2013 Elections in Germany

[Franknburger]

So, Steinbruck is basically a joke candidate?

He made himself one.

[Franknburger]

That's why his recent "scandals" were blown up in a ridicolous way. For example, the fact that he is rich and got fees for his speeches could (and should) have been a sidenote. Instead, the media orchestrated a month-long campaign, even though he'd done nothing illegal.

Yes, this is normally the way with so-called 'gaffe-prone' politicians. It isn't as though they don't do the things they're pulled up for, it's that when this happens there's usually an agenda at work.

Steinbrück should have known about Merkel's women network, which includes Friede Springer (Springer-Verlag - BILD, PRO 7, SAT 1), Sabine Christiansen (former ARD talk show host), Liz Mohn (Bertelsmann Verlag - RTL), Berlin event queen Isa von Hardenberg, etc. He also should have known how Merkel has dealt with rivals inside her party.

The "speech honoraria" issue was silly, and reasonably quickly dismissed. But it should have served as a warning on things to come. And what does Steinbrück? Interview after interview, just before Christmas, when domestic policy news are scarce, and the press is eager to have something to write about. Obviously, he hoped to be able to set the policy agenda. But his interviews came totally unprepared, i.e.  without launching issues in advance via 'friendly' media, and without ensuring adequate orchestration, e.g from civil society groups. That was stone-age PR!

Moreover, he did not realise that there are times when it is better to shut your mouth, and not to answer certain questions (e.g. chancellor's salary). To cite my local paper again "Fast thinker without adequate brain-to-mouth filter. High time for campaign reboot in protected mode".

Bottom line: Naive, unprepared, uncontrolled. No chancellor material.

[Franknburger]

I'm not pretending that he doesn't have a foot-in-mouth problem or even really defending him as such, just agreeing with the obvious truth that this sort of thing is only ever an issue when the media have decided to make it an issue. Of course you can soon get to the point where things that are not 'gaffes' are deemed to be them: Michael Foot's donkey jacket that wasn't, etc.

Yep, of course, the gaffe thing was orchestrated.

The point I was trying to make is that Merkel's excellent media relation through her women's network is widely known. So Steinbrück should have prepared himself, acted carefully, and built counter-alliances before exposing himself. He didn't - and that tells about his political talent (and team-playing abilities).

[Franknburger]

New Infratest dimap polls

Federal (18.01.2013), for ARD:

CDU        42 (+1)
SPD         26 (-2)
Grüne      13 (-1)
Linke         7 (+1)

FDP          4 ()
Piraten      4 (+1)
Others      4 ()

Rheinland-Pfalz, State (17.01.2013), for SWR:

CDU       43 (+3)
SPD        33 (-3)
Grüne     13 (+1)

FDP         2 (-1)
Linke       3  (+1)
Piraten    3 ()
others     3 (-1)

On Janzary 16,2013, Kurt Beck has stepped down as state PM (he is turning 65 this February) and been replaced by Malu Dreyer (SPD).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malu_Dreyer

[Franknburger]

Any predictions for the Niedersachsen state elections? Here's mine:

CDU: 41%
Their potential is even higher, but they'll lose a bunch of tactical voters to the FDP.

SPD: 27%
The SPD share will collapse, perhaps to even lower levels than 27%. Polls generally tend to overestimate SPD support; moreover, the media climate for them is toxic right now. In the end, a great number of SPD voters will stay at home.

Greens: 15%
They will benefit from disgruntled SPD voters, but not enough to make up for the SPD's losses.

FDP: 8%
The "big surprise" of the evening, but not for me. The hardcore FDP supporters alone would have sufficed to put them over the 5% threshold. Now, they'll get a big number of additional votes from tactical CDU-voters.

The Left: 4%
Will profit a bit from SPD supporters who don't like Steinbrück, but not enough to make it to 5%.

Others: 5%
Pirates won't play a role in this one.

Conclusion:
Easy win for black-yellow, already foreshadowing the Bundestag results in September. Things could only get interesting if the Left somehow managed to reach over 5%. But even in this case, CDU-FDP should have a stable majority.

O,k,, here I go:

First, the major blocks:

• CDU/FPD together at 44 % - this is their average showing in the January polls, and 2-3% more than they had in the December polls. Still quite a swing, but less than the swing in current federal elections polls- those were opinions, now comes a real election.
• Sonstige (further ran) 3%. NPD below 1% (the NSU shock has not yet fully ebbed away), but quite sone eurosceptic Freie Wähler vote, plus 1% who even find the Pirates already too established
• SPD/Grüne/Linke/Piraten: 53% (which is the balance).

Now the detailed breakdown:
CDU/FPD This is tricky. I orient on the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll, which saw generic FDP support at only 2%, but also found 50% of CDU leaners favoring CDU support to lift the FDP above 5%.  For such potential "FDP loan voters' there is little incentive to "withold" their loan - an absolute CDU majority is, according to all polls, out of reach. Since the FDP does not yet appear to be 'safe', I tend to assume that roughly one quarter of potential 'FDP loan voters' will actually vote FDP. 42% CDU lean * 50% "support FDP" * 0.25 ~ 5.5%. So, my prediction is: FDP 7.5% (2% generic + 5.5%  'loan'). CDU 36.5 %, [/li][/list]

SPD: 31 % That's the easy one - the SPD is regularly polled too high (frustrated leaners not turning out, plus landline polling, which neglects cell-only voters -> Grüne, Linke, Piraten). So I take the polling consensus of 33%, minus  2% average SPD overestimate as occured in the recent state elections in Schleswig-Holstein and the Saarland.

Grüne: 14,5%.: Similar story - regularly underestimated by landline polling, plus suburbanisation (well-earning university graduates becoming parents, moving out of the posh inner-city quarters into some semi-urban area where no pollster expects anybody to vote green). So I take the polling consensus of 13%, plus 1% underestimate, plus 0.5% of disgruntled SPD leaners (and moderate / environmentalist catholics that would hate a SPD-led government, but now see black-green as a possible option).

Pirates: 2.5% 3% is the polling consensus, including INFO / YouGov (internet polling). Now, if there is anybody who should have a good grab at the Pirate's support, it is an internet pollster, so  I don't see the Pirates crossing 3%. In neighbouring Schleswig-Holstein, the Pirates have so far performed rather poorly in the state legislature, which people (at least in the northern half of Lower Saxony) will have noticed.

Linke: 5 % All landline polls have them at 3%, but INFO/ YouGov internet polling at 6%. In 2008 they performed 2% better than the poll average (landline polling issue), and they may repeat this. They are also quite likely to pick up some disgruntled SPD voters.

Bottomline: A nailbiter. Decimals will decide whether the Linke passes 5%, and whether black-yellow or red-green is in front (which is becoming irrelevant if the Linke make it past the 5% hurdle). Furthermore, as CDU overhanging mandates are likely (resulting in additional compensation mandates that complicate seat allocation), it will take several hours until the winners are known (if there are any).
 

[Franknburger]

Polls close at 18 h MET (in 45 minutes). Exit polls will be available immediately, first projection at around 18:30. Final results should be available by 22:00.However, if it is really tight and also depending on FPTP votes (and consequent allocation of compensation votes), it may take until midnight.

Participation is surprisingly high, which is a good sign for SPD. At 16:30, 51.3% had voted, compared to 49.5% at the same time five years ago.

For those understanding German, the best place to follow results should be
http://www.ndr.de/regional/niedersachsen/landtagswahl_niedersachsen_2013/index.html.

Otherwise, try http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/lower-saxony-election-could-foretell-national-vote-a-878457.html

[Franknburger]

At 16:30, 55.3% had voted, copmapred to 49.5% atz the same time five years ago.

53.3%

You are right. Thanks for the correction-

[Franknburger]

Looks like the CDU loan votes for FDP worked.  In retrospect SPD should have loaned some votes to Linke.

That's what they did in 2008, to ensure CDU does not get an absolute majority.

[Franknburger]

New ZDF poll (19:00)

CDU 36.4
SPD 32.7
Grüne 13.6
FDP 9.7

Red-green 46.3, black-yellow 46.1

Seat projection 75-75 (including FPTP & compensation)!

This will become a long evenng !

[Franknburger]

Latest ZDF Projection (19:23)

CDU 36.5
SPD 32.5
Grüne 13.6
FDP 9.7

black-yellow 45.2 red-green 45.1

black-yellow leads with 73 - 72 seats

First district results expected after 20 h.

[Franknburger]

ARD projections (20:00):

CDU 36.3
SPD 32.6
Grüne 13.6
FDP 9.8

Red-green 46.2 black-yellow 46.1

Either +1 seat red-green, or both blocks equal, depends on FPTP & compensation

[Franknburger]

Some background on Lower-Saxony FPTP:

According to the latest ARD & ZDF polls, the CDU would be entitled to 53 seats. However, the last FPTP projection published a a few days ago projected 54 FPTP seats for the CDU. In this case, the CDU would keep the extra seat. If they gain more than 54 FPTP, other parties would get compensated (i.e. the seat total rises), but even after compensation, CDU might stil get one seat more than they would get on proportional assignment.

According to available data, Hannover FPTP seats should go 4 SPD, 1 CDU, which is in line with pre-election predictions

[Franknburger]

Here are some results for the Göttingen region

(http: / /) wahlen.kds.de/2013ltw/index.html , I cannot include links.

SPD won the constituencies of Göttingen and Göttingen/Münden, Northeim, Einbeck, Osterode and Holzminden (where Minister of the Interior, Schürnemann (CDU), lost).
CDU won Duderstadt.

Which makes a FTPT net gain of 1 for the SPD in this region (Holzminden).

LOL - the Black Sheriff is gone! Seems my sister and my nieces voted right..

Checked Hannover-Land results (counting not yet finished):
3 CDU FPTP (Langenhagen, Garbsen, Springe)
4 too close too call (less than 500 votes difference): Laatzen (SPD lead), Lehrte, Neustadt, Barsinghausen  (all CDU lead).

Pre-election projection was 4 CDU - 3 SPD

[Franknburger]

For those who can read German, here is the Lower Saxon overhang mechanism, as described by wahlrecht.de

That's frigging weird. Echoes of Schleswig-Holstein... not to mention Florida.

Yep - black-yellow seems to be great in doing unconstitutional election system reforms. After their last two reforms of Federal election law have been scrapped by the Constitutional Court, we still don't have a valid legal base for the federal elections this Spetember.

Will there be an uproar if due to overhand seats bonus, CDU/FDP wins less votes than SPD/Greens but comes to power with a one seat majority?  Or does the population accept that as part of the system.

We had a similar situation In Schleswig-Holstein in 2009, which went to constitutional court and resulted in early elections last autumn. However, the Lower Saxony compensation modus is less extreme, so it may actually get through undisputed.

[Franknburger]

Wow: Grüne come in ahead of CDU in Oldenburg Mitte/Süd  (25.8 vs. 23.6), and get 25.1% in Lüneburg! Would not wonder if they came out first in Göttingen.

[Franknburger]

Some more highlights from the ARD exit polls:

McAllister did a good job: 69 %
CDU/FDP should stay in government: 39 %
Time for government change: 57 %
Prefered coalition: red-green 52 %,  black-yellow 36 %

Which party is most competent:

Topic         Relevance      CDU    SPD       FDP
Education        45%           33      45       2
Employment     24%           43     37
Economy          13%           51     32        3
Families            12%           31     45

Essentially, McAllister was killed by

• Discontent with the FDP (which, ironically, the election result does not show)
• Red-Green campaigning for abolishment of college fees (Lower Saxony is one of the two states that still impose that fee) - I know from my sister and my sister-in-law, both with children that will finish school this year, that the issue was important, if not decisive for their vote
• Discontent with federal-level CDU/ CSU family policies (introduction of the so-called 'stove premium'- grants to mothers staying at home to take care of their non-school-age children, instead of investing the money into early childhood day care)

Another issue was nuclear policy, which does not show up in the exit polls, but becomes apparent in the huge Green party gains in the North-East, where the Gorleben proposed nuclear waste dump is located.

[Franknburger]

For completeness sake, here the final official results:

CDU     36.0 (-6.5)
SPD     32.6 (+2.3)
Grüne  13.7 (+5.7)
FDP      9.9  (+1.7)

Linke    3.1 (-4.0)
Piraten    2.1 (+2.1)
Freie Wähler 1.1 (+0.6)
NPD      0,8  (-0.7)

Main voter movements as per ARD exit polls (Note: the figures don't always add up with the final result, especially not for CDU):

• CDU: Gains from non-voters / First voters (49 k) and from Linke (10 k),  losses to FDP (104 k), SPD, (37 k), Grüne (20 k) and others (6 k, Freie Wähler?)
• SPD: Losses to Grüne (49 k) and Piraten (6 k), Gains from non-voters (90 k), CDU (37 k), Linke (15 k), FDP  (20 k) and "others" (7k)
• Grüne: Loss to Piraten (7 k), gains from non-voters (59 k), SPD (49 k),  CDU (20 k), Linke (17 k), and FDP (9 k)
• FDP: Gains from CDU and from non-voters (9 k), losses to SPD, Grüne, "others" (7 k) and Piraten (5 k)
• Linke: Losses to non-voters (40 k),  Grüne, SPD, CDU, Piraten (9 k), "others" (3 k).
• Piraten: Gains from "others" ((13 k), non-voters (11 k), Linke, Grüne, SPD, FPD

Key trends:

• Strong CDU->FDP movement (loan votes)
• Some 3% movement from black-yellow to red-green; of which SPD picks up roughly 2%, and Grüne 1%
• Some 1.5% movement from SPD to Grüne
• SPD benefits most from increased participation (some 3% gain), followed by Grüne (first voters?) and CDU
  
• Linke lose almost 2% to non-voters (which threw them out of the new Landtag), but also significantly to Grüne, SPD, CDU (!) and Pirates (in this order).
  

[Franknburger]

• Red-Green campaigning for abolishment of college fees (Lower Saxony is one of the two states that still impose that fee) - I know from my sister and my sister-in-law, both with children that will finish school this year, that the issue was important, if not decisive for their vote

As a matter of interest, how much are college fees in those German states that charge them?

500 € / semester - not much in international comparison, but still a cost for parents.

[Franknburger]

To all map-makers out there: No point in doing result maps, they are available at http://vis.uell.net/nds/13/atlas.html (with individually scaleable color ranges).

However, I have not yet been able to find a 2008-13 swing map, and I don't think anybody has ever done a trend map on German State elections. Such maps would be great to have ...

[Franknburger]

So in addition to this 500 € / semester fee, how much does the student/parents pay for college in Germany.  I assume it is different for public and private universities.

500 € / semester - not much in international comparison, but still a cost for parents.

The 500 €/ semester is for public colleges. Private colleges may be much, much more.

In addition, there is a semestrial contribution payable, which varies from University to University, but typically ranges around 200-300 €/ semester. This contribution usually covers the funding of things like student's councils, mensas, etc., and in most cases also public transport (i.e, each student is entitled to use inner-city public transport for free - that's why Universities in larger cities tend to have a higher semestrial contribution than those in small towns).

The key issue in a non-city state like Lower Saxony, however, is that parents need to either fund their children's housing at the study location, or transport to that place (and that means in most cases an extra car plus fuel money).

[Franknburger]

Ok.  I guess I just need to calibrate my expectations on college expenses relative to my own personal experience.  Myself and many members of my family who are in USA all went to fairly elite and expense universities.  Back when I went back in the 1990s, it was $30K a year, relatives that went a decade later was $40K a year and now it is $50K a year.  Even public universities are around 10K-15K these days.  Other relatives that are back in Taiwan Province of ROC, the annual cost of college is around $2K which most people there find quite reasonable and is still higher than  500 €/semester especially given the relative low cost of living in Taiwan Province.   This is why I am taken aback that 500 €/semester would become a campaign issue that potentially shifted the result of this election. 

Yep, I know, 500 €/ semester sounds peanuts  for most people outside Central Europe. However, you have to consider the following in this respect:

• Public colleges / universities have traditionally been free of charge (this dates back to the middle-ages), but also for quite some times been chronically under-financed. When black-yellow state governments started to introduce college fees, they promised that the extra revenue would be used to improve college education (more lecturers, etc.), and also hoped that this would increase incentives for colleges to orient more on students' demands. None of this has matierialised, however (essentially, the reform was half-hearted, 500 €/ student is nothing compared to the extra funding that can be gained from federal and EU research budgets). So, the common public perception is that college fees are just one more way for government to extract citizens' money, and the discussion is not solely about the fees themselves, but about government's spending prioriies (education vs. motorways / airports / "white elephants")
• Due to WW I & II, Germany has a unique demographic structure. The post-WW II 'baby boomers (my generation), born between 1959 and 1968, account for almost 20% of the population and some 25% of the electorate. They have induced a secondary 'baby boom' between 1985 and 2000 (with an early-1990s post-unification birth dip in East Germany) - and many of these kids are in college now, or expected to go there soon. As such, college education (and costs thereof) is not just a side issue, but quite central to the electorally dominating age group, plus most of new voters.

[Franknburger]

]Some remarks on the regional profile of the parties:

• CDU: Unsurprisingly, the CDU stronghold has again been the catholic south-west of the state, where they passed 50% of the secondary (PV) vote in all but one district. Their strongest district was Vechta (57.8%), followed by Cloppenburg (57.6%).They also came out quite strong in the catholic Eichsfeld (Duderstadt district, 42.3%), and in the rural belt between the Hamburg, Bremen, Hannover and Brunswick/ Wolfsburg metro areas. They performed rather poorly in the large cities. Osnabrück South (31.2%) was their best urban district, and (unsurprisingly) Hannover-Linden (18.9%) their worst.  
• SPD: Equally unsurprising, the SPD has been most succesful in their traditional strongholds in East Frisia (north-west, Emden strongest district with 46.4%) and in the south-east. Since their candidate, Stefan Weil, used to be the mayor of Hannover, they still performed reasonably well in parts of that city, where they reached around 38%  Otherwise,  they did not reach above 34%, often not even 30%, in the main cities. Weakest, however, were they in the CDU-dominated catholic areas (Cloppenburg 16.8%)
• Grüne: They took the cities by storm, gaining more than 25% in Göttingen, Lüneburg, Oldenburg Mitte-Süd and Hannover-Mitte. They furthermore came out strong in the North-west (Gorleben nuclear waste dump),  the Hamburg and Bremen peripheries, and parts of the Hannover, Brunswick, Oldenburg and Göttingen peripheries. Their good result(13.8%) in the SPD stronghold of Emden comes as a surprise (or not, considering that Emden has become one of the largest windpower manufacturing sites in Germany). Their weakest regions continue to be the catholic CDU strongholds, but even in their worst district (Cloppenburg, 7.1 %), they managed to double their vote compared to 2008.
• [FDP: No clear regional pattern. Essentially, they tend to be stronger where the CDU is also stronger, with the best results in the predominantly protestant strip between Bremen and the Catholic south-west (Diepholz 14.5%, Oldenburg-Land 14.1%), and in rural protestant regions (e.g. Holzminden 14%). They fared worst in traditional blue-collar districts (steel, automotive) in the East (Salzgitter 5.7%)
• Linke: Interesting mix: Strong in green strongholds (Hannover-Linden 6,8%, Elbe/Gorleben 5.9%)), but also doing comparatively well in traditional blue-collar SPD strongholds such as East Frisia, Wilhelmshaven and Salzgitter. In CDU-dominated areas, they did not ger a feet on the ground. Their worst district was Lingen (1.6%)

[Franknburger]

Explanations for the FDP bursting from the grave?

For those too lazy to read through everything that was written here yesterday ..

lmao, they actually polled FDP supporters in the exit poll. These percentages agreed with the following propositions...

91% I could have just as well voted CDU
87% I cared mostly about reelecting McAllister
68% My vote is a classic "borrowed vote"
45% I decided to vote FDP some time ago
33% the FDP is the party I feel closest to
20% I am wholly convinced of the party I voted for

They actually said they've never seen numbers quite as crass.

[Franknburger]

O.k., as nobody else has volunteered, I have prepared an evaluation of our Lower Saxony predictions. On the methodology - whenever a prediction included a range (e.g. 27-30%), I took the arithmetic mean, and whenever figures did not sum up to 100%, I balanced it by adjusting the share of "others".

First, let's compare our common wisdom with actual results (Prediction mean - actual -  error):

CDU      40.2     36.0    +4.2
SPD       29.4     32.6    -3.2
Grüne   14.5      13.7    +0.8
FDP        6.2      9.9      -3.2
Linke      4.4      3.1      +1.3
Piraten   2.7      2.1      +0.6
others    2.6      2.6      at least  this one we got collectively right ...

Now the ranking (total absolute error, ascending)

1. Franknburger (8.0)
2. palandio (12.0)
3. mubar (12.2)
4. Senator Franzl (14.2)
5. Tender Branson (14.6)
6. ERvND (15.2)
7. a Person (15.5)
8. Julio Madrid (16.6)
9. Esecutore de Midas (19.2)

[Franknburger]

Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Franknburger...

Thanks. However, it was mostly luck. As I underestimated the strength of the black-yellow block,, while ing off like everybody else on the FDP share, I happened to almost nail the CDU percentage.  A prediction to be really proud of looks different ....