Midnight towns (NH) **results thread**

[jaichind]

Looking at demographic data of Hart's Location

http://www.city-data.com/city/Hart-s-Location-New-Hampshire.html

where Trump got a positive swing from 2012

2012
Obama 23
Romney 9
Johnson 1

2016
Hillary 17
Trump 14
Johnson 3
Sanders 2
Kasich 1

We do have males 23 female 18 so the gender gap is in play for this Trump swing.    Average household income is $51K although it does not report medium income.  Trump seems to be doing well relative to 2012 for high income voters then.  50% of the town has college degrees of above. So so far the view that college educated whites will swing against Trump relative to 2012 does not seem to be true.  Trump seems to be gaining in college educated whites.  70% of the town is married.  We know the Trump might do relatively better for married voters and this does seem to bear out so far.

[jaichind]

Another way to look at Hart’s Location

2016 Primary

GOP  (13 votes)
Kasich 5
Trump 4
Christie 2
Bush 1
Carson 1
Rubio 1

Dem (21 votes)
Sanders 12
Clinton 7
Greenstein 2

Total: 34

2016
Hillary 17
Trump 14
Johnson 3
Sanders 2
Kasich 1

Total: 37

Assuming the 2 Sanders general election voters also voted in the Dem Primary, out of the 21 Dem primary voters 2 defected to either Johnson Kasich or least likely Trump.   Out of the 13 GOP voters it seems Trump won all of them.  In theory the 1 Kasich general election vote could have come from the 13 GOP primary voters but that same person it appears did not vote for Kasich in the GOP primary so we can rule this out as unlikely.  Out of the 3 voters that did not vote in the GOP primary nor Dem primary it seems they went to Trump Johnson or Kasich.

In all of NH in the 2016 GOP and Dem primaries, the GOP primary had 284K voters and the Dem primary 251K voters.  So far the trend is Trump is keeping the GOP primary vote, Clinton keeping most of but not all of the Dem primary vote and Trump/Johnson capturing votes that were not cast in the 2016 primaries. 

We obviously cannot extrapolate this to other parts of NH but so far the Trump camp must be liking these numbers.