2013 Elections in Germany

[Beezer]

Unlikely, they'll just change to suit the times, as all large parties do.

The neoliberal re-orientation ("third way", "Agenda 2010" in Germany) was such an attempt to suit the times. We see the results.

I think the argument can be made that if the SPD had truly embraced Schröder's reforms (the way most Labour supporters accepted New Labour), it wouldn't be in the pitiful state that it is in right now. Instead major infighting ensued with SPD candidates (sometimes the same people) applauding as well as simultaneously lambasting Schröder for his reforms, while those on the left now consider the party to be too neo-liberal while center-right voters won't entrust a party with their vote if they feel it is going to raise taxes and increase social expenditure in any meaningful way.

[Beezer]

I think the argument can be made that if the SPD had truly embraced Schröder's reforms (the way most Labour supporters accepted New Labour)

Sorry, but most Labour supporters haven't accepted New Labour, and the only way SPD could've replicated it is if they'd brought in two-party FPTP, effectively leaving the left no alternative but to hold their nose and vote to keep the right out, else waste their vote or stay at home.

The already faltering New Labour project came crashing down at the party's feet, as all the chickens came home to roost leading up to the 2010 GE, and an awkward sounding wonk has been elected leader since then mainly on the basis of keeping the continuity candidate out.

Compared to the SPD, Labour's move to the center has definitely been far more successful and, more importantly, enduring. Schröder introduced Agenda 2010 and was ousted two years later (barely admittedly), with the SPD hovering around 25% of the vote now thanks to the infighting (imo). Blair was elected on the New Labour manifesto and re-elected twice. I'd say that's a pretty good track record for New Labour regardless of what its members now think of it. It has left a lasting mark on the party that will be quite difficult to shake off.

And if it hadn't been for the weird leadership electoral system, a Blairite would be at the head of the party today.

[Beezer]

Could be this one:

http://boerse.prognosys.de/markt/btw-de-2013

[Beezer]

My Wahlomat score...maybe I oughta color my country outline blue.

[Beezer]

Why are the Greens starting to crash and burn?

Turns out running on a platform of raising taxes isn't such a good idea after all...

[Beezer]

AfD at 5% according to one of the major pollsters (INSA).

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

[Beezer]

I really have to disagree with your "Merkel's euro policy is vastly popular" comment. Yes, most people are kind of ok with it (at least compared to what Red-Green might have done) but that doesn't mean they think it's the right course of action. Of course it's always foolish to base projections on personal conversations but I've spoken to plenty of people who have traditionally voted CDU or FDP and they will support the AfD this time around. They could still change their mind at the last moment but I really do believe the party in general has enough momentum to make it into the Bundestag.

[Beezer]

(at least compared to what Red-Green might have done)

That's exactly the point. It's the biggest joke of this election that SPD and Greens are unpopular because of something they might have done hypothetically. In the end, voters will think of this and vote for Merkel as the "lesser evil".

But isn't every election about hypotheticals? All you can is judge a government and compare it to the proposals of the opposition, which has quite frequently lambasted Merkel for not being European enough.

[Beezer]

Damn this is close.

[Beezer]

SPD now below 26%.

[Beezer]

So what's the future of FDP/AfD assuming they win no seats?

If I had my way I'd merge the parties into a single, slightly euro (not Europe)-sceptic party. Will be interesting to see what happens to the FDP. A grand coalition would be a best case scenario in which they could stand a decent chance of getting back over 5%.

[Beezer]

Absolute majority for Mutti according to ARD.

[Beezer]

Projections with actual results.

[Beezer]

1 seat ought to be enough. In Germany your allegiance lies with the party, not the district.

[Beezer]

So if a party makes it into parliament it is "not democratic"? Green logic I suppose.

[Beezer]

No CDU politician will want to weaken Merkel though at the zenith of her power.

[Beezer]

Red-Red-Green majority according to ARD.

[Beezer]

I'd say a couple of days from now the CDU/CSU will realize that this was anything but a win. Before the election we had a bürgerliche majority in the Bundestag. That is now gone, having been replaced by a leftist majority. What's more it'll be interesting to see who the CDU can govern with in the future (2017 and beyond). If the AfD replaces the FDP as a conservative-free market 7-10% fringe party, things won't get any easier for future CDU leaders.

[Beezer]

The FDP's niche is that they're supposed to be a free market party that ensures taxes are kept at a low level. Except that they didn't do that in the last coalition which pretty much removed their reason d'etre.

[Beezer]

Not represented in parliament third strongest party. Hooray!

[Beezer]

So it seems we will go into a CDU/CSU-SPD Grand coalition.  This could be very bad for SPD next election.  One way out is half way through the term, find an excuse to break the alliance and go for a SPD-Green-Linke government since enough time has passed since the SPD promise of not going into such a coalition.  

And then drop below 20% in 2017?

I can't see them changing course up until the next election. Maybe by that point we'll have had a couple of RRG coalitions at the state level and the prospect won't be too terrifying to the party leadership.

[Beezer]

In the end, the CDU/CSU are not really winners.  If they just worked to loan some votes for FDP they could be going to a government with a weaker FDP where they pretty much call the shots.  Now they have to deal with a SPD who got burned the last time they were in a coalition and will be demanding their pound of flesh for a coalition.

Yeah, everybody lost tonight, even those who gained votes (CDU/CSU, SPD). Truly a Pyrrhic victory for Mrs. Merkel.

[Beezer]

There won't be a Red-Red-Green government because the SPD are stupid.

If there was a RRG coalition, the SPD would likely drop below 20% at the next federal election.

As others have written, the electoral outcome showed that the people want Merkel to stay on as chancellor. Yes, strictly speaking you have a leftist majority in parliament but this definitely wasn't the outcome that a majority of Germans wanted. Schwarz-Gelb won 20.2 million votes compared to 18.7 for RRG, a gap that is actually about 365,000 votes bigger than the one we had four years ago. IMO the SPD should enter the next election open to the idea of a RRG coalition, then we'd definitely get a good sense if a "true majority" exists for that kind of governing coalition.

[Beezer]

There won't be a Red-Red-Green government because the SPD are stupid.

If there was a RRG coalition, the SPD would likely drop below 20% at the next federal election.

You said this even before the election though. Why would a government with Die Linke make them go below 20%? Let's assume hypothetically that SPD, Die Linke, and the Greens had won 51%.

Because they went into the election promising they weren't going to enter a coalition with them. + it would probably end in tears, since large chunks of the Left really are in no position to govern at the federal level.