Italy 2013: The official thread

[Franknburger]

Is anybody out there who could lift my understanding of Italian politics above the stereotypical "a few larger parties, usually corruption prone and with mafia links, plus dozens of small parties, mostly with a half-life period of less than ten years" image?

For a start, it would be nice to get a delineation of major political groups, their key issues and geograhic / demographic base. [You can skip the Neofascist / Berlusconi / Lega Nord part, I am comparatevely well aware of that, even though learning more about their geographic base might still be interesting].

[Franknburger]

I'd recommend going back to the first page; Antonio furnished us with a fair bit of info then.

I apologise for my lazyness in reading the thread from the beginning, and thumbs-up to Antonio for his excellent work!

My takeaways from the initial pages (sorry for mumbling to myself):
1. Italian politics still continues to be driven by personalities, rather than issues (in which it is more comparable to France than, say, countries like the UK, Germany or Spain).
2. Trying to get some structure into the Italian party landscape, it may be grouped like this (I take German parties as reference framework, since this is what I am best acquainted with):
 PD- Social democrats (at their worst German meaning, i.e. somewhere left of center, but without clear direction, and lacking charismatic leadership)
 PdL, VTR, LN, UDC - conservative (christian democratic) in various shades, in most cases more divided by personal rivalry than on issues
 SEL - some kind of amalgam of Greens and The Left (in a way I don't understand, but - on the other hand - is there anybody outside Germany understanding why Greens and Die Linke in Germany will never come together..)
 Grillo/MSS - Italian version of the Pirates (young, urban, anti-establishment, 'let us unite on direct democracy/Internet freedom, everything else we discuss later')
 Orange Movement, IDV - specific Italian, located somewhere close to the left wing of the German FDP and the right wing of the German Greens.

Still, I would love to learn more on the geographical base of all these parties. E.g., on a holiday trip a few years ago I discovered that Apulia is quite different from the stereotypical Mezzogiorno, and I am curious how that plays out politically.

[Franknburger]

Yeah, Iannis is right in terms of political groupings. To simplify, the Italian landscape is split into 4 main poles:
- The "institutional" center-left, led by PD and supported by SEL and a few minor parties. They have been holding easy leads in polls for years now.
- The old Berlusconian right - basically PdL, accompanied by Storace's La Destra and by La Russa's new party "Fratelli d'Italia". It is yet unclear whether the Lega will join them, but Maroni seems to be leaning toward running alone.
- The centrist constellation, which is an utter mess. Here we have UDC, FLI, API (the now defunct "third pole"), plus Montezemolo's new fad, a few other parties with stupid name. All these guys have gotten behind Monti, which will run his own list for the House (on the Senate, there will be a common "Monti list" gathering all these guys).
- M5S, which is basically telling every other party to f**k off.

Ingroia and the "Oranges" stand somewhere between PD and M5S, but probably won't manage to ally with any of them. Anyways, they are mostly irrelevant electorally speaking.

So, to sum it up: There are four major blocks, namely (1) centre-left (PD,Bersani), centre-right (Monti), populist-right (Berlusconi) and populist-left (Grillo), plus a bunch of smaller parties, whereby the allocation of individual smaller parties to any of these blocks is still in flux. Plus, we have ethnic minority parties in South Tyrolia and Val d'Aosta (what about Sardinia, b.t.w.?), which I could assume to be strongly pro-European but otherwise rather conservative, so they most likely end up in Monti's coalition (which may matter on Senate level).

Current polls have the PD bloc at somewhere around 30-35%, and the other three blocks around 15-20% each, of course with a lot of uncertainty as alliance-building is not yet complete. Nevertheless, as it looks now, under the specific Italian voting system the current PD block might have enough of a lead to gain absolute house majority, while things in the Senate could get more complicated.

If I have been correct so far, this leaves me with the following questions:
1. How likely / unlikely is it that the currently leading PD bloc will still be surpassed by any of the other blocks (which one)?
2. Is there anybody out there who would dare to come out with some sort of Senate prediction?
3. Assuming that Bersani wins the House and is not facing a completely obstructionist Senate, how long will his coalition last (it is Italy, after all)?

Happy New Year to everybody!

[Franknburger]

Sorry for again changing the topic a bit: I recall Dario Fo's observation from the late 1970's that Guelph cities tend to vote red, while Ghibelline cities tend to vote black (IIRC, he used the examples of Florence, Pisa and Lucca to demonstrate his point). Does this pattern still hold true somehow, or has it been wiped out by the emergence of Lega Nord and the various reconfigurations of the Italian political landscape ?

[Franknburger]

Out of interest, I did a little background check on the Germany-based PD candidates:

Lina Garavani: Political scientist, born and educated in Italy, came to Germany as a researcher, worked in several training / integration projects for young immigrants, organised anti-Mafia campaigns among Italian restaurant owners in Germany. MP since 2008, leads the PD faction in the parliamentary anti-Mafia committee. Looks like a pretty good choice.
 
Michela Baranelli: Long-term member of SPD youth organisation (JuSos), deputy leader of their Rüsselsheim chapter, represents (works at?) the Centro Italiano in Groß Gerau, which takes part in a network that supports professional integration of immigrants.

Pino Maggio: No information found.

[Franknburger]

Strange, in the list of the North American PD candidates, I spotted a Montreal borough councillor.
So, I suppose binationals can run?

Obviously, as their European top candidate also has dual (German/ Italian) citizenship.

[Franknburger]

I wrote a post pro Berlusconi.

It was deleted ipso facto.

Love your freedom of speech.

JulioMadrid: Why don't you look at your country if you want corruption?

Esto es como ver la paja en el ojo ajeno y no ver la viga en el propio. ¿Conoces el refrán?

Pues busca casos de corrupción en Uruguay en los últimos 25 años, ultratón.

Lo de España es infinitamente más terrible que toda la corrupción italiana junta de aquí a esta época.

Traducción:

What's living Spain today is much more terrible than all the corruption of Italy since World War II.

Ni de coña la corrupción española es peor que la italiana. Prefiero no mencionar a la mafia, la camoprra, la 'ndragheta o la logia P2... Por supuesto la corrupción aquí también apesta y es terrible pero eso no descalifica a cualquier ciudadano de este país para comentar la política italiana. Tampoco me gustaron las declaraciones de cierto presidente uruguayo sobre la naturaleza corrupta de Argentina, ya que lo menciones. Y sí, en Argentina hay corrupción. Procura dar menos lecciones de moralidad basadas en una supuesta superioridad nacional, colega.

While I understand some Spanish, maybe it would be a good idea to have the English-pnly speakers take part in the discussion ...

From the Transparency International 2012 Corruption Perception Index

Uruguay:                  Rank 20, score 72
Spain                        Rank 30, Score 65
Italy:                        Rank 72, score 42
Argentina                  Rank 102, score 35

For reference:
USA                         Rank 19, score 73
Ghana                      Rank 65, score 45
India                        Rank 94, score 36

Oh, and by the way - I hate censorship, and just start to wonder whether I mad a mistake in my moderator rating.

[Franknburger]

Comrade Moderator - please: We have had some posts that could have served as entrance point for an interesting debate on the socio-psychology of part of the italian electorate, or just have lead into fruitlless pro / contra Berlusconi ranting.

Why did you remove these posts so quickly, instead of waiting which way the discussion will go?

I have the feeling that most participants here are able to prevent this thread degenerating into an x-th debate on Berlusconi's demeanor.

[Franknburger]

BTW, the Europe constituency had only 9 lists running: PD, SEL, RC, Monti, PdL, M5S, FiD, some commie outfit nobody knows about, and a "local" Italians Abroad party. I would have liked more diversity, like in Italy at large.

You mean, like one man, one party?

But lots of spots on youtube for Maroni. The last one is priceless....apparently people in Lombardy wake up early in the morning because they have to work and produce for the whole country.

The last time I used an Italian product it was from Emilia Romana (Parma). Oh, I forgot about that wonderful Montepulciano d' Abruzzo. I alos remember a product from Torino I once used to drive. But what the hell are they working on in Lombardy, except for banking and fashion shows?

[Franknburger]

What are the general news (aside from corruption scandals) on economic development in the individual regions? And how could this impact on voting for the House and the Senate?

[Franknburger]

What sort of scandals? Nothing MP level presumably.

All sorts... There is the Formigoni thing, which of course annoys PdL (and Lega to a smaller extent), MPS which for some reason is being tied to PD, Finmeccanica which might hurt Monti and also possibly Lega, and many others. I'm only following these things distractly, because I'm a bit fed up with all these corruption scandals. Methinks abstention (and maybe M5S) will be the only one benefitting from all this.

What about this anti-corruption party (forgot about the name) that was always polling around 2-4%? Shouldn't the scandals help them making the threshold? And, if yes, could that have consequences for the Senate'

[Franknburger]

Napolitano met with Obama in the Oval Office today. Now I'm probably misreading but it looks Obama asked him about the election. Isn't that really inappropriate?

Why should it be inappropriate? I thinkl it is a legitimate interest to find out how a major partner country may in future be governed, and what that could mean for bilateral and multilateral relations. I am sure most European governments are asking similar questions to their Italian partners behind closed doors.

It would only be inappropriate if Obama (or any other country leader) had made a statement on how he wished the Italians to vote.

[Franknburger]

So, corruption is becoming a key issue for the election and the vote. Is this typical for Italian elections over the last decade or so ("let's throw some mud at the opponent, but continue with 'business as usual' after the election")? Or does the debate have a new quality, in the sense that some contenders are bringing up approaches and strategies to effectively tackle the problem?

How influential will the corruption issue be on the overall vote, in relation to other issues like, e.g., taxes, unemployment, social security, or refugees / immigration?

[Franknburger]

With help from Berlin (Kevin Prince Boateng)

[Franknburger]

I won't lighten the hell up because these elections actually have an impact on the country I LIVE in,and not only one I am interested in.

Anyhow,in 2006 polls stopped before Berlusconi declared on TV that he would remove the ICI tax.
In 2008,most of the polls showed a lead far above 2 points.

Now,polls had been showing Berlusconi steady at 18-19% before the "2 weeks censorship break",so there was no momentum whatsoever,and in these 2 weeks nothing has happened that could have helped him. At the most,I am prepared to see Grillo perform better than expected,unfortunately.

I fully understand you. And I would actually be glad if some people could stop to clutter up this thread with irrelevant chater and "fun stories".

Over the last days, several questions have been asked on how certain events (corruption scandals, flooding, perceived 'external intervention', etc.) might influence the vote. I remain highly interested in the Italian posters' respective opinion, as well as any other "field reports".

[Franknburger]

Last day of campaigning. It's been fun. Hope there are some entertaining stories today.

I wasn't referring to football alone (i actually joked about that as well). I just think its time all of us reallise that this election is a really important one, and start discussing accordingly.

[Franknburger]

Did polls (the older ones, or the 'leaked' ones) give any indication on the gender gap? I would imagine that, as in most industrialised countries, the female vote is traditionally more left-leaning (and 'greener') than the male vote, and Berlusconi's scandals may have  widened the gap.

What about Grillo supporters? "Pirate" pattern, i.e. predominantly young, urban males (which would make a 'protest vote' swing from Berlusconi to Grillo plausible), or also reasonably strong female support?

Gender mix of "undecideds"? In the 2008 and 2012 US elections, they were primarily lower-class, less educated females (the supermarket cashier / waitress / nurse demographics), and went heavily for Obama. Can a similar pattern be expected for Italy (neither Bersani nor Monti appear to be the type of politician that has particular appeal to such women) ?

[Franknburger]

As far as I'm concerned, I can't emphasize enough how much this campaign has disappointed me. Not so much because of Berlusconi's shenanigans, because Monti proved to be a total idiot,  because Bersani's campaign was as dull as you can possibly imagine, or because the useless lefty outfit is going to spoil tons of votes. Because of all of this, but mainly because, after all the crazy, unthinkable stuff that happened in the past 2 years, scandal and drama of all sorts, this all ends up being the exact same campaign as usual. This is basically 2006 and 2008 all over again, except with a couple more second-class players who'll do nothing but spoil the results. The campaign was the usual sh*tfest full of useless bickering over the scandal-of-the-day or the insane-idea-of-the-day. I know I should never have expected more in the first place, but see, for a few months I actually thought this was really the beginning of the Third Republic. I thought that voters had clearly decided they wanted to put an end to the way politics had been done in the past 20 years. But ultimately all we have seen in this campaign is the usual stuff (apart from Grillo, but that's not much better). Whatever the result is, this is already a massive failure for Italy.

I don't know if this will be any condolence to you, but I am looking forward to a pretty similar experience in the German elections this autumn. Austria doen't look much better, and my guess is that the French might share your feeling as well.

Welcome to the European mainstream, Italy !

[Franknburger]

Checked out some of the polls myself. Italy does not really seem to have invented socio-economic background analysis - its all horse-race top numbers.

Nevertheless, as the Senate minimum voting age is 25, it might be possible to infere on the 18-25 vote by comparing Camera and Senate polling (assuming the pollsters are filtering out non-eligible respondents for their Senate results).

The table below lists the Camera minus Senate differences per coalition for the Feb. 8 Ipsos poll (the only one I have found so far that covers both chambers nationally):

Bersani              -0.7           
Berlusconi          -0.6       
Grillo                 +0.4           
Monti                 +1.3           
Ingroia              +0.1 
others                -0,5       

This indicates that both Bersani and Berlusconi are having problems with the youth vote, which is instead being absorbed by Grillo and, surprisingly, Monti.

[Franknburger]

I would be cautious about infering on the 18-25 vote based on the differences in one single poll. Assume that the poll had an effective sample size of 1000 respondents. Then for the Monti coalition the standard deviation is about 10 respondents. We are really getting into two handfuls of persons...

You are right, of course. Unfortunately, that single poll seems to be the only information that is available at all

The next problem with your analysis is the "disjoint" vote where voters split their ticket, often for tactical reasons. (Immagine some left-wing voter in Lombardy that votes RC for the Chamber because he wants them to get in and believes Berlusconi's coalition won't win on the national level anyway; and SEL for the Senate because RC stands no chance to get over 8% and he doesn't want Lombardy to give its majority bonus to Berlusconi...)

Such ticket splitting is extremely common in Germany, but I wasn't aware of its relevance for Italy.
How would other possible splits look, that could explain some of the differences in the IPSOS polls? Monti for the Chamber, Berlusconi (Lega) for Senate? Maybe, but does not sound convincing to me. Monti for the Chamber, Bersani for Senate (the centrist anti-Berlusconi vote), however, could make more sense, depending on the region.  But why would someone vote Grillo for the Chamber, and not for Senate?

[Franknburger]

O.k., here is my projection. Uninformed as I am, I may as well get bold. First my assumptions:

Turnout will be lower than last, time, but not that low. I expect it at 75.5%. Reduced turnout will primarily affect younger to middle age low-info voters, and as such hurt mostly Berlusconi, but also the other 'traditional' candidates (Monti, Bersani). Cell-phone only has been under-polled (as everywhere), meaning that candidates / lists with appeal to young urban voters wil overperform relatively to the polling.
The low-info female demography (female equivalent to 'blue-collar Joe Siy-pack, let's call them white coat workers, or Gianna Piccolo) will make up much of the 'undecideds'. They primarily vote on personality, and have traditionally been attracted by Berlusconi, but his sex scandals have hurt his standing with them, which is among the reasons for lower turnout. Bersani and Monti have no appeal to them, while Grillo, Ingroya and Vendola may have some.

Now my prediction (average of last polls in brackets, makes is easier for me to calculate swings):

PD (29.8 ):                    29.1
SEL (3.9)                        4.7
other Bersani (0.7)          0.6
Bersani (34.4)             34.4

PDL (20.3)                      20.2
Lega (5.1)                        4.7
Other Berlusconi (4.0)       3.9
Berlusconi (29.4)         29.0

Grillo (15.3)                    16.2

Monti (9.5)                       8.7
UDC (3.1)                        3.0  
FLI   (0.9)                        0.7
Centro (13.5)               12.4            

Ingroya (4.2)                    4.4

Regional (incl SVP)            0.6

Others                              3.0  

[Franknburger]

Epic things are happening right now.

So, Berlusconi was hospitalized a couple days ago for an eye infection. This allowed him to avoid attending several of his trials (thus preventing them from going on, while the statute of limitation is still ticking). A judge today requested - and obtained - that a tax inspection be sent to the hospital to certify that Berlusconi could effectively not attend the trial. Don't ask me how it is possible for tax services to do that... but anyway, they came in, visited Berlusconi, and certified that he was actually capable of attending. PdLers are outraged and calling the judges nazis and stalinists.

Well, I guess tax inspectors are the only ones that have a right to look at the medical records (to check whether they correspond to the billing), which are otherwise strictly confidential. While I would not call the judges stalinists, their approach is definitely on the border of legality (at least according to German standards).   

[Franknburger]

It looks like both new speakers are "outsiders" and representatives of the "civil society". They seem to be admirable people (Boldrini apparently worked in the UN against poverty and Grasso was an anti-mafia magistrate). Great move by the PD.

How old are they? Can this be understood as a sign of generational change ?

[Franknburger]

Did it really have to be pointed out that these people speak with an accent?

I assume they all have skills in Spanish. Anyone know German?

I would not make knowledge of German a prime criteria for selecting a PM - German politicians nowadays tend to speak some English (often with accent, of course). Nevertheless, I would assume Monti also having some knowledge of German from his time in the EU Commission.