AR Congressional Races 2014

[publicunofficial]

AR-04 could be very competitive. Obama lost it 36-62, but the district was drawn to elect a Blue Dog like Mike Ross, who likely would've held it if he didn't retire.


AR-04's candidates:
*=Not formally announced, but has expressed interest


GOP:
State House Majority Leader Bruce Westerman
Lt. Gov Mark Darr
Businesswoman Beth Anne Rankin*

Democrats:
State Rep. Jeff Wardlaw*
State Sen. Bobby Pierce*

[publicunofficial]

Pryor being against the Syria Resolution is a good move. Cotton is the only member of the Arkansas delegation that supports it.

[publicunofficial]

Why Begich is more likely to be reelected than Landrieu?

Alaska is less partisan, more pro-incumbent, and polling has shown Begich doing better against Treadwell than Landrieu does against Cassidy.

[publicunofficial]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIVFLlvRh0Q

MajorityPAC's 2nd ad against Cotton.

[publicunofficial]

Cook: "Griffin Retirement Moves AR-02 to Lean Republican"

Sabato agrees, he's also moved AR-04 from Safe to Likely Republican

[publicunofficial]

St. Rep. Ann Clemmer (R) will announce for the 2nd Wednesday.

Strong?

She's got a somewhat odd profile. She voted for the 20-week abortion ban, and the "fetal heartbeat" bill. She also co-sponsored Voter ID laws, and allowing guns in schools and churches. Yet she was also one of the Republicans who voted for Medicaid expansion/private option.

[publicunofficial]

Tim Griffin says that he is simply putting his political career on hold, and will likely run for office again sometime in the future.


I bet he regrets not running for Gov.

[publicunofficial]

Filing deadline was today. 

Senate:
Mark Pryor (D) - Incumbent
Tom Cotton (R) - US Representative
Mark H Swaney (G) - Liberal activist
Nathan LaFrance (L) - Businessman
Rod Bryan () - Some guy


AR-01:
Rick Crawford (R) - Incumbent
Jackie McPherson (D) - Mayor of Heber Springs

AR-02
French Hill (R) - Banker
Ann Clemmer (R) - State Representative
Conrad "Colonel" Reynolds (R) - Army veteran
Pat Hays (D) - Former Mayor of North Little Rock
Dianne Curry (D) - Little Rock School District President

AR-03
Steve Womack (R) - Incumbent
Thomas Brewer (R) - Some guy

AR-04
Tommy Moll (R) - Businessman
Bruce Westerman (R) - State Representative
Janis Percefull (D) - Some Chick
James Lee Witt (D) - Former FEMA Director

[publicunofficial]

I'd say


AR-01: Safe R, maybe Likely if McPherson impresses me
AR-02: Lean R
AR-03: Safe R
AR-04: Likely R


I'd also guess Hill beats Clemmer for the nomination in AR-02. I think Westerman wins in AR-04, but I could see Moll winning as well.

[publicunofficial]

I'd say


AR-01: Safe R, maybe Likely if McPherson impresses me
AR-02: Lean R
AR-03: Safe R
AR-04: Likely R


I'd also guess Hill beats Clemmer for the nomination in AR-02. I think Westerman wins in AR-04, but I could see Moll winning as well.

On the surface they both, the 2nd and 4th look that way, but remember 2 things.  One, Mike Ross is running for Governor, which would bring up turnout in both the of the districts, bringing them both down a slot.  Two, the likelihood of the Republican nominee to say something really stupid and both of the Rep's nominees will have to go through hard primary fights, weakening both of them.

I think that Hill and Reynolds will draw from the same base and will split the vote allowing Clemmer to slip past them.  I do agree on the 4th primary though.

I figured Ross's strength in the 4th would be cancelled out by Cotton also driving up turnout. Pryor is also from the area.

And I don't know enough about any of the R candidates to guess they'll say something stupid. It seems like "R Candidate is likely to make a gaffe" has been written about nearly every congressional race at some point or another, and it unfortunately happens a lot less than predicted.

[publicunofficial]

According to Jason Tolbert of Talk Business, American Crossroads did a poll recently in order to quell the Pryormentum talk.


The best they could come up with was a tie, 39-39, with a 4.29 margin of error.

[publicunofficial]

It was aiight. But it still reinforces Pryor's assertion, which this ad is attacking him for, that Cotton is running on his military service as something that qualifies him for Senate.

Yeah but that line of attack sucks. Attacking your opponent for not being a politician is always a dumb move.