Predict who will be elected governor in Nov 2014 in each of the following states

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

California - Jerry Brown
Texas - Greg Abbott
Florida - Pam Iorio
Illinois - Lisa Madigan
Pennsylvania - Allyson Schwartz
Ohio - John Kasich
Michigan - Mark Schauer

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Under current conditions, no way Scott and Snyder are reelected.

You don't seem to be familiar with the concept. Rick Scott is being opposed by the good folks of the Florida Democratic Party, who have an exceedingly spectacular talent for losing elections they really have no business losing. If there was a version of American Idol for mismanagement and general ineptitude, they'd win easily. Rick Scott has money and fairly decent organization; the FL Dems have neither. Someone like Charlie could make it a race, but Scott is not so easily discounted.

I honestly don't even know if Scott will even make it past the primary. The Tea Party's already gearing up against him for the Medicaid expansion.

But Snyder? No chance in hell. With a deep Democratic bench (Peters, Schauer, Bernero), they can fairly easily flip the seat if they can make right-to-work a big issue in the campaign.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Under current conditions, no way Scott and Snyder are reelected.

You don't seem to be familiar with the concept. Rick Scott is being opposed by the good folks of the Florida Democratic Party, who have an exceedingly spectacular talent for losing elections they really have no business losing. If there was a version of American Idol for mismanagement and general ineptitude, they'd win easily. Rick Scott has money and fairly decent organization; the FL Dems have neither. Someone like Charlie could make it a race, but Scott is not so easily discounted.

I honestly don't even know if Scott will even make it past the primary. The Tea Party's already gearing up against him for the Medicaid expansion.

Except none of the three constitutional officials (Putnam/Bondi/Atwater) want to risk their careers on a primary challenge to Scott. West has already ruled it out as well. Maybe Will Weatherford, but he's presently preoccupied.

Who said they had to come from the political arena? Scott himself had no political experience outside of a pressure group he founded. Some candidate that isn't on our radar may very well beat him if the Tea Party throws its support around him/her.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

I'll try to do every state...
2013 elections
New Jersey- Chris Christie
Virginia- Terry McAuliffe

2014- Elections-
Alabama- Robert J. Bentley
Alaska- Sean Parnell
Arizona- Tom Horne
Arkansas- Mike Ross
California- Jerry Brown
Colorado-John Hickenlooper
Connecticut- Chris Shays
Florida- Nan Rich
Georgia- Nathan Deal
Hawaii- Shan Tsutsi
Idaho- Butch Otter
Illinois- Lisa Madigan
Iowa- Chet Culver
Kansas- Sam Brownback
Maine- Mike Michaud
Maryland- Doug Gansler
Massachusetts- Martha Coakley
Michigan- Gary Peters
Minnesota- Mark Dayton
Nebraska- Don Stenberg
Nevada- Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire- Charlie Bass
New Mexico- Susana Martinez
New York- Andrew Cuomo
Ohio- Richard Cordray
Oklahoma- Mary Fallin
Oregon- John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania- Allyson Schwartz
Rhode Island- Gina Raimondo
South Carolina- Nikki Haley
South Dakota- Dennis Dauggard
Tennessee- Bill Haslam
Texas- Bob Deuell (St. Sen)
Vermont- Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin- Scott Walker
Wyoming- Matt Mead

VERY odd picks. I REALLY don't see Branstad losing to Culver, and Malloy's race tilts towards him. Plus the fact that Coakley declined a race in 2014, and she would probably lose to a strong Republican candidate. Hassan looks good so far, but she's been governor for two months, so anything can change. But for now, her electoral prospects look good and her approval numbers are similar to Lynch's.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Might as well go further than that and do them all:

2013
New Jersey: Chris Christie
Virginia: Terry McAuliffe

2014
Alabama: Robert J. Bentley
Alaska: Sean Parnell
Arizona: Ken Bennett
Arkansas: Asa Hutchinson
California: Jerry Brown
Colorado: John Hickenlooper
Connecticut: Dan Malloy
Florida: Pam Iorio
Georgia: Nathan Deal (hate this guy, but he will make it)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie (Bold prediction: Djou runs and gives him a run for his money)
Idaho: Butch Otter
Illinois: Lisa Madigan
Iowa: Terry Branstad
Kansas: Sam Brownback
Maine: Paul LePage (HATE this outcome, but with Cutler likely to run the anti-LePage vote looks split again)
Maryland: Anthony Brown
Massachusetts: Mike Capuano
Michigan: Mark Schauer
Minnesota: Mark Dayton
Nebraska: Don Stenberg
Nevada: Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan
New Mexico: Susana Martinez
New York: Andrew Cuomo
Ohio: John Kasich
Oklahoma: Mary Fallin
Oregon: John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania: Allyson Schwartz
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo
South Carolina: Nikki Haley
South Dakota: Dennis Daugaard
Tennessee: Bill Haslam
Texas: Greg Abbott
Vermont: Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin: Scott Walker
Wyoming: Matt Mead (I see him deferring to Lummis for Enzi's seat)

2015 Elections:
Kentucky: Jack Conway
Louisiana: David Vitter
Mississippi: Phil Bryant

2016 Elections:
Delaware: Beau Biden
Indiana: Mike Pence
Missouri: Chris Koster
Montana: Steve Bullock
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (if she doesn't opt for Ayotte), if not then
North Carolina: Heath Shuler
North Dakota: Jack Dalrymple
Utah: Gary Herbert
Vermont: Peter Shumlin
Washington: Jay Inslee
West Virginia: Natalie Tennant

EDIT: Colors mean shifts. Done in Atlas format.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Pretty much the same. Swap out Daley for Madigan and probably Crist for Iorio.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

2013 elections
New Jersey- Chris Christie
Virginia- Terry McAuliffe

2014 Elections
Alabama- Robert J. Bentley
Alaska- Sean Parnell
Arizona- Ken Bennett
Arkansas- Mike Ross (by a very slim margin)
California- Jerry Brown
Colorado- John Hickenlooper (he'll recover)
Connecticut- Dan Malloy (he'll recover too)
Florida- Charlie Crist (no liberal challengers seem ready to step up, and my gut says Sink won't run)
Georgia- Nathan Deal
Hawaii- Neil Abercrombie (praying Djou/Aiona don't run)
Idaho- Butch Otter
Illinois- Bill Daley
Iowa- Terry Branstad
Kansas- Sam Brownback
Maine- Mike Michaud
Maryland- Anthony Brown
Massachusetts- Mike Capuano (though if Coakley runs I can see Baker winning)
Michigan- Mark Schauer (one good poll away from shifting to a pure tossup)
Minnesota- Mark Dayton
Nebraska- Tom Foley
Nevada- Brian Sandoval
New Hampshire- Maggie Hassan
New Mexico- Susana Martinez
New York- Andrew Cuomo
Ohio- John Kasich
Oklahoma- Mary Fallin
Oregon- John Kitzhaber
Pennsylvania- Allyson Schwartz (though any Republican could make this a race again, I'd rate it somewhere between Leans and Likely D)
Rhode Island- Gina Raimondo
South Carolina- Nikki Haley (this is the same state that elected Mark Sanford to Congress)
South Dakota- Dennis Dauggard
Tennessee- Bill Haslam
Texas- Greg Abbott
Vermont- Peter Shumlin
Wisconsin- Scott Walker
Wyoming- Matt Mead

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Corbett could still get reelected in PA though if you're looking at historical trends considering PA has reelected their governor since 1974.

Same thing for Tennessee: in 2018 when Haslam is term-limited, the Dems will get it back.

Trends are irrelevant. In one of the towns close by, Democrats didn't elect a representative there since 1910. In the great wave of 2006, they did. We came sixty votes away from electing her again in 2012. Times change, situations change, and trends become obsolete.

Corbett is as toxic as Scott right now, except Corbett isn't facing an opportunist who seems to be in it more for the prestige. That's what's relevant. Jim Cooper is the only Democrat who can win statewide for Governor. Bredesen will be too old and Harold Ford is pissing around New York. Those are facts that can happen.

Wyoming- Dave Freudenthal (I don't see Mead being allowed to run for another term, so this could be a huge upset for the Wyoming Republicans).

Freudenthal is term-limited and can't run until 2020 (term limits are very confusing out there. you can only serve 8 out of the last 16 years). His best bet is to announce for Senate and PRAY that Cheney wins.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Dems pick up MI, ME, PA, and FL.