Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 13, 2016, 05:56:28 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10

 51 
 on: Today at 03:15:26 am 
Started by Hillary pays minimum wage - Last post by Senator North Carolina Yankee
I believe that the last 2 elections were flukes in North Carolina.  In 2008, Obama didn't make a play for NC until after the financial collapse.  After that, the stars lined up perfectly for him.  The financial crisis hit Charlotte hard.  Black turnout was historic for Obama.  Even after all this, Obama barely eked the state out by half a point.  In 2012, Black turnout was again historically high, and Romney had all sorts of problems with evangelical voters because he was a Mormon.  Yet he still won the state by 2 points.  If in future elections ,black turnout drops back to where it was in 2000 and 2004, I think that NC is off the table as a swing state. 

Romney turned out more Evengelicals than Bush 2004 did (26% of the Electorate as opposed to 23%) and both got the same 78% among that group.

 52 
 on: Today at 03:07:01 am 
Started by Moderate Hero Republican - Last post by Anton Kreitzer
Kasich/Bush

 53 
 on: Today at 03:06:28 am 
Started by Hillary pays minimum wage - Last post by Senator North Carolina Yankee
The real answer is 1932. The New Deal coalition meant that the NE would default to the Democrats with the big city machines and unions, followed by the strong African-American support that started in 1936. 

Republicans could win when turnout dropped and Democrats were unpopular like 1946 or when they had a popular General as President like 1952. But when they pissed the unions off, or the economy went bad, it was brutal (1948, 1958 and 1974). The Republicans couldn't win and sustain themselves on level high enough to get the majorities in Congress while being excluded from two regions. So they had to either deal and move to reflect the new reality, or look to craft a Conservative coalition in a different region. In so doing that over time alienated the populations that were part of their original, natural but now outvoted GOP base. However, it should be noted that said group was changing as well.

Religion decline massively amongst Protestants in the North and at the same time Environmentalism became really big in those same rural areas like Vermont. So the natural population of WASPs is now moving more and more left, and even more than that you had a massive influx of people like Sanders. Vermont would vote more like Maine if it were not for those migrations of left wingers, just like New Hampshire would vote more like Maine were it not for the in-migration of those Conservatives during the same time period.

The decline of religion at the same time the GOP was re-ambracing it caused the problem, not embracing it out of the blue alienating a historically secular base. The GOP had long been tied to Protestant zealotry in many areas. Second of all, for those increasingly secular voters who were lower middle and working class, the embrace of the sunbelt economic policies, removed those policies that could keep them on economic issues. So once again the native populations in places like those along the upper Mississippi and rural New England meant that neither wedge issues, nor economic ones provided any pull for those voters to vote Republican.

Finally, you have the death knell for the GOP in the suburbs of that region in 1992 once the recession hammered white collar people, people who thought themselves secured from such, and that it happned during a Republican Presidency, delegitimized them on the kitchen table issues at the same time that now not only Protestant, but Catholic religiousity was slipping and social issues would prove alienating. I agree, NJ was lost as a competative state in the 1990's.

 54 
 on: Today at 03:05:50 am 
Started by Tetro Kornbluth - Last post by Moderate Hero Republican
Hey look the stealth Updating continues!

X BRTD

He's still here

 55 
 on: Today at 03:04:08 am 
Started by Moderate Hero Republican - Last post by Moderate Hero Republican
Webb with the early lead

 56 
 on: Today at 03:03:06 am 
Started by Zen Lunatic - Last post by Moderate Hero Republican
FF

 57 
 on: Today at 03:02:39 am 
Started by Moderate Hero Republican - Last post by Moderate Hero Republican
I mean I dont even think the Millianialls were as liberal economically as the greatest were.

 58 
 on: Today at 03:00:20 am 
Started by Zen Lunatic - Last post by DarkandStormy
As a native NYer and living in one of the most affluent neighborhoods in Brooklyn - it will overwhelmingly be Hillary. Her campaign HQ are in BK and most importantly the primary is all the way in April.

 59 
 on: Today at 02:58:51 am 
Started by youngohioan216 - Last post by Moderate Hero Republican
Nah I think  hes the Democratic 1988 Pat Robertson(not nearly as crazy though) mixed in with Bob Dole while Hillary is the HW Bush of this cycle.

 60 
 on: Today at 02:57:37 am 
Started by Wulfric - Last post by DarkandStormy
I think personally he is running to be a supreme court justice. He knows that his eligibility is murky. Plus, he has a lot of baggage and is polarizing. He has raised of a ton of money. I think his wife will most likely be appointed to his senate seat should he be appointed to the court.

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines