Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[jaichind]

From AP:
Italy's ex-Premier Matteo Renzi says his center-left party will not join any government led by the anti-immigrant League party or the populist 5-Star Movement, the two victorious forces in Italy's election.
Renzi said both those parties represent an anti-Europeanism that he would not support and said they had had used "verbal hatred" on his Democratic Party lawmakers. He said Matteo Salvini of the League and Luigi Di Maio of the 5-Stars had called his lawmakers mafiosi, labeled them corrupt and said they had blood on their hands.
Renzi says "if this is who we are, govern without us. Know that our place in this legislation is in the opposition."
Renzi acknowledged that his party suffered a "total defeat" in Sunday's general election and said he would resign as party leader after a new government has been sworn in.

[jaichind]

I should have sticked with my original prediction which had the Lega 4 points ahead of Berlusconi.



It was only when I looked up historical election results on Wikipedia that I decided to put Berlusconi ahead ...

Yes, but your bloc-by-bloc prediction were pretty accurate.  Congrats.  The League surge is very surprising.  What is a shock is that they can get to mid to high single digits of the PR vote in the South.  If they can pull that off they deserve to that 17+ vote share.

Is it not possible that the League surge in the south arose because many rightists did not want the aging, convicted Berlusconi, who faces further investigations, as the face of a puppeter of a center right government?

But if that is a case these voters could have voted for FDI.  But they went out of their way to vote for Lega given their history.  That the Lega could sell their vision to, to be fair, a limited set of Center-Right voters, despite what they historically stood for is impressive.

[jaichind]

On the Ministry website, they now list the proportional seats assigned to each list at the Senate. You have to click on the region and then on the sub-areas.

Nevermind, they have disappeared now

It is there now.  How are PR seats allocated?  Is there a separate list per region or is it a national list?  It seems it is a national list to determine how many seats each party gets but then the winners are selected from each region to get the right regional balance relative to vote share.

[jaichind]

My crude calculation for Senate

           FPTP   PR     Total
MS5      44     68     112

Lega      21    37       58
FI          24    33       57
FDI        10      7      17
UDC        3      0        3

PD          8    43       51
SVP        2      1        3
UV          1      0        1
IEI          2      0        2
CP          1      0         1

LEU        0     4          4

Lega beats out FI as largest Center-Right Party in Senate.  PD in 4th place in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

Just as a reminder:
LeU ran the most classic left-wing, Corbyn-like campaign (even stealing his motto and proposal on abolishing taxes on university) and got a whopping 3.3%.

So any analysis simply stating that "PD is not left anymore!1!1!!!1" might miss the point on what the Italian society is at the moment.

Well, I think the system where the vote for FPTP is the same vote for PR and with it the need for tactical voting most likely understates LeU support (and of course overstates PD support.)  If the two votes were separate I would expect the LeU PR vote share to be higher.

[jaichind]

From AP:

(AP) -- Ex-Premier Matteo Renzi is challenging members of his defeated Democrats to publicly declare if they'll support the 5-Star Movement, as he tries to prevent his party from fracturing and backing its political nemesis.
Renzi took to Facebook Tuesday after national election results showed his once-dominant Democratic Party had brought the center-left to its worst showing ever, with the coalition taking less than 23 percent of the vote.
The center-right coalition had 37 percent and the anti-establishment 5-Stars 32 percent. Neither obtained enough to govern.
That outcome has kicked off weeks of horse-trading as each potential governing force tries to pick up support from elsewhere, including from disillusioned Democrats who might be tempted to back the 5-Stars.
Renzi has said the Democrats must be the opposition to any 5-Star government.

[jaichind]

Based on the activities of Renzi either he is still de facto in charge of PD or if PD's new leadership forms an alliance with M5S then he will split PD.  Of course this prospect increases the bargaining power of both Lega and FI.

[jaichind]

http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2018/mar/06/italys-first-black-senator-elected-for-far-right-league-party-1783036.html

Italy's first black senator elected for far-right League party

[jaichind]

Renzi is only staying in charge for the next few weeks in order to avoid a government with M5S.
Some amongst PD leaders would want that, quite foolishly.

You are right.  I just read that Renzi told reporters Monday he would quit but only after a government had been formed.  Boy .. he must really hate M5S to go on as caretaker leader just to make sure PD does not form an alliance with M5S.  While I think it is a bad idea for PD to join up with MS5 it seems to me if Renzi quit he should just quit and let his successor come up with a vision forward.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/italy-s-populists-redraw-political-map-split-country-in-half

Have some good maps

[jaichind]

Silvio Berlusconi on Tuesday blamed his Forza Italia party's poor showing in Italy's general elections on the fact that he could not personally run for office due to a tax fraud conviction.

Also according to

https://www.diariodelweb.it/ultimora/notizie/?nid=20180306-1459

Salvini did not rule out center-right-M5S government

[jaichind]

My best guess, without knowing very much, what will take place would be:

1) Center-Right Lega-FN minority government with Salvini as PM where PD abstains (50%)
2) M5S-PD government (25%)
3) M5S-Lega government (15%)
4) New elections (5%)
5) Some sort of uber grand coalition behind a technicart PM (5%)

[jaichind]

The leader of the Lega, Matteo Salvini, should be the next Italian prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi said in an interview on Wednesday.  "We will loyally support Salvini's attempt to form a government. I am convinced that I will succeed: On my part [...] I will be there to support him."

[jaichind]

Ipsos poll for TV station La7

32% prefer Five Star alliance with League 
29% want Five Star backed by PD 
16% want Center-right backed by PD

40% say Five Star’s Luigi Di Maio should be given mandate to form government
23% prefer a technocrat
21% League’s Matteo Salvini

51% say Italy will go to new elections

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-08/italy-s-league-is-said-to-reach-out-to-renzi-s-party-for-votes

Italy's League Is Said to Reach Out to Renzi's Party for Votes

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[jaichind]

If PD does that they'll collapse extremely quickly.

To be fair we are talking about a PD split where a pro-Lega faction comes out of PD to form an political force that will back a Lega government.  What is being discussed is not the entire PD backing a Lega government although I think that is a real if not likely possibility.   

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-09/italy-s-five-star-is-said-to-mull-jobs-offer-in-bid-for-majority

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[jaichind]

PD Acting leader Maurizio Martina insists on being in the opposition.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-13/italy-s-league-seeks-rival-lawmakers-votes-but-won-t-offer-jobs

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-19/italian-president-is-said-to-allow-months-for-coalition-talks

"Italy President Is Said to Allow Months for Coalition Talks"

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

Lower taxes, more public expenditures, blame Europe when the inevitable crisis comes and then propose an anti-euro referendum.
The path's there to be walked...

Yes.  Before the election I sensed that this was much more likely to take place then conventional wisdom.  Of course there is plenty of horsetrading to be done before we get to such a government. 

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-23/berlusconi-says-league-plotting-government-with-five-star

"Berlusconi Says League Plotting Government With Five Star"

It seems FI and Lega alliance is on the brink.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-24/row-in-italy-s-center-right-raises-risk-of-populist-government

Italy's Center-Right Patches Over Latest Clash on Populists

You must be logged in to read this quote.