It seems like every since his announcement, there has been a bump in people who think Bush will win the nomination. Not just in the media, but in blogs as well. Why is this? Is there anything he has done besides just announcing that he is now the utmost front runner, more so than he was before?
The fact of the matter is, the race won't really begin until probably November. Other than politicos, no one will pay attention until the late fall / early winter.
Since 1960, the only two elections where the GOP establishment candidate did not get the nomination was 1964 with Barry Goldwater and 1980 with Ronald Reagan.
Jeb Bush is the early favorite amongst the GOP establishment and the moderate wing of the party. In all likelihood, given his last name, his record, his ability to fundraise, how he presents himself, and his message, he will remain the establishment favorite.
Right now, it is assumed Bush's main challengers will be Marco Rubio and Scott Walker. But, let's take a look back:
- In 2012, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum ended up being Mitt Romney's strongest challengers. While most agreed Gingrich was formidable, few believed Santorum would mount a strong challenge to Romney.
- In 2008, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee became John McCain's challengers to the right. But, throughout 2007, the story was McCain Vs. Rudy Giuliani, and then McCain Vs. Giuliani Vs. Fred Thompson. Thompson's campaign never went anywhere, and Giuliani took a gamble and lost.
- In 2000, Elizabeth Dole looked like George W. Bush's biggest obstacle to the 2000 GOP nomination. But, Dole ended her presidential bid and John McCain, running to Bush's left, became his main challenge
The point is, we don't know who Bush's main challenger will be, but based on recent history, it is likely Bush will be the nominee.
