Early 2016 Senate Ratings

[publicunofficial]

Assuming McCain and Coburn are the only retirements (I know others could decide not to run, but this is just for now):


Safe D:
New York (Schumer)
California (Boxer)
Vermont (Leahy)
Connecticut (Blumenthal)
Maryland (Mikulski)
Oregon (Wyden)
Washington (Murray)
Hawaii (Schatz*)

Likely D:


Lean D:
Colorado (Bennet)
Nevada (Reid)

Toss-Up:
Illinois (Kirk)
Wisconsin (Johnson)
Pennsylvania (Toomey)
New Hampshire (Ayotte)

Lean R:
Arizona (Open)
Florida (Rubio)
North Carolina (Burr)
Ohio (Portman)

Likely R:
Arkansas (Boozman)
Missouri (Blunt)
Kentucky (Paul)
Georgia (Isakson)
Louisiana (Vitter)
Indiana (Coats)

Safe R:
Alaska (Murkowski)
Alabama (Shelby)
Kansas (Moran)
Idaho (Crapo)
North Dakota (Hoeven)
South Dakota (Thune)
Oklahoma (Open)
Utah (Lee)
Iowa (Grassley)
South Carolina (Scott*)

[publicunofficial]

Likely R:
Missouri (Blunt)

Nixon's really popular, and he's just perfect fit for a D win - downstater, rural background, no connection to the cities.  Blunt's deeply unpopular, and has only got a base in the part of the state that's a given for the GOP candidate anyway - he has very little appeal in other rural parts of the state or in suburban areas.

Which is why I put it as Likely R and not Safe R.

[publicunofficial]

Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Safe R
Arizona - Lean R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Likely D
Connecticut - Safe D
Florida - Lean R
Georgia - Safe R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Toss-Up
Indiana - Likely R
Iowa - Safe R
Kansas - Safe R
Kentucky - Likely R
Louisiana - Safe R
Maryland - Safe D
Missouri - Likely R
Nevada - Lean D
New Hampshire - Lean R
New York - Safe D
North Carolina - Toss-Up
North Dakota - Safe R
Ohio - Lean R
Oklahoma - Safe R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Toss-Up
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Utah - Safe R
Vermont - Safe D
Washington - Safe D
Wisconsin - Toss-Up


These ratings are a starting position, before any retirement announcements (Grassley, Coats, Isakso) or surprisingly strong challengers (Beebe in AR, Nixon in MO, Sandoval in NV).