Early 2016 Base Map

[PolitiJunkie]

Generic D vs. Generic R (i.e. not factoring in specific candidate possibilities like Christie swinging New Jersey or Hillary swinging WV/KY/AR or trends that exist but clearly won't be ready by 2016 like Texas going Democratic)

Safe D (185 EV) California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine (statewide), ME-01

Likely D (38 EV) Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, ME-02

Lean D (62 EV) Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

Pure Toss-Up (47 EV) Florida, Ohio

Lean R (15 EV) North Carolina

Likely R (55 EV) Alaska, Arizona, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, NE-02

Safe R (136 EV) Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska (statewide), NE-01, NE-03, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, South Carolina

[PolitiJunkie]

Generic D vs. Generic R (i.e. not factoring in specific candidate possibilities like Christie swinging New Jersey or Hillary swinging WV/KY/AR or trends that exist but clearly won't be ready by 2016 like Texas going Democratic)

Safe D (185 EV) California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine (statewide), ME-01

Likely D (38 EV) Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Michigan, ME-02

Lean D (62 EV) Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

Pure Toss-Up (47 EV) Florida, Ohio

Lean R (15 EV) North Carolina

Likely R (55 EV) Alaska, Arizona, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, NE-02

Safe R (136 EV) Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska (statewide), NE-01, NE-03, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, South Carolina

Your map seems very filled in this early. I'm not sure if we're supposed to be predicting with all things being equal or calling the states this far in advance? I left about 20 states blank because it's so early.

See I actually created this map as a base map all things being equal. The fact is, sure states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are swing states, but all things being equal, the Democrat will win them like they have been doing since 1984. Leaving states like Michigan and Minnesota open assumes a very high caliber Republican candidate, just like I would be doing if I left Arizona or Indiana open. That's where Lean/Likely/Safe comes in handy; I can indicate that Indiana will likely go to the Republican all things being equal without being a 100% solid bet, just as I can recognize that all things being equal, the Democrat will more likely than not win New Hampshire. Not trying to call any states in advance; just setting up a generic map in which Florida and Ohio are the only truly pure toss-up states. If all this thread was asking us to do was indicate that the Democrat will win Vermont and the Republican will win Wyoming it would be a very pointless thread.

[PolitiJunkie]

Perhaps this? It's too early to call many states. On election night of 2016 we could start talking a little more. I prefer to wait until states have been called.

I still don't like this map at all; it seems too obvious - of course Vermont will be Democratic and Wyoming will be Republican. The base map should assume Generic D vs. Generic R, and calling Oregon or Michigan swing states assumes a very high-caliber Republican, just as leaving open Indiana or Georgia assumes a very high-caliber Democrat.

On a side note, there's not much to disagree with because literally every state that could be contested (and many that won't) are left open, but if you are leaving Oregon open, you should definitely be leaving Arizona open as well. That's all.

[PolitiJunkie]

lol Barfbag, this isn't the 90's anymore, Tennessee is solidly republican.

Also, if you have Georgia and Arizona as likely, you might as well have Indiana and Missouri as likely too. Maine should be filled in as likely D too. That is all.

Obama won Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, and Maine by a larger margin than Romney won Missouri, Arizona, or Georgia. Also, he won Oregon and Maine by a larger margin than Romney won Indiana, South Carolina, or Mississippi. Finally, he won Maine by a larger margin than Romney won Alaska or Montana. Now, personally, I don't consider any of the states I just mentioned to be toss-ups, but you have to be consistent. You can't call Maine a toss-up but Georgia Safe R when Obama won Maine by 15.29% and Romney won Georgia by 7.82%.

[PolitiJunkie]

All I'm doing is averaging the last four elections and coloring the map in more or less each time.

But the results of the 2000 election are less relevant to the results of the 2016 election than, say, the 2012 election, so your method is garbage.

[PolitiJunkie]

Base map for a Hillary Clinton vs. Generic R race:

Maybe add NV and NM to Clinton.

Tennessee is always a point or two more Democratic than Kentucky, so that should be a tossup as well. In this scenario Indiana would likely be a tossup again too.

I don't think she'd win WV, KY, or LA.

Depends on the candidate. It's kind of strange- her best chances to win states like WV/KY/LA are against a moderate or an extremist. What I mean is, a ticket like Clinton/Warner might defeat a ticket like Christie/Martinez in WV/KY/LA because the Christie/Martinez ticket is the wrong type of Republican ticket for those states- moderate, more focused on fiscal issues than social ones (despite their raging social conservatism, WV and KY happen to be pretty fiscally liberal), from urban blue states, etc. The other side of the issue is that if the Republican candidate was simply a weak extremist, like Ted Cruz, Clinton would have a chance for other, more obvious reasons. Clinton's worst chances to win the state is if she's running against someone in between those two groups- a solid Evangelical conservative who would at least be competitive against Hillary nationwide. The candidate that comes to mind is Scott Walker: I doubt he'd beat Hillary overall, but he is the candidate who would easily beat Hillary in Appalachia. Whatever happens though, the real story is Hillary's IMPROVEMENT in Appalachia. She could lose West Virginia, Kentucky, and Louisiana, heck she could even lose Arkansas, but the story would be her losing by 5 points in states Obama lost by 20-30 points.

[PolitiJunkie]

Base map for a Hillary Clinton vs. Generic R race:

Maybe add NV and NM to Clinton.

Tennessee is always a point or two more Democratic than Kentucky, so that should be a tossup as well. In this scenario Indiana would likely be a tossup again too.

I don't think she'd win WV, KY, or LA.

Depends on the candidate. It's kind of strange- her best chances to win states like WV/KY/LA are against a moderate or an extremist. What I mean is, a ticket like Clinton/Warner might defeat a ticket like Christie/Martinez in WV/KY/LA because the Christie/Martinez ticket is the wrong type of Republican ticket for those states- moderate, more focused on fiscal issues than social ones (despite their raging social conservatism, WV and KY happen to be pretty fiscally liberal), from urban blue states, etc. The other side of the issue is that if the Republican candidate was simply a weak extremist, like Ted Cruz, Clinton would have a chance for other, more obvious reasons. Clinton's worst chances to win the state is if she's running against someone in between those two groups- a solid Evangelical conservative who would at least be competitive against Hillary nationwide. The candidate that comes to mind is Scott Walker: I doubt he'd beat Hillary overall, but he is the candidate who would easily beat Hillary in Appalachia. Whatever happens though, the real story is Hillary's IMPROVEMENT in Appalachia. She could lose West Virginia, Kentucky, and Louisiana, heck she could even lose Arkansas, but the story would be her losing by 5 points in states Obama lost by 20-30 points.

To the extent that the rural South would swing to Hillary, I think she would have a better chance in the states that Obama came close in.  I would be far more interested in how she might swing NC (the obvious one) or GA.  Obama already won it twice, but I would also expect Hillary to overperform massively in FL due to her appeal to older voters.  She obviously has a Western problem and it's really hard for me to pin down whether she is a better or worse fit than Obama for VA.  I imagine her Southern performance would be an average of Bill Clinton and Obama.  I would expect a 51/47 Clinton win against generic R to look something like this:

I think she's a worse fit for VA than Obama. Yes, she appeals to rural conservadems way more than he does, but that will be a lot more important in the Midwest and in Appalachia. She will do worse in VA because she appeals way less to young, white professional suburbanites than he does, and much less importantly, there will be a tiny deficit with black voters (will be negligible in most states but might be worth a point in VA). Either way, the gap between Obama and Hillary in VA wouldn't be nearly as bad as the gap between Obama and Hillary in CO, and I think she'd still be the favorite to win VA whereas she'd be the favorite to lose CO.

[PolitiJunkie]

This is the permanent map I will have in my head until after the 2014 elections. I will make any changes necessary after then. Right now, when its really early, I will be relying on the "Safely Secure" Map for states that both candidates are almost guaranteed to win.

Here is my Safely Secure Map:

Republicans: 130
Democrats: 120

Note: Mississippi, while not overwhelmingly republican, is incedibly inelastic, so I call it Safe R for now.

Note: This is not taking any considerations for any candidates

And here is my Likely Secure Map:

Republicans: 191
Democrats: 185

Note: NE-2 is not lean republican. Many people don't realize that it got much more republican over redistricting, it used to be lean republican, it is now likely republican around the PVI of Georgia.

Note: Likely = >50%, Safely = >70%.

Likely R: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, NE-2, South Carolina
Likely D: Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington

Incredibly partisan. Obama did better in New Mexico and Michigan than Romney did in Arizona or Georgia. Stop trolling.