But I thought Murphy was supposed to make this race lean Dem/Toss-up against Rubio? He is even losing women by the same margin as men against Rubio. Why should he make this race competitive?
Most people agree Murphy would lose against Rubio, but what Democrats (Murphy likely included) are betting on is that Rubio retires his Senate seat to run for President. In which case Murphy likely takes on either Pam Bondi or Jeff Atwater, who are formidable but not as good as Rubio (Which this poll shows).
I don't think anyone ever said it would be Lean Dem against Rubio, that's a serious strawman.
Yeah, I was exaggerating a bit there, but I don't know what makes him so special, either. Is it because he is more moderate than DWS and Grayson or because the FL Dems have a terrible bench? I know he would be a good candidate but is he so much better than Grayson? Really?
FL-18 is a Romney seat, the only one Democrats held in Florida until Gwen Graham was elected. He defeated Allen West, who despite being crazy was also very popular among conservatives from across the nation and had a massive fundraising effort. Murphy beat him in one of the closest races in the country thanks in large part to his own massive fundraising.
In his first term in Congress, Murphy was then able to go from one of the most vunerable freshmen to one of the safest thanks in large part to his again massive fundraising, his work within the district making him popular, and keeping a smart voting record. While his lackluster 2014 opponent deserves some credit, Murphy's nearly 60% win in a red district during one of the worst waves for Democrats ever certainly showcases his prowess.
In short he's well-financed, charismatic, moderate, and knows how to win over conservatives to win in unfavorable territory. Grayson, meanwhile, is somewhat rich, is completely unlikable, and has a record so liberal he'd have trouble winning statewide in a light blue state. I'm not being hyperbolic when I say Grayson would not only be worse than Murphy, he'd be the worst possible candidate to run.
As for DWS, it's not that she's too liberal to run in Florida in so much as she's one of the main leaders of the Democratic party. It's an insane amount of baggage to run on in a light red state. However most of the opposition to her possible campaign has to do with very few in the Democratic Party liking her. She's been awful as DNC chair, isn't liberal or vocal enough to fire up the base (Which is Grayson's one good attribute), and is both personally and professionally the kind of candidate that a Republican could easily demonize as every negative liberal stereotype in one person.
