At what point will GOP donors be stunned that no one wants another Bush

[dudeabides]

I can just see October 2016, Jeb runs a fairly moderate campaign but never pulls closer than 3 points within Clinton. I think their donors are in complete denial about how bad the Bush brand is. Hillary hasn't even attacked yet, wait until she runs ads showing images of Iraq, Katrina and the recession. She can point out that Jeb has hired large parts of W's team.

Right now, more Americans have a favorable view of President Bush 43 than approve of President Obama's job performance. If this were 2012, the strategy you described would probably work. It's going to be 7 years since George W. Bush left office, and people will look at Jeb Bush's record. Hillary Clinton should try to find something in Jeb Bush's record as Governor to attack, not his brother.

The challenge for Hillary Clinton is that Governor Bush can tell voters she is running for President Obama's third term. That is far more damaging than telling people that Jeb Bush isn't fit to be President because his brother was a bad President.

Jeb Bush will win this election, but it won't be easy and it will be close. Hillary Clinton has the demographic advantage, but her gaffes, her personality, and the fact that she doesn't come across as presidential will hurt her.

Ironically, Bush will beat her much the way Obama did in 2008.

[dudeabides]

I can just see October 2016, Jeb runs a fairly moderate campaign but never pulls closer than 3 points within Clinton. I think their donors are in complete denial about how bad the Bush brand is. Hillary hasn't even attacked yet, wait until she runs ads showing images of Iraq, Katrina and the recession. She can point out that Jeb has hired large parts of W's team.

Right now, more Americans have a favorable view of President Bush 43 than approve of President Obama's job performance. If this were 2012, the strategy you described would probably work. It's going to be 7 years since George W. Bush left office, and people will look at Jeb Bush's record. Hillary Clinton should try to find something in Jeb Bush's record as Governor to attack, not his brother.

The challenge for Hillary Clinton is that Governor Bush can tell voters she is running for President Obama's third term. That is far more damaging than telling people that Jeb Bush isn't fit to be President because his brother was a bad President.

The problem is that while W Bush's favorable ratings increase, poll after poll shows that voters still do approve his presidency or Republican policies. Both are more unpopular than Obama's approval ratings at his lowest, and many of Obama's core policies (minimum wage increase, diplomacy instead of conflict, increased wages, LGBT rights) remain especially popular. Even a supposed Republican strength, the repeal of Obamacare, doesn't poll well when voters find out that Republicans have no solution for the millions of people who would kicked off their insurance if Obamacare were repealed.

Even if Bush runs a "moderate campaign," how is supposed to defend himself against his connections to his brother's policies and unpopular Republican social policies? Hillary's ad team is going to have a field day as Republican strategists continue to run dry ads on Benghazi and the latest supposed Clinton scandal? They're losing on the issues and they know it. No matter how "competent and moderate" Bush is, he's not going to escape the out of touch GOP that tried to shut down the government over Obamacare.

Conservative activists were angered when Governor Bush made no mention of repealing Obamacare at CPAC this year. He is on the record as wanting to repeal Obamacare, but he knows that it can't be a main campaign theme.

Jeb Bush is going to talk about the economy and foreign policy, he's not going to talk about social issues. His views are known, he isn't dodging questions, but it is not the focus of his campaign. 4% growth is. I happen to believe it's a winning message, it's part of the reason I'm supporting him.

The Democrats will probably try to tie Governor Bush to his brother's policies, but it's going to be a challenge for them because he can then turn around and tie Hillary Clinton to Obama's economic policies. People do support rights for same-sex couples and a minimum wage increase, they also are unhappy with the economy right now.

[dudeabides]

I can just see October 2016, Jeb runs a fairly moderate campaign but never pulls closer than 3 points within Clinton. I think their donors are in complete denial about how bad the Bush brand is. Hillary hasn't even attacked yet, wait until she runs ads showing images of Iraq, Katrina and the recession. She can point out that Jeb has hired large parts of W's team.

Right now, more Americans have a favorable view of President Bush 43 than approve of President Obama's job performance. If this were 2012, the strategy you described would probably work. It's going to be 7 years since George W. Bush left office, and people will look at Jeb Bush's record. Hillary Clinton should try to find something in Jeb Bush's record as Governor to attack, not his brother.

The challenge for Hillary Clinton is that Governor Bush can tell voters she is running for President Obama's third term. That is far more damaging than telling people that Jeb Bush isn't fit to be President because his brother was a bad President.

Should President Obama become a failure as President in the next fifteen months, then no Democratic nominee for President has a chance in 2016. On the other side, Hillary Clinton can win much as George H W Bush won in 1988 -- basically, "Keep up the good work". Few Presidents have won election that way, but that is all that is available to any Democratic nominee in 2016.

It may be ironic, but Barack Obama has much the same political skillsert as Ronalr Reagtan.

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PPP has a report on Virginia coming out this week.  No Republican has won the Presidency without Virginia since 1924, and no Republican is going to win without Virginia in 2016.

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Vague. Obama won a near-landslide in 2008. 2008 was not really close.

I find it very, very hard to believe that people would connect Hillary to Obama and not Jeb to Dubya. Clinton and Obama haven't been the best of friends necessarily, while the Bushes are literally brothers. This guy literally has the same parents as one of the most hated politicians in modern history! Maybe a lot of people dislike Obama, but I don't think connecting Hillary to him is a viable defense to the Bush connection at all.

It's a fact that George W. Bush isn't looked at well by many, and it's a fact that we don't want a dynasty. I suppose a Clinton Dynasty wouldn't be welcome either, but I think most people would look at a Bush Trilogy even worse.

There are two groups the Republican nominee needs to do fairly well in to guarantee victory: disgruntled conservatives and independent moderates. Disgruntled conservatives won't support a moderate, just how not all of the Sanders/Warren crowd will support Hillary. Independent moderates won't support Bush 3.0.

Someone like Marco Rubio, John Kasich, a better-focused Rand Paul, or a better-articulated Scott Walker could get both of those groups far better than Hillary can. The Republican donor-class and establishment is, as always, completely clueless.

The people who don't want a Clinton dynasty are Republicans, the folks who don't want another Bush are Democrats. When the voters look at the candidates and watch those debates, they will recognize that Hillary Clinton is running on the same recycled ideas that Barack Obama ran on, and John Kerry for that matter. Jeb Bush won't be running on George W. Bush's agenda in all likelihood.

Governor Bush will do well with three groups Mitt Romney lost in 2012: catholic voters, Hispanics, and moderates (not to be confused with independents). I also believe Jeb Bush will do well with white working class voters who voted for George W. Bush and then Barack Obama.

There is no doubt that Hillary Clinton benefits from being female and having a larger hispanic population than before. Governor Bush will hurt her with hispanics.

Jeb Bush can either attack Hillary Clinton as having no accomplishments, or he can attack her as being too close to Barack Obama. Either way, I think the RNC will tie her to Obama. Bush, however, has taken the approach that she has no accomplishments. I think there should be a combination of both - the argument should be that Hillary Clinton has no experience governing, and that she was not a good Secretary of State.

[dudeabides]

Again, pbrower2a:

1.) The Republican candidate CAN win without Virginia.
2.) Early polls don't mean anything.

Why are you guys acting as if Bush has no chance in hell of winning?

61% of Americans disapproved of President Bush's job performance when he left office in 2009.

56% of Americans disapproved of George Bush in January 1993, and yet his son won the presidency eight years after his election loss. So I don't buy that. If this were 2012, I'd be concerned.

Jeb Bush learned his lesson in what not to do in 1994. He won impressive victories in 1998 and 2002 in Florida - while 2002 was a good Republican year, 1998 was not. He won in a purple state twice by comfortable margins, and he won over females, hispanics, and blacks in addition to those who tend to vote Republican.

On the campaign trail, Jeb Bush has been disciplined, on message, and comes across as authentic.

By contrast, Hillary Clinton is not authentic and comes across as controlled. Her lack of discipline and focus cost her the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination.

[dudeabides]

I agree with dudeabides (to a large extent).
Mehmentum, I really think the GOP has to make a REAL play for PA. There is literally no other option left for them anymore.

Thank you!

Here is the '16 map:

Bush 273
Clinton 265

[dudeabides]

Again, pbrower2a:

1.) The Republican candidate CAN win without Virginia.
2.) Early polls don't mean anything.

Why are you guys acting as if Bush has no chance in hell of winning?

61% of Americans disapproved of President Bush's job performance when he left office in 2009.

56% of Americans disapproved of George Bush in January 1993, and yet his son won the presidency eight years after his election loss. So I don't buy that. If this were 2012, I'd be concerned.

Jeb Bush learned his lesson in what not to do in 1994. He won impressive victories in 1998 and 2002 in Florida - while 2002 was a good Republican year, 1998 was not. He won in a purple state twice by comfortable margins, and he won over females, hispanics, and blacks in addition to those who tend to vote Republican.

On the campaign trail, Jeb Bush has been disciplined, on message, and comes across as authentic.

By contrast, Hillary Clinton is not authentic and comes across as controlled. Her lack of discipline and focus cost her the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination.

I certainly view Hillary as overrated, both as a candidate and as a public servant.  But there is a saying:  Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.  The Bush family has fooled America twice.    

George Bush was not a great President, but he did a good job. He drove Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait, he signed NAFTA into law, and he signed the Americans with Disabilities Act. His biggest failure was the tax increase of 1990.

George W. Bush was handed a very difficult situation. The worst attack on our soil occurred just nine months into his term. He spent his time as President implementing policies to fight our enemies and topple a brutal, murderous regime in Iraq. He had a rather mixed record on domestic affairs, I get that. He was successful in reducing taxes which led to increased revenue, he ended partial-birth abortion, and he supported free trade. But, he also bought into this idea that people need tax credits in order to buy homes or hybrids. He also doubled the size of the Department of Education, continued farm subsidies, and doubled food stamp use in eight years. The financial collapse occurred despite his new regulations on Wall Street. He was great on foreign policy, mixed on the economy, and good on social issues until he proposed the stupid and unconstitutional constitutional amendment on same-sex marriage.

But we have to judge Jeb Bush on his record, not that of his father or his brother.

Bush winning New Mexico? Is Susana Martinez his running mate?

Possibly. He will do better than Romney in purple states.

[dudeabides]

On election day.

Which candidate do you think would do better in the EC than Bush? Just curious.

Walker, Rubio, Paul, most of them really. No one besides the party elites and the small plurality that want Bush right now wants to continue the status quo. Bank on 2016 being a low turnout election if its the case.

First of all, no one really likes Rand Paul except libertarians, Iran, Hezbollah, and felons.

Secondly, Walker is Romney 2.0 - he's flip-flopping to pander and has no appeal to hispanics, centrists, or women. I love what he's done in Wisconsin and he would probably be a good President, but he'd have difficulty against Clinton.

Rubio is electable, though he has a few minor skeletons.

Jeb Bush is the GOP's best hope of winning hispanics, centrists, catholic voters, and white working class voters and thus, the election.

Jeb Bush is a pretty dull candidate, even without W's unpopularity.

Hillary will probably win. Unless another recession pops up.

The economy was robust in 2000 by most measurements, and yet the party in power lost.

Furthermore.....

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[dudeabides]

Again, pbrower2a:

1.) The Republican candidate CAN win without Virginia.
2.) Early polls don't mean anything.

Why are you guys acting as if Bush has no chance in hell of winning?

61% of Americans disapproved of President Bush's job performance when he left office in 2009.

56% of Americans disapproved of George Bush in January 1993, and yet his son won the presidency eight years after his election loss. So I don't buy that. If this were 2012, I'd be concerned.

Jeb Bush learned his lesson in what not to do in 1994. He won impressive victories in 1998 and 2002 in Florida - while 2002 was a good Republican year, 1998 was not. He won in a purple state twice by comfortable margins, and he won over females, hispanics, and blacks in addition to those who tend to vote Republican.

On the campaign trail, Jeb Bush has been disciplined, on message, and comes across as authentic.

Well George H.W Bush didn't leave office with 22% approval rate-I'm sure many would say that George Snr is a better President than his son. That's not even the issue-ironically without daddy or little brother bush Jeb is irrelevant. A competent governor from 2007-why not go to Pataki who go some showtime during 9/11.

If you think that winning a gubernatorial election what 13 years ago means your going to win certain demographics is well a bit optimistic. It's like me saying Governor Schwarzenegger won a plurality of women in 2003 so he'll do that in 2016.

The GOP brand is toxic, and if the Obama Coalition stays up it will be fine.

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No, she lost because she faced arguably the best political campaigner and campaign since JFK. I'd even be pedantic and say she lost because her team didn't understand the caucus system, and failed to use Bill Clinton. I'd of loved to see your star Jeb try and take on Obama in the 2008 GE

56% of Americans disapproved of George Bush's job performance in January 1993, 61% said the same about his son in 2009. Yes, most would say the father was the better President, we agree on that. However, W's numbers have gotten better since he left office. The point is, the previous President's approval ratings don't matter, 41 had 56% of Americans disapproving of his job when he left and his son became the 43rd President.

Jeb Bush has demonstrated an ability to win in a state that is diverse much like the nation. He not only won twice, but left office with a 60% approval rating. Yes, it was 13 years ago, but it still goes to show he can win. In fact, Republicans have maintained the governorship in Florida even as President Obama carried the state twice.

You are correct that Barack Obama is a great campaigner, there is no doubt. But, Hillary Clinton was not good on the campaign trail in 2008 - she was undisciplined and lost focus:

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The GOP brand has some issues right now, but if there is one candidate who can change that, it's Jeb Bush.

George Pataki did not enjoy the same kind of success as Governor as Jeb Bush. Furthermore, Rudy Giuliani was the leader, not George Pataki. If you don't believe me, believe Governor Andrew Cuomo:

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