Swiss Elections & Politics (Next election 2019)

[Franknburger]

     Isn't it usually the case that German-speaking Switzerland is more right-wing than French-speaking Switzerland? I'm hardly an expert on the matter, but that is what my observations have tended to bear out.

Yes, that's usually the case. On the one hand there is a clear urban-rural divide but there are also regional differences. Broadly speaking, the French-speaking cantons are more left-wing on economic issues and more socially liberal. Historically they also tended to be more EU-friendly than both the German-speaking and Italian areas but that's been changing lately because there aren't many Swiss people left who want the country to join the European Union.

Is there really such a language divide if you correct for urbanisation? My understanding was always Zürich and Basel being quite (greenish-)left. The same probably applies to Geneva / Lausanne/ Montreux, but the latter should account for more of the French-speaking population, than Zürich and Basel are representing the German-speakers.

[Franknburger]

     It doesn't surprise me that Germany lacks a strong nationalist party like the Swiss People's Party, really. Germany is still healing from some old wounds that Switzerland didn't have to deal with. Though that still fails to explain the FPO in Austria.

I think you (probably unconsciously) hit the point when you mentioned "old wounds". WW II has left traces in almost every German city, and destroyed lots of cultural monuments. Austria, OTOH, was mostly out of reach to allied bombing, and hardly experienced any ground fighting.

[Franknburger]

    It doesn't surprise me that Germany lacks a strong nationalist party like the Swiss People's Party, really. Germany is still healing from some old wounds that Switzerland didn't have to deal with. Though that still fails to explain the FPO in Austria.

I think there are two more points:

1. The GDR took pride in its anti-fascist roots and character, and accused West Germany to not have sufficiently cleared up the NSDAP legacy. Western politicians, especially Brandt and Wehner, who themselves had emigrated under Nazi rule, were eager to prove otherwise. In fact, a lot of the German political division and discussion during the 1970s, while at first glimpse only dealing with Brandt excusing to Poland, and accepting post 1945 borders, was about Germany's historical legacy and responsibility. I am not sure that Austria ever went as deep in reviewing involvement with fascism - it could conveniently point at being a victim itself (1938 "Anschluss), and deny any responsibility beyond having applauded the wrong guy ("Nobody knew what he was about to...",.

2. The German confessional divide had and still has rural Catholics, otherwise a prime target group for right-wing populism, on the anti- or at least non-fascist side (Zentrum). The NSDAP was very much a protestant party; today's NPD strongholds in East Germany also tend to be culturally protestant.  In Austria, the confessional divide doesn't play much of a role (but I could imagine it being otherwise in Switzerland, and aside/ in addition to language influencing regional voting patterns).

[Franknburger]

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In English this means that Switzerland shall be able to control immigration independently. I realize that this runs counter to the ideological underpinnings of the European Union but why shouldn't a sovereign country be able to do that?

That constitutional is clause is of course self-evident. However, Switzerland has, in all autonomy, signed an accord with the EU that guarantees EU citizens the right to take residence in Switzerland (and vice-versa) - an accord that was confirmed in a 2009 referendum.

As such, I wonder about the following:
1. How does Swiss constitutional law deal with the obvious conflict between (a) international accords (b) the 2009 referendum on unlimited right of EU citizens to take residence in Switzerland and (c) last weekend's referendum? I guess we are first of all looking forward towards a lengthy procedure by the Swiss High Court (Bundesgericht) with pretty uncertain outcome.

2. I furthermore understand that the referendum requires the government to within the coming three years re-negotiate all international agreements that that include foreigners' rights to unlimited residence. That is of course first of all directed against the agreement with the EU. However, it should also concern a number of other agreements, including those related to international organisations with headquarters in Switzerland (WHO, International Red Cross, possibly FIFA, etc.). Sounds like a lot of fun ahead (and might be a golden opportunity to get rid of Sepp Blatter once and for all) ...

3. Unless the Swiss government unilaterally cancels all a/m agreements (which I am pretty sure it will not do, as, e.g., the EU agreement also covers all services including financial services), I am rather certain that a lot of negotiation will still be on-going in three years from now. In that case, the Bundesrat shall have to decree implementation procedures for the prescribed quota system. My understanding, however, is that such a decree needs to respect international agreements (Art. 190 of the Swiss Constitution - in the case of a law, that would be different). This would mean that no immigration quota may be set for EU nationals as long as the current agreement with the EU hasn't been altered. The EU just can sit back and relax (except for new members such as Croatia) ...

Bottom line - aside from job creation in the Ministry of Foreign affairs, the referendum will remain practically meaningless, but has damaged Switzerland's international image. Good work, dear neighbours (and a remarkable lack of legalistic craftsmanship for a country otherwise known for precision) !

[Franknburger]

It seems that the only way this dilemma can be resolved is, indeed, by entening new negotiations with the European Union, which, to put it mildly, will be challenging.

Not only challenging, but in all likelihood (knowing the EU's decision making process) also taking a lot of time..

Renegotiation of the EU agreement is of course legitimate. The question is whether Switzerland has been well advised to put itself under pressure, and which deals it will have to offer for the EU to eventually accept residence quotas. Bank secrecy, interest rate taxation, and concessions on cargo transit are coming to mind here - all issues that bear the potential for a re-negotiated agreement to fail in a subsequent referendum. Asides, while the EU might accept some kind of migration quota, it will definitely not accept the discrimination as per the new Art. 121 a Nr. 3 ("Vorrang für Schweizerinnen und Schweizer") of the constitution.

The right is tinkering with the idea of launching an initiative titled "Schweizer Recht vor internationalem Recht", which would mean that Swiss law would automatically be given precedence over international law. This is clearly a hot button issue which won't go away very soon.

That would amount to a cultural revolution in the country that invented institutionalised internationalism and once hosted the Council of Nations ("Völkerbund"). So far, Switzerland hasn't fared too badly as the world's neutral arbiter and safe haven. But, maybe, turning nationalist is the fastest way to settle the migration issue. Germany would gladly take up Nestle and Novartis (plus their employees), Luxemburg and Liechtenstein should not mind hosting a few more banks, and I guess Geneva would declare independence in order to keep the international organisations there. After all, holidays in Switzerland might become affordable again to a humble German (and accommodation abundant)...

[Franknburger]

ZuWo - would you mind commenting a bit more on the regional distribution of yes/no votes on the immigration initiative? Looking at the map that Tender has posted
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=172799.msg4049928#msg4049928

it for example seems to me that, aside from Ticino, it has rather been suburban than rural Germans voting yes. Some more rural parts of French-speaking Switzerland appear to also have narrowly supported the initiative. What may explain the no vote in Graubünden? Which role plays tourism, etc.

Swiss politics is now obviously facing a PR problem, namely countering the perception of "xenophobic rural Germans questioning Switzerland's integration into the European and Global economies". I would appreciate if you from time to time could update us on how leading politicians, especially those from the conservative spectrum, deal with this PR problem.

The SVP's rise is becoming obvious, but, when looking at the FPÖ in Austria, in line with a general regional trend. Can the same be said for French and Italian speaking Switzerland, i.e., are Swiss variants of FN and Lega Nord on the rise there as well? Is there a long-term risk of "Belgianisation" of Swiss politics?
 

[Franknburger]

^
I would be glad if this thread (and the "International Elections" board in general) could remain a place of serious discussion. There are more than enough troll posts in other parts of the forum.


The result of the recount has been published: The EVP has received 36 fewer votes than the preliminary vote tally showed. Thus, the party has failed to re-enter parliament. The three EVP seats have been given to the SP, SVP and AL, which means that the three left-wing parties SP, GP and AL now hold 62 of 125 seats in the City Parliament.

http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/content/portal/de/index/service/medien/medienmitteilungen/2014/140214a.html

My respect to you devoting your time to making democracy work, ZuWo!

Today, our local newspaper (Lübecker Nachrichten) reported that Wolfgang Kubicki, Deputy head of the German FDP, has announced that he will not (as all the years before) go to Zermatt for winter sports holidays this year in reaction to the Swiss plebiscite. Not a headline news, but a longer article and a comment on page 2. So far on "There is no Swiss PR problem".

The Linke is calling for re-introducing controls on capital transfers to and from Switzerland (including border controls for unusual amounts of cash carried with) if Switzerland should officially put free migration in question.

[Franknburger]

"We  keep all agreements as they are, just alter the migration part" is of course unrealistic, and most leading Swiss politicians probably know that. However, there will anyway not happen much before the EP election and formation of the new Commission, so having a concept by June is early enough. It is probably also a good idea to look at EP election results first and then decide on the negotiation strategy, and what may be offered to the EU in compensation to free migration.