Italy 2013: The official thread

[ERvND]

So is this statement seen as a big scandal in Italy? I presumed that open reverence to Mussolini is not really uncommon within certain parts of society.

Moreover, Berlusconi has to pander to his neo-fascist supporters. They are part of his PdL, after all.

[ERvND]

I hear that the industry is supporting Monti, big time. I guess they were rather pro-Berlusconi in 2006.

Will this make a difference?

[ERvND]

In wonder where the race is standing right now.

With the media constantly touting a Berlusconi comeback, you could get the impression the centre-right coalition is at a 50-50 chance to win. Traders on Intrade, in contrast, give Bersani a 90% chance of victory. Bookmakers have Bersani at around 1,2 (1/5), equaling a winning probability of ca. 83%. On Betfair, Berlusconi is at 21 (20), i.e. a chance of under 5%.

The last polls also indicated a narrowing, but stable lead for the centre-left coalition. Berlusconi supporters, of course, could hope that the polls were systematically wrong. Fot example, the Monti vote could collapse in their direction on election day.   

[ERvND]

After this crushing defeat, your normal political instincts tell you: This man is finished.

It's Berlusconi, however, so expect him to make a big comeback within the next weeks or months.