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January 30, 2015, 11:00:00 pm
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 51 
 on: Today at 09:59:46 pm 
Started by Mr. Morden - Last post by mattyman
Well, this means that Rand Paul can win Utah.

Surely this will benefit Rand Paul in Nevada more than anywhere else? I think Romney's exit will help Paul's (In Nevada, New Hampshire).

 52 
 on: Today at 09:59:08 pm 
Started by Phony Moderate - Last post by Thomas from NJ
Just a quick question for those who have been following this longer then I have:

What's the path to a Conservative Government?

Their best case scenario has them losing a dozen seats. The Lib Dems aren't going to help them again, and probably won't have the seats to do it even if they wanted to.
The SNP may have the seats but they'd never form a Government with the Conservatives. And UKIP will only have 5 seats or so.

So how does Cameron stay in office?

If they only need 12 more seats, they could enlist the help of both UKIP and the DUP...

 53 
 on: Today at 09:57:10 pm 
Started by Talleyrand - Last post by Senator Polnut
Well, I voted.

Anyway, I'll predict something like:

2PP
LNP: 52.2%
ALP: 47.9%

LNP - 45
ALP - 38
Crossbench - 6

Newman to lose Ashgrove but probably reenter parliament on a by-election.

I would be startled if that happens... the LNP will want to blame Newman and Abbott and move on. I'm expecting a civil war between the Libs and Nats - the Nats have been furious at Newman and the Southern Liberals for being too SE-centric ... the Ns will be trying to restore their position.

 54 
 on: Today at 09:56:43 pm 
Started by Deus Naturae - Last post by ElectionsGuy
Ugh, I hope the Republicans try to block her.

 55 
 on: Today at 09:54:01 pm 
Started by Talleyrand - Last post by beatrice
Well, I voted.

Anyway, I'll predict something like:

2PP
LNP: 52.2%
ALP: 47.9%

LNP - 45
ALP - 38
Crossbench - 6

Newman to lose Ashgrove but probably reenter parliament on a by-election.

 56 
 on: Today at 09:51:46 pm 
Started by Carpetbagger - Last post by Carpetbagger
I bet there were also a few leftists who cast a protest votes against Obama but were totally unaware of Baldwin's views.

Well, he was against the War on Drugs and the War on Terror.  Maybe some people only knew that part?

How would they have found out about these without learning about his other views?

I could imagine that someone promoting Baldwin could have told a few leftists about these positions and they never bothered to look him up?  Baldwin himself claims to have told Obama supporters that Obama would continue the war on terror, so there was some outreach done to liberals.  IIRC Virgil Goode attempted to reach out to Democrats.
I would be very surprised if in this modern day, people wouldn't at least look someone they don't know up before they vote for them.

Well, a lot of Gary Johnson voters only knew that he wanted to legalize weed.

 57 
 on: Today at 09:50:42 pm 
Started by Talleyrand - Last post by Senator Polnut
Final prediction

TPP
LNP: 51.4%
ALP: 48.6%

Seat count
LNP: 47
ALP: 37
Cross-bench: 5

But this could easily go either way - we could see the LNP get to 50-51 or move into hung parliament territory. It all comes down to where the swings are and how the exhaustion rate operates. FTR, I think the TPP based on the primaries in the polling is over-stating the LNP's position - particularly for key marginals. Frankly, this one is much harder to call than SA.

 58 
 on: Today at 09:50:41 pm 
Started by old timey villain - Last post by morgieb
I guess there might be the odd populist Dem who didn't like Republicans but agreed with Wallace's style more? This would be more common had say Muskie or some other Dem won the nomination though. In particular there wouldn't be that many Wallace voters who voted for Ford over Carter, for example.

 59 
 on: Today at 09:50:01 pm 
Started by Eraserhead - Last post by Lief
Quote
The most depressing thing about Bushie's obesity is that it's a result of eating bland, boring, bad food. If he were obese because he snacked on buttery croissants and rare steaks with creamy sauces and duck-fat fried potatoes on the side with tasty beers the whole day, that would be one thing, but he's obese because he eats 3-4 servings of twinkies and sloppy joes for each of his meals, and washes them down with cans and cans of carbonated water mixed with corn syrup.

Whoever posted that was a very smart man.

That said, I cannot wait for the 300-Pound Weigh-In Spectacular! Could be one of the best episodes in Update history.

 60 
 on: Today at 09:49:25 pm 
Started by Intell - Last post by stegosaurus
Me:
2004: John Kerry
2008: G: John McCain P: Rudy Giuliani
2012: G: Mitt Romney P: Mitt Romney

Dad:
Never voted until 2004 for Kerry, then in 2008 voted for Obama. Resumed not voting until his passing this past August

Mom:
1976 - Jimmy Carter
1980 - Jimmy Carter
1984 - Ronald Reagan
1988 - Michael Dukakis
1992-1996: Bill Clinton
2000: Al Gore
2004: John Kerry
2008: John McCain (She's a Clinton PUMA)
2012: No vote


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