Turkish general election, June 7th 2015

[jaichind]

HDP is not gaining fast enough.  Unless there is a bias toward SE Turkey not being counted then there is significant if not likely chance HDP will not make it.

[jaichind]

For example:

Van: 11,9% reporting
Hakkari: 16.9% reporting
Tun: 21.6% reporting

With 38% counted nationally.

Yep, if these are the reporting numbers than the HDP has a fighting chance.

[jaichind]

46.9 counted

Party 1   45.6
Party 2   23.6
Party 3   17.5
Party 4    9.2

[jaichind]

54.2 counted

Party 1   44.9
Party 2   23.8
Party 3   17.3
Party 4    9.8

[jaichind]

55.7 counted

Party 1   44.8
Party 2   23.8
Party 3   17.3
Party 4    9.9

[jaichind]

59.9 counted

Party 1   44.4
Party 2   24.0
Party 3   17.2
Party 4   10.1

[jaichind]

Looks like HDP is projected to win 10.5% according to media projections.

[jaichind]

This is very close but IF HDP gets in, it's very hard to see how AKP gets a majority, right?

Yep.  If HDP gets in no way AKP gets majority.

[jaichind]

66.8 counted

AKP        43.9
CHP        24.2
MHP       17.1
HDP       10.5

[jaichind]

Current results suggest the HDP have nudged into third ahead of the nationalists MHP

In terms of votes or seats?  Neither seems likely at all.  HDP is projected to get around 70 seats right now and I do not see that changing much when all the votes are in.  I can see its vote share going up from 10.5%.

[jaichind]

72.7 counted

AKP        43.5          268
CHP        24.4          124
MHP       17.1            85
HDP       10.8            73

[jaichind]

81.3 counted

AKP        42.9          266
CHP        24.7          126
MHP       17.0            83
HDP       11.1            75

[jaichind]

85.1 counted

AKP        42.6          264
CHP        24.9          127
MHP       16.9            84
HDP       11.3            75

[jaichind]

SENIOR AKP OFFICIAL SEES TURKEY MINORITY GOVT POSSIBLE: CNNTURK

[jaichind]

TURKEY'S HDP PREDICTS IT WILL GET 80 SEATS IN PARLIAMENT: ONDER

[jaichind]

92% counted

AKP        41.9          263
CHP        25.1          129
MHP       16.8            83
HDP       11.7            75

[jaichind]

So we will end up with AKP minority or AKP-HDP coalition.

[jaichind]

94.5% counted

AKP        41.6          263
CHP        25.2          130
MHP       16.7            83
HDP       11.9            75

[jaichind]

89.9% reporting

AK 41.5% 260
CHP 25.2% 130
MHP 16.7% 83
HDP 12.1% 77

Looks like CNN's difference with the various Turkish medias does not differ just in vote share but the allocation of seats.  We will see soon. which ones is correct.

[jaichind]

97.7% counted

AKP        41.2          260
CHP        25.3          130
MHP       16.6            82
HDP       12.3            78

[jaichind]

I asked before but I'll ask again cus no one answered. Anyone got any idea what MHP's constituency actually looks like?

Rural based cultural nationalist who are fearful of urban cosmopolitan culture as well as Kurdish nationalism which could undermine the unity of the Turkish state.

[jaichind]

98.4% counted

AKP        41.0          259
CHP        25.2          131
MHP       16.5            82
HDP       12.5            78

[jaichind]

Is there a majority bonus? I see AKP is getting a higher share of seats that its results would entail. I thought Turkey used unaltered PR (although with an insanely high threshold).

The seats are allocated by region based on vote share and party list so in theory it is PR.  So larger parties have an advantage where they will also be above to threshold to get seats in all regions whereas smaller parties might win some votes in areas of weakness but not get any seats.  This is actually very similar to how Japan does seat allocation in the PR section.

[jaichind]

With MHP or HDP as coalition partners, AKP can get 60% needed to get Constitutional amendments to referendum.

It will be HDP.  But I am sure even if HDP agrees to this they will get their pound of flesh.

[jaichind]

99.5% counted

AKP        40.8          258
CHP        25.1          132
MHP       16.4            82
HDP       12.8            78