My Finish Predictions - Iowa

[southernnorthcarolina]

I've never seen anything quite like this -- an important race where any of four candidates are seen as plausible winners two days out.  And let's not forget, there are at least two more legitimate candidates, Clark and Lieberman (though the latter is about done, I think) who are not contesting Iowa, but who are working the Granite State hard while the rest are in Iowa.

It seems to me that of the four Iowa competitors, Edwards just might be in the best shape at least for the short term, because even a 3rd-place showing would beat the expectations of two weeks ago.  Gephardt must win Iowa, period, according to the common wisdom with which I agree, for once.  If he can't win in Iowa, Democrats in other primary states will conclude, he can't win anywhere.  My guess is that Dean and Kerry could both survive a 2nd-place finish, but nothing lower.  After all, both have been considered the clear leader at various times; a 3rd-place finish might signify that "the emperor has no clothes."

As startling as it is for this NC Republican to ponder, Edwards could actually win in Iowa, and if he does, he's a player.  He'd need to follow up with at least a 3rd-place showing in New Hampshire, no easy thing even if he does surprise in Iowa (I can't imagine him finishing ahead of either Dean or Kerry there, even granting the momentum he'd have).  It might be a 3rd-place battle in NH between Edwards and Clark to see whose campaign continues on in the South.

Edwards, in my judgment, is still a long shot for the Dem nomination.  But stranger things have happened.  If he pulls the shocker in Iowa, it becomes a plausible scenario.

And what an odd election we'd have if Edwards were the nominee.  The Dems would still write off the South, excepting Florida, and maybe Louisiana and Arkansas.  Edwards would have no chance of carrying his own state against W barring unforseen and catastrophic events, and the same would apply for much of the South.  What states carried by W in 2000 would Edwards target?  Florida, West Virginia, Missouri, and Ohio (the last a state where GOP performance of late has been dangerously lackluster).

I can't remember a more interesting primary/caucus ever having been put on by the "other" party.

Oh, and GO PANTHERS!