Disapproval =/= won't vote for him. Approval or lack thereof is a singular opinion, whereas an election is a binary choice. You can disapprove of both candidates but still vote for one...not sure why some people failed to learn this lesson after 2016.
I'll bite though...let's compare these state disapproval numbers against the nation, with Trump's national disapproval at 56% right now...
The only change in the map is actually NV flipping R, with PA, MI, and WI remaining the closest states. UT is strange, but it's also a very elastic state. (No, that was not a misprint.)
One state to keep an eye on may be Delaware. It's trended almost ten points to the right since 2008, and it's only at 59% disapproval. Interesting that their disapproval number is lower than that of NH, CO, and VA.
Have we ever had a situation where most of the nation disapproved of an incumbent President but voted him again anyway? Trump had crappy favorables, but that's not the same as approvals
