Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[jaichind]

I wonder how the Arabs in Israel votes.  I think Arabs make up 20% of the Israel population.  But it seems Hadash/UAL/Balad gets around 10% of the vote.  Are Arabs 20% of the registered voters ?  I assume it is for sure not since some of them would refuse to participate in the process.  Still, I wonder what happen to the other 10% of 20%.  Do some of them vote for the mainstream parties ? (Labor, Likud, Yesh Atid...)

[jaichind]

I thought Kadima will join the Labor-Hatnuah list.  What happen to that ?

[jaichind]

Likud comptroller disqualifies Netanyahu from Likud leadership race; PM likely to appeal

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Likud-comptroller-disqualifies-Netanyahu-from-Likud-leadership-race-PM-likely-to-appeal-385611

Wow.  Now that's intra-party infighting.  One way or another this does not make Netanyahu look that good for the general election.

[jaichind]

4   Miri Regev   31090   

Not good news for Netanyahu

Netanyahu 'repelled' by style of Likud's new top-ranked woman

http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.634996

Or is this a way for Netanyahu to look more moderate ?

[jaichind]

My prediction

Otzma   4
JH        11
Likud    22
Shas      8
UTJ        7
YB          5
Kulanu   9
YA        12
ZU       25
Meretz   4   
JL        13

I think in the end Kulanu will join a Likud based coalition government.

[jaichind]

http://www.timesofisrael.com/livni-forgoes-premiership-rotation-with-herzog/

Livni forgoes rotating premiership with Herzog

October surprise ?

[jaichind]

Any links to results ?

http://bechirot.gov.il/election/English/pages/default.aspx

does not seem to work

[jaichind]

If these exit polls hold up, then all those last minute tactics by Bibi, as sad and desperate as they sounded, actually seems to have worked.  Likud always had a closer  route to power than ZU, the main problem was the optics of a ZU having a large lead over Likud but resulting in a Likud government.   Of it seems that Yachad might be a causality of this but I am sure Bibi will be glad to make that sacrifice.  

[jaichind]

But in the process they lost Yachad, making their coalition that much harder.

Yes, but one benefit of this is that Likud will not end up being the most left wing party of a rightist coalition and instead by roping in Kulanu Likud will be in the middle of Bibi's new government.

[jaichind]

Exit poll table

                          ----------------- Pollster -----------------
Party                          Channel 1     Channel 2    Channel 10
=======================================================================
                          ------------ Number of Seats --------------
Likud                                 27            28            27
Zionist Union                      27            27            27
Jewish Home                        9             8             8
Yesh Atid                           12            12            11
United Arab List                 12            13            13
Kulanu                                10             9            10
Yisrael Beytenu                     5             5             5
Shas                                     7             7             7
United Torah Judaism           6             6             7
Meretz                                 5             5             5
Yahad                                  0             0             0
=======================================================================

[jaichind]

Looking at the vote count now which I assume is almost 50% of the recorded vote, Likud is over-performing exit polls by a large margin.  So far, right wing/religious parties vote share is above 51% and that does not count Kulanu.  

[jaichind]

Looks like ZU friendly area votes are coming in, Likud is falling while ZU is rising.  Yachad is also rising and might have shot at hitting 3.25% if trends continues.

[jaichind]

It seems obvious that Likud will end as the largest party and will form the government. It is likely ZU will narrow the gap but I do not see how ZU can close it.

[jaichind]

Yachad at 3.1% now. 

[jaichind]

I guess the lesson of this election is last minute but desperate appeals based on the politics of identity works.

[jaichind]

In retrospect the moving up of the threshold to 3.25% was genius.   It provoked a merger of a large pan-Arab party which then was used as a bogeyman for Likud.

[jaichind]

Hmmm.  Now it looks harder and harder for Yachad to get to 3.25. 

[jaichind]

So far JL vote is barely higher than the sum of its parts in 2013.  By my calculation in 2013 the right-wing/religious parties got 49.33% in 2013.  So far it is 49.69% without counting Kulanu.  This means that either Kulanu go a lot of the non-right wing vote or the extra higher turnout are latent center-right voters.  Most likely both.

[jaichind]

So, if I am doing my calculation right here is the distribution of the seats so far

Likud 30
ZU 24
JL12
YA 11
Kulanu 9
JH 8
Shas 8
YB 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 5

This cannot be right although I do not claim to know how to do the computations correctly.  These numbers add up to 121. 

[jaichind]

So its all up to Kulanu now.

Even if Kulanu wants to go with ZU it cannot.  It would look bad for them not to back the largest party in my view.

[jaichind]

An I dreaming or the right + far right have lost seats in the end???

Depends on your definition of "right."  Would Kulanu count as right ?