Early 2016 Senate Ratings

[NewYorkExpress]

Alabama is Safe R

Alaska is Safe R. Absent Begich losing in 2014 and running again in 2016, Murkowski's biggest threat is in the primary, and a Joe Miller type would win a squeaker over most non Begich/Knowles Democrats.

Arizona- Tossup/Tilt R, I suspect McCain does retire and we have either Brewer or Salmon as the GOP nominee against Kelly. Ultimately this race should go to the wire on election night 2016, and I think a lot will depend on whether Hillary is the D's presidential nominee

Arkansas- Likely R, I think former Gov. Beebe is the Democratic nominee here, however Boozman should be favored.

California- Safe D, I believe Sen. Boxer will Retire, however no matter who the Democrats nominate they will be a near-lock (for the record I think it will be Kamala Harris)

Colorado- Tossup Tilt/D. Another State that depends on whether Hillary is atop the Democrats ticket, Micheal Bennett will run and face solid opposition (John Elway?) in this purple state.

Connecticut- Likely D, Bluementhal could face an opponent ranging from Rob Simmons to Chris Shays, to Linda McMahon, but he'll be favored over almost all opponents.

Florida- Tossup I think Marco Rubio will make it relatively deep into the Presidential race (but
won't be the nominee), so he won't run for re-election. My Guess for the Republican nominee is Rep. Trey Radel who I think will face Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn or Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer in this classic swing state

Georgia- Lean R, Like Saxby Chambliss before him, I think Johnny Isakon retires as well. Ultimately this too is a state where Hillary's presence could influence the outcome. I think Rep. Gingrey/Broun tries again (and wins nomination this time) and faces Kasim Reed in the general.

Hawaii- Safe D   While I like Schatz, I think Hanabusa wins the primary in 2014, ultimately, it's moot though, no Republican is winning here.

Idaho- Safe R

Illinois- Likely D, I think Sen. Kirk citing health issues will retire. Republicans will nominate Bob Dold and the Democrats will nominate Sheila Simon.

Indiana- Safe R, Only candidate who could beat Coats is already a Senator.

Iowa- Likely R, Grassley's not a lock, but he's not going to lose either

Kansas- Safe R,

Kentucky- Tossup Tilt/R, Rand Paul likely will be running for President, so as much as he wants to run for Re-Election he can't. I think the GOP nominee will be Andy Barr and the Democrats will nominate Adam Edelen.

Louisiana- Safe R, David Vitter certainly will be governor, but that doesn't affect the Senate race much (other than maybe getting the frontrunner in the GOP primary some senority) if at all.

Maryland-Safe D Barbara Mikulski will retire, but that won't change much in this sapphire-blue state.

Missouri- Lean D Roy Blunt is very unpopular and Gov. Jay Nixon is. If Nixon doesn't run there could be a dramatic turnaround however.

Nevada- Lean R, Even if Harry Reid does run for re-election Gov. Brian Sandoval is the favorite here.

New Hampshire- Tossup Tilt/R, I don't see Kelly Ayotte on the GOP ticket and she should have a very miniscule advantage against either Carol Shea-Porter or Jeanne Shaheen (who I think are most likely to take her on)

New York- Likely D, Schumer's biggest weakness is a primary, and should a Bill De Blasio take the nomination away, someone along the lines of George Pataki could win in the General. The situation is very unlikely however.

North Carolina- Lean D. This state loves tossing out Senators, and Burr could be the next victim.

North Dakota- Safe R, Can the state democrats clone Heidi Heitkamp?

Ohio- Lean D, I think Kasich defeats Portman in a primary, and Democrats will nominate Richard Cordaray. Kasich is a slightly more toxic candidate than Portman, and Clinton at the top of the ticket could help here.

Oklahoma- Safe R, Coburn's retirement don't change a thing

Oregon- Safe D

Pennsylvania- Lean R, Pat Toomey is no Rick Santorum or Tom Corbett which why he will hold on.

South Carolina, Safe R, Scott will win easily both in 2014 and in 2016

South Dakota- Safe R

Utah- Safe R

Vermont Safe D, I do think Pat Leahy retires, however that won't change the result.

Washington, Safe D

Wisconsin, Tossup Tilt/D Ron Johnson is in big trouble, but the Democrats don't have much of a bench here.

[NewYorkExpress]

Jeanne Shaheen (who I think are most likely to take her on)

You think Shaheen will be voted out in 2014?

No, that was supposed to read Gov. Hassan, who I think will win re-election and run... whoops.