Early 2016 Senate Ratings

[PolitiJunkie]

Colorado: Michael Bennet (D), Undecided... Toss-Up
New Hampshire: Kelly Ayotte (R), Undecided... Lean R

LOL no.

Washington: Patty Murray (D), Undecided... Likely D
Kentucky: Rand Paul (R), Running... Safe R
Missouri: Roy Blunt (R), Undecided... Likely R

Not LOL-worthy but also no

**Intends not to run for another term

Where did you get that from? Trust me, a Harry Reid retirement is any Democrat's wet dream but what tells you he "intends" not to run for another term and that the Wikipedia designation is a mistake like it is for McCain?

[PolitiJunkie]

and the Democrats will nominate Adam Edelen.

Why would the Democrats nominate someone who has only been Governor for a few months?

Jeanne Shaheen (who I think are most likely to take her on)

You think Shaheen will be voted out in 2014?

New York- Likely D, Schumer's biggest weakness is a primary, and should a Bill De Blasio take the nomination away, someone along the lines of George Pataki could win in the General. The situation is very unlikely however.

Ohio- Lean D, I think Kasich defeats Portman in a primary, and Democrats will nominate Richard Cordaray. Kasich is a slightly more toxic candidate than Portman, and Clinton at the top of the ticket could help here.

Schumer and Portman will be renominated and reelected. Why do people on this forum underappreciate/understimate Rob Portman so much? There are at least 12 seats Democrats should be focusing on in 2016 before Ohio.

[PolitiJunkie]

NV: Tilt R if Reid runs, Likely R if he retires.

In a reasonably blue state in a presidential year, Reid being off the ticket should INCREASE Democratic chances, not decrease them.

[PolitiJunkie]

Time to get real...

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Likely R
Arizona: Toss-Up
Arkansas: Likely R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Florida: Toss-Up
Georgia: Likely R
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Toss-Up
Indiana: Likely R
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Toss-Up
Louisiana: Likely R
Maryland: Safe D
Missouri: Toss-Up
Nevada: Toss-Up
New Hampshire: Toss-Up
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Toss-Up
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Likely R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Toss-Up
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
Wisconsin: Toss-Up

[PolitiJunkie]

Time to get real...

Alabama: Safe R
Alaska: Likely R
Arizona: Toss-Up
Arkansas: Likely R
California: Safe D
Colorado: Likely D
Connecticut: Likely D
Florida: Toss-Up
Georgia: Likely R
Hawaii: Safe D
Idaho: Safe R
Illinois: Toss-Up
Indiana: Likely R
Iowa: Lean R
Kansas: Safe R
Kentucky: Toss-Up
Louisiana: Likely R
Maryland: Safe D
Missouri: Toss-Up
Nevada: Toss-Up
New Hampshire: Toss-Up
New York: Safe D
North Carolina: Toss-Up
North Dakota: Safe R
Ohio: Likely R
Oklahoma: Safe R
Oregon: Safe D
Pennsylvania: Toss-Up
South Carolina: Safe R
South Dakota: Safe R
Utah: Safe R
Vermont: Safe D
Washington: Safe D
Wisconsin: Toss-Up

Pretty good list, except Kentucky which stands out as way too optimistic and Illinois which stands out as too pessimistic. I know people are reluctant to call a race with an incumbent as leaning to the other party, but Kirk barely won in a wave year, and he'll have to deal with Illinois going 60-40 to the Democrat in the presidential race despite not being an established longtime incumbent.

You're right. Lean R and Lean D respectively.

[PolitiJunkie]

Missouri: Would Lean R be more appropriate, I realize Roy Blunt isn't the most popular figure on the street, but he's a republican incumbent in a (now) republican state, this should be Lean R at the most.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Nixon

[PolitiJunkie]

New York- Likely D, Schumer's biggest weakness is a primary, and should a Bill De Blasio take the nomination away, someone along the lines of George Pataki could win in the General. The situation is very unlikely however.

Ohio- Lean D, I think Kasich defeats Portman in a primary, and Democrats will nominate Richard Cordaray. Kasich is a slightly more toxic candidate than Portman, and Clinton at the top of the ticket could help here.

Schumer and Portman will be renominated and reelected. Why do people on this forum underappreciate/understimate Rob Portman so much? There are at least 12 seats Democrats should be focusing on in 2016 before Ohio.

Because Portman's approval rating is just bombshell. He dropped like 16 points after voting against background checks and 10 points after coming out in support of same-sex marriage. Just because the Republicans have held this seat since John Glenn's retirement doesn't mean Portman will soar to re-election especially in a swing-state in a Presidential year. There's almost no way Kasich runs for the seat either because no matter if he loses his Governor's race or not, he has his eyes set on the Presidency.

Ohio right now I would consider a tossup/tilt R, but if Hillary ends up being on the same ballot and the Democrats can get someone like Michael Coleman, Marcia Fudge or Dennis Kucinich to run (Cordray  will decline now that he's with the CFPB), it could be lean D.

You've gotta be fcuking kidding me. You are coming off as barfbag of the left right now.

Here is a ranking of the races in terms of the likelihood of them being Democratic pickups (most likely to least likely)

Wisconsin
Illinois
New Hampshire
Arizona
Florida
Pennsylvania
Missouri
North Carolina
Iowa
Kentucky
Georgia
Ohio
Indiana
Alaska
Louisiana
Arkansas
South Carolina
Kansas
Oklahoma
Idaho
South Dakota
North Dakota
Alabama
Utah

More Likely than Not
Solid Possibility
There's a Chance
Doubtful
Very Unlikely
No Way, José

And for the likelihood of a Republican Pickup

Nevada
Colorado
Washington
Connecticut
Oregon
California
New York
Hawaii
Maryland
Vermont

Perhaps
Not Likely
No Way, José

[PolitiJunkie]

who are clearly about to lose several seats

All right, slow down tiger. South Dakota is the only seat that's gone and Kentucky and Georgia are on the table. The plausible range is from D+1 to R+6, but realistically, it's gonna fall between R+1 and R+3

[PolitiJunkie]

Jeanne Shaheen (who I think are most likely to take her on)

You think Shaheen will be voted out in 2014?

No, that was supposed to read Gov. Hassan, who I think will win re-election and run... whoops.

Yeah I think there is a very high chance of Hassan running and a very high chance of Hassan winning.

New York- Likely D, Schumer's biggest weakness is a primary, and should a Bill De Blasio take the nomination away, someone along the lines of George Pataki could win in the General. The situation is very unlikely however.

Ohio- Lean D, I think Kasich defeats Portman in a primary, and Democrats will nominate Richard Cordaray. Kasich is a slightly more toxic candidate than Portman, and Clinton at the top of the ticket could help here.

Schumer and Portman will be renominated and reelected. Why do people on this forum underappreciate/understimate Rob Portman so much? There are at least 12 seats Democrats should be focusing on in 2016 before Ohio.

Because Portman's approval rating is just bombshell. He dropped like 16 points after voting against background checks and 10 points after coming out in support of same-sex marriage. Just because the Republicans have held this seat since John Glenn's retirement doesn't mean Portman will soar to re-election especially in a swing-state in a Presidential year. There's almost no way Kasich runs for the seat either because no matter if he loses his Governor's race or not, he has his eyes set on the Presidency.

Ohio right now I would consider a tossup/tilt R, but if Hillary ends up being on the same ballot and the Democrats can get someone like Michael Coleman, Marcia Fudge or Dennis Kucinich to run (Cordray  will decline now that he's with the CFPB), it could be lean D.

You've gotta be fcuking kidding me. You are coming off as barfbag of the left right now.

Here is a ranking of the races in terms of the likelihood of them being Democratic pickups (most likely to least likely)

Wisconsin
Illinois
New Hampshire
Arizona
Florida
Pennsylvania
Missouri
North Carolina
Iowa
Kentucky
Georgia
Ohio
Indiana
Alaska
Louisiana
Arkansas
South Carolina
Kansas
Oklahoma
Idaho
South Dakota
North Dakota
Alabama
Utah

More Likely than Not
Solid Possibility
There's a Chance
Doubtful
Very Unlikely
No Way, José

And for the likelihood of a Republican Pickup

Nevada
Colorado
Washington
Connecticut
Oregon
California
New York
Hawaii
Maryland
Vermont

Perhaps
Not Likely
No Way, José

How do you consider Iowa a solid possibility but Ohio doubtful? Grassley already announced he's running and is almost guaranteed to win re-election despite it being a state that usually leans D. Portman hasn't even announced yet if he'll run for another term, but due to his high unpopularity in Ohio, it really shouldn't matter either way. And I will take back what I said on Kucinich being lean D; he is with Fox News afterall so he wouldn't run anyways. But if any seat has a better chance at flipping to the Democratic Party in 2016, it will be Ohio before Iowa.

I agree on everything else except I think Connecticut should be listed under there as "No Way, Jose" because there's nobody who can beat Blumenthal. Even in the GOP wave, Linda McMahon couldn't even come close to defeating him no matter how much money she put into the race.

My entire Iowa analysis is based on the premise that I don't believe Grassley when he says he is running. Sorry, that should have been clarified. It is Safe R with Grassley.

[PolitiJunkie]

Missouri: Would Lean R be more appropriate, I realize Roy Blunt isn't the most popular figure on the street, but he's a republican incumbent in a (now) republican state, this should be Lean R at the most.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Nixon

Just because a democratic governor got elected doesn't mean this race is a potential pickup. Susana Martinez isn't going to block Tom Udall from sliding to victory in New Mexico is she? The right democrats can get elected in Missouri, but Blunt is the incumbent this time. The race is probably in his favor.

Udall and Martinez are both popular. But Nixon is popular while Blunt is unpopular. Plus NM is more blue than MO is red.

That

[PolitiJunkie]

Iowa: Grassley says he is running, in which case he should win, but he'll be in his 80's so there's a decent chance he doesn't run. Tom Harkin might also make it competitive even if Grassley does run.

Why would Tom Harkin run for Senate two years after retiring? Besides, David Loebsack probably wants a turn, and Tom Vilsack may decide to run for Senate but I'd be surprised.