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December 04, 2016, 03:24:21 am
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News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

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 41 
 on: Today at 02:21:56 am 
Started by Meeker - Last post by Alcon
Clinton ran up the numbers so much in eastern King County. I doubt there will ever again be so much polarization between King County and the rest of the state. Also, did Johnson win a few precincts in the Yakima Valley?

He won three small precincts in Benton County -- two of them 2-0, and one of them 2-1 over Trump.  "Write-in" also won two precincts, one in Benton County (4-1 over Trump) and a one-vote precinct in Yakima County.  A lot of them are coincidentally clustered in same general part of the middle of nowhere.

 42 
 on: Today at 02:21:10 am 
Started by Blue3 - Last post by Blue3
Osama was also trying to convince people to join him to stop climate change by evil corporate Westerners...

 43 
 on: Today at 02:20:56 am 
Started by realisticidealist - Last post by ExtremeRepublican
I had been working for a long time on a mega-gerrymander with tons of snake-like states, and, just when I had Hillary down to the mid-40s (confined entirely to parts of the SF Bay Area, LA County, and NYC), I accidentally hit the "see how arbitrary our system is link instead of the move button!  Now, it's all gone!

 44 
 on: Today at 02:20:12 am 
Started by Non Swing Voter - Last post by TN Volunteer
Left - Vermont, maybe.
Right - Utah, obviously.

 45 
 on: Today at 02:19:39 am 
Started by Frodo - Last post by Cory
Health care for everyone that wants it and can pay for it.  No coverage for pre-existing conditions, that's not how insurance works.  No single payer public option.  You want it, go out and buy it in the free market.
If a person is is in the military, or is a disabled veteran, then of course full coverage.

Take 30 sleeping pills and drink a bottle of wine before you go to sleep tonight please.

 46 
 on: Today at 02:16:49 am 
Started by Frodo - Last post by Chickenhawk
If your objective is to purge all the moderates from the Democratic Party (the conservatives are long-gone), then good luck winning in the 2020 general election.  You'll just have to manage it on your own.  I certainly won't lift a finger to help you, or vote for your nominee.  And I doubt I'll be alone with that sentiment.  

That's a little rich considering the attitude y'all take toward Progs who didn't want to vote for your nominee. For the record I did vote for Clinton and, God help me, will vote for awful Democratic caniddates in the future. I even went and knocked doors during GOTV for a coordinated campaign. Because despite it all I actually care about this train-wreck of a party.

But in any case, I don't think the Dems need the votes of dyed in the wool moderates. In fact, since they tend to be affluent, coastal suburbanites that alienate the rest of the country from the party, I think we'll do quite a bit better.

 47 
 on: Today at 02:16:41 am 
Started by Non Swing Voter - Last post by Dwarven Dragon
Do you think you're really representing Oregon if you're just doing what Portland wants? Do you think you're really representing Minnesota if you're just doing what Mpls/St. Paul wants? Do you think you're really representing Georgia if you're just doing what Atlanta wants? No, you're not.

 48 
 on: Today at 02:12:24 am 
Started by jman123 - Last post by jimrtex
Any update on this? Most recent data?

Going off of Wisconsin's latest spreadsheet from today, and not including Milwaukee County which is being done differently than the others, then with about 30% of the state recounted, Trump has gained 245 votes, Clinton has gained 398 votes, Johnson 68, Stein 46; Clinton has netted 153 votes so far, which is better than she was on pace for before, but she's still very, very far from anything substantive changing.
Mostly they are onesies and twosies.

Dane is +25 for Clinton, but that includes +18 from one ward in the city of Monona. Madison is not recounted yet. Drop out Monona, and it is conceivable that Trump is increasing his vote share.

Iowa County. The Village of Avoca was 108T:105C. The recount shows 215T:375C. The total vote for all candidates is 634 votes, in a village with a 637 residents.

Looking at the alphabetically adjacent villages:
Arena: 2012: 120R:313O; 2016: 150T:223O
Barneveld: 2012: 181R:426O; 2016: 215T:375O

So Trump gained some, and Clinton lost more.

But I just noticed that the Avoca "recount" matches the Barneveld original count. So they entered the Barneveld recount on the Avova recount row.


Manitowoc/Town of Centerville. A note says that a bag with 24 ballots was not counted on election day. But the town was 70% Trump, and it appears that the bag was 24-0 Clinton. It sounds like something like the Maine recount.


Milwaukee

The city of Milwaukee is recounting their absentees separately from election day ballots, and Clinton is down about 15,000 votes.

The city of St.Francis shows a change from:

Trump 3634: Clinton 3576 (original)
Trump 2002: Clinton 2676 (recount)
Trump 1632: Clinton 900 (loss)

The lost votes are 65% Trump. I suspect they may originally have run absentee ballots through the scanners twice. The recount looks more like Johnson Feingold and 2012

Johnson 2202: Feingold 2657
Romney 2296: Obama 2977

And the trend looks similar to Cudahy. A city tucked in between the airport and a city named after a meatpacker is likely not the leafiest of suburbs.

So this may be the first real change, about +732 to Clinton.

Sauk. The December 2 report showed the Town of Woodland almost disappearing. But it appears that the recount for the Village of Cazenovia was entered on the wrong line. Only a tiny bit of the village is in Sauk County (7 total votes), with most in Richland County.

The December 3 report corrects this.

Walworth.

Town of La Grange: Gain of +63 Trump, +81 Clinton, +10 Johnson provides a better match to the senate race, both for candidates and votes cast.

Washburn.

Town of Bashaw +31 Trump due to error in original certification.

 49 
 on: Today at 02:10:42 am 
Started by Non Swing Voter - Last post by Skill and Chance
Like it matters

Yes, the will of the people doesn't matter.  We should divide every republican state in half so Republicans can also have a 2/3 senate majority while over 50% of the country finds their policies abhorrent. 

The fact of the matter is the electoral college is not supposed to be a reflection of the popular vote. The idea of the electoral college is that your victory is geographically spread, so you can't win by getting 90% of the vote in NY, CA, IL, FL and TX while disregarding everyone else. Remember this map:



While it's true that you could win the EC by winning only the 11 biggest states, in practice those 11 states never agree politically. Victories always end up being geographically spread and always will.

Voting Trump was never an option for me, and if I lived in PA or WI, I probably would have held my nose for HRC in the end (I voted for Gary Johnson). But despite that, this cycle has made me see the wisdom in the electoral college. It gives all parts of the country a voice. The fact is that America is more than just Urban Areas. It's the suburban and rural areas too. Without the electoral college, they'd be left in the dust as candidates would simply campaign in the most urban counties and only there. The rest of the country would be left to rot, treated as simply "space", when it's honestly much more than that. It showed that this year.

And of course, the electoral college allows a maneuver to save the country when a truly dangerous character is elected, through faithless electors, a maneuver which honestly should be exercised this year.

It's time to realize that the electoral college is the best system for a country as large as ours.


Even if you were going for a narrow, all urban win in a popular vote system, that map shows that it would still require campaigning in 35 states (36 if Orleans Parish is supposed to be shaded- I can't quite tell).  There are currently only about 10 swing states, counting generously.  If that map is the worst case scenario for NPV, what is there to be so afraid of?

 50 
 on: Today at 02:03:25 am 
Started by 3D X 31 - Last post by TDAS04
Death penalty

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