every day, but didn't know it was such an ugly place. TBH, the Socialist Youth usually goes there to distribute propaganda. Maybe we should search another place... Which is the friendlier one for us in the centre-centre/north of Madrid?

La Castellana and Plaza de Colón are nodal transit points. I guess that's the reason why the Socialist Youth goes there to distribute leaflets. For obvious reasons, proselitism among residents in Castellana and Recoletos sounds like a waste of time. PP scored above 80% in La Castellana in the 2011 elections.

Recoletos (Salamanca): PP 57.15%, Vox 10.11%, PSOE 7.38%, Cs 6.45%, UPyD 5.85%, IU 3%, Podemos 2.94%, PE 1.33%. Valid votes cast: 6329.

The Vox Party came second in some Chamartín neighbourhoods, all of them obvious PP strongholds: El Viso (10.55%), Hispanoamérica (10.25%) and Nueva España (9.45%).

It's hard to find neighbourhoods north of the Madrid centre where PSOE scored above 20%. I'll make a summary of best neighbourhoods by district, including San Blas in the east periphery.

Centro (16.04% on average): No great differences between neighbourhoods. The best for PSOE were Embajadores (16.51%) and Justicia (16.4%).

Salamanca (10.95%): Fuente del Berro (15.16%).

Chamartín (10.53%): Prosperidad (13.77%).

Tetuán (17.2%): Almenara (21.2%), Berruguete (20.11%), Bellas Vistas (19.66%) and Valdeacederas (19.53%).

Chamberí (12.11%): Trafalgar (14.31%) and Arapiles (14.09%).

Fuencarral-El Pardo (16.25%): Barrio del Pilar (21.41%) and La Paz (18.58%).

Moncloa-Aravaca (13.4%): Valdezarza (18.33%).

Ciudad Lineal (17.68%): Pueblonuevo (21.81%) and Ventas (20.91%).

Hortaleza (17.48%): Pinar del Rey (21.04%) and Canillas (19.85%).

Barajas (16%): Aeropuerto (25.81%, plurality) and the Barajas old quarter (23.07%). Only 430 valid votes cast in the neighbourhood next to the airport.

San Blas-Canillejas (20.68%): Amposta (29.4%, plurality), Hellín (27.93%, plurality), Simancas (26.85%, plurality), Arcos (22.52%) and Rosas (21.52%).

 on: Today at 04:25:28 am 
Started by Kalwejt - Last post by Kalwejt
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej (Democratic Left Alliance)

In opposition
Last election: Fifth place and 8.2% (27 seats)

Once a major political force, SLD is yet to recover from the 2005 disastrous loss, I've been mentioning above (caused mostly by internal infighting and major corruption scandals, like Rywingate).

Officially formed as a party in 1999, SLD was previously a broad coalition of various left-wing parties, dominated by post-communist SdRP. Due to prevailing strength of SdPR's apparatus, a former communist politicians, such as Kwaśniewski (former Jaruzelski's Minister) and Miller (former Politburo member), controlled first coalition, and then party. After a brief period of experimentation with fresh faces (Olejniczak, Napieralski), Miller returned to the leadership after 2011 election, when SLD got their worst result ever.

Interestingly, while the former opposition has a strong left wing (politicians like Jacek Kuroń comes to mind), attempts to form a viable "post-Solidarity" left party failed, causing them to either switch to SLD (Celiński, Labuda) or remain and face marginalization (Kuroń).

SLD was a senior government party from 1993 to 1997 and from 2001 to 2005.

On a personal note, I've been a reluctant SLD voter until 2011. Reluctant, because of disappointments with Miller government (such as Iraq War, stubborn third-wayism when the fade was already dying worldwide, spineless when it comes to dealing with the Church political influence), as well as my family's history under Communism.

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