Remaining votes (Update: about 500K ballots left to count nationwide)

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        64.23 million     48.08%
Trump         62.21 million     46.57%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.37 million     48.18%
Trump         63.05 million     46.47%

For a Clinton lead of 1.71%

I think the Clinton lead will be less than this only because the estimate of outstanding votes in CA is most likely exaggerated.    Although IL and OH are factors as its is not clear how many more IL and OH votes out there.

[jaichind]

What makes me doubtful about Trump victory in Wisconsin is its near 8% decrease in turnout, which is really contrasting to the Nation trend...so it makes me believe at least that a WI recount is really needed...

Base on the latest numbers WI turnout dropped from 72.9% to 68.6% which is a drop of 4.3%.  Yes the surprising victory of Trump must be related to the drop in turnout.  On the other hand MS turnout also dropped from 59.3% to 53.5% for a fall of 5.8%.   I think MS's turnout fall has to do with the fact that Obama is not running which to some extent decreased racial polarization which in turn reduced turnout overall.  Not sure what took place in WI.

[jaichind]

I think CA has shifted 1% to the Left since election night.  So as badly Trump did on election night in CA the mail in votes were even worse for him.

[jaichind]

Stein has raised money for recount in Wisconsin. PLEASE DO RECOUNT because I cannot wait to see Hillary and Stein losing for second time. And I don't know why she is raising money for recount in PA because difference between Trump and Clinton is above 1%.

Hopefully the Clinton camp does not try to get on board or they will look like Sore Loserman II

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        64.42 million     48.11%
Trump         62.31 million     46.54%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.34 million     48.18%
Trump         63.00 million     46.46%

For a Clinton lead of 1.72%

[jaichind]

The following states have certified their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

          2012 turnout        2016 turnout      Diff
AR          50.7%                    52.6%          1.9%
DE          62.3%                    63.7%          1.4%
DC          61.5%                    60.2%         -1.3%
FL           62.8%                    64.5%          1.7%
GA          59.0%                    58.8%         -0.2%
HI           44.2%                    41.7%         -2.5%
KY           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
LA           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
MI           64.7%                    64.5%        -0.2%
NV          56.4%                    57.1%          0.7%
NH          70.2%                    71.5%          1.3%
ND          59.3%                    59.1%        -0.2%
OK          49.2%                    52.0%          2.8%
SC          56.3%                    56.8%          0.5%
VT          60.7%                    63.5%          2.8%
VA          66.1%                    65.7%         -0.4%
WY         58.6%                    59.4%          0.8%

[jaichind]

obviously not a low-turnout election over the board.

also not in the mid-west if those MI numbers stand for anything...just maybe different voters coming out.

Turnout shifts seems to be weakly correlated with race.  The higher the percentage of the state to contain AAs the more likely there was a drop in turnout and vice versa.

The top 5 AA states/districts by population share are

            Turnout change
DC           -1.3%
MS           -4.4% (my current estimate)
LA           -0.4%
GA           -0.2%
MD          -1.4% (my current estimate)

The bottom 5 AA states/districts by population share are

            Turnout change
MT           +1.8 % (my current estimate)
VT           +2.8%
ID            -0.1%
ME           +1.8%
ND           -0.2%

Does seem to fit the narrative of lower AA turnout due to Obama not being on the ballot.

[jaichind]

"Does seem to fit the narrative of lower AA turnout due to Obama not being on the ballot."

I don't think this is statistically true

Well, exit poll does show that the share of the AA vote as a % of the electorate fell from 13% in 2012 to 12% in 2016

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        64.50 million     48.12%
Trump         62.37 million     46.53%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.53 million     48.22%
Trump         63.09 million     46.43%

For a Clinton lead of 1.79%.  

I guess the claims that Clinton will win by 2.0% are not as wild as I originally thought.  I thought it might stabilize around 1.6% but I guess not.

Also, 65.53 million votes for Clinton is getting close to the 65.92 million of Obama 2012.

Big chunks of the votes outstanding are CA OH WA AZ CO and NY.  Not as sure but there still might be a lot for IL and PA.

[jaichind]

So if Clinton is expected to win by 1.79% and she's currently up by 1.56%, then that means she is expected to gain 0.23% over her current margin. That's actually the exact margin of Florida's Democratic trend, so if everything goes as expected, Florida will end up trending Republican.

Yep.  I was thinking the same thing as I was computing this set of numbers.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        64.64 million     48.16%
Trump         62.41 million     46.49%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.56 million     48.24%
Trump         63.07 million     46.41%

For a Clinton lead of 1.83%. 

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        64.68 million     48.14%
Trump         62.44 million     46.47%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.57 million     48.22%
Trump         63.08 million     46.39%

For a Clinton lead of 1.83%.

[jaichind]

Chances that Clinton's vote total exceeds Obama 2012?

My current projection is  65.57 million votes for Clinton which is still some distance from 65.92 million of Obama 2012.  If anything my number most likely is an overestimate as many mail in votes and provincial ballots  might not get counted as a vote for President.  So most likely Clinton will get close but not hit Obama's number. 

If someone told me before the election that Clinton will hit Obama's total votes of 2012 I would have said that Clinton won for sure.  It seems that Clinton raked up a lot of useless votes in CA, AZ GA MA TX OR and WA.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        64.88 million     48.17%
Trump         62.51 million     46.41%


and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.54 million     48.21%
Trump         63.02 million     46.36%

For a Clinton lead of 1.85%.

[jaichind]

Are we still waiting on any more from CA?

I think 500K more but most likely this is an overestimation since this include provisional votes many of which will not end up counting.  OH has around 190K more, AZ 120K more, WA around 150K more.  IL PA MD and NJ has a bunch more too but not sure how many.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.00 million     48.18%
Trump         62.58 million     46.38%

FL now officially trending GOP

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.58 million     48.22%
Trump         63.03 million     46.34%

For a Clinton lead of 1.88%.

[jaichind]

Any chance New Mexico will have trended Republican when all the votes are in?

Using my projection they will miss it by 0.05%

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.21 million     48.20%
Trump         62.66 million     46.31%

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.57 million     48.22%
Trump         62.94 million     46.29%

For a Clinton lead of 1.93%.

Projected Trump vote falls below 63 million.  Based on this projection NM barely trends GOP.

[jaichind]

The following states have certified (or all but in name) their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

          2012 turnout        2016 turnout      Diff
AL           58.6%                    58.9%          0.3%
AK          58.7%                    61.4%          2.7%
AR          50.7%                    52.6%          1.9%
CT          61.3%                    64.0%          2.7%
DE          62.3%                    63.7%          1.4%
DC          61.5%                    60.2%         -1.3%
FL           62.8%                    64.5%          1.7%
GA          59.0%                    58.8%         -0.2%
HI           44.2%                    41.7%         -2.5%
ID           59.8%                    59.4%         -0.4%
KS           56.9%                    57.3%         0.4%
KY           55.7%                    58.7%         3.0%
LA           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
MA          65.9%                    66.8%          0.9%
MI           64.7%                    64.7%        -0.1%
MN          76.0%                    74.1%        -1.9%
NV          56.4%                    57.1%          0.7%
NH          70.2%                    71.5%          1.3%
NM          54.6%                    54.7%         0.1%
ND          59.3%                    59.1%        -0.2%
OH          64.5%                    62.8%        -1.7%
OK          49.2%                    52.0%          2.8%
RI           58.0%                    59.0%          1.0%
SC          56.3%                    56.8%          0.5%
TX          49.6%                     51.2%         1.6%
UT          55.5%                    56.8%          1.3%
VT          60.7%                    63.5%          2.8%
VA          66.1%                    65.7%         -0.4%
WY         58.6%                    59.4%          0.8%

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.25 million     48.19%
Trump         62.69 million     46.30%

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.55 million     48.25%
Trump         62.92 million     46.32%

For a Clinton lead of 1.93%.

[jaichind]

States that in theory still have sizable ballots are

WA  154K
AZ     93K
CO     79K
NY     57K

IL and MD might still have a bunch.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.26 million     48.19%
Trump         62.69 million     46.30%

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.46 million     48.24%
Trump         62.86 million     46.32%

For a Clinton lead of 1.92%.

[jaichind]

Based on the current data coming in we have
 
Clinton        65.32 million     48.21%
Trump         62.72 million     46.29%

and then extrapolating based on current vote shares in each state and estimated votes outstanding we currently have

Clinton        65.45 million     48.20%
Trump         62.86 million     46.29%

For a Clinton lead of 1.91%.

[jaichind]

The following states have certified (or all but in name) their result along with turnout 2012 and 2016

          2012 turnout        2016 turnout      Diff
AL           58.6%                    58.9%          0.3%
AK          58.7%                    61.4%          2.7%
AR          50.7%                    52.6%          1.9%
CA          55.1%                    54.9%         -0.2%
CT          61.3%                    64.0%          2.7%
DE          62.3%                    63.7%          1.4%
DC          61.5%                    60.2%         -1.3%
FL           62.8%                    64.5%          1.7%
GA          59.0%                    58.8%         -0.2%
HI           44.2%                    41.7%         -2.5%
ID           59.8%                    59.4%         -0.4%
KS           56.9%                    57.3%         0.4%
KY           55.7%                    58.7%         3.0%
LA           60.2%                    59.8%        -0.4%
MA          65.9%                    66.8%          0.9%
MI           64.7%                    64.7%        -0.1%
MN          76.0%                    74.1%        -1.9%
MT          62.5%                    61.5%        -1.0%
NV          56.4%                    57.1%          0.7%
NH          70.2%                    71.5%          1.3%
NM          54.6%                    54.7%         0.1%
ND          59.3%                    59.1%        -0.2%
OH          64.5%                    62.8%        -1.7%
OK          49.2%                    52.0%          2.8%
RI           58.0%                    59.0%          1.0%
SC          56.3%                    56.8%          0.5%
TX          49.6%                     51.2%         1.6%
UT          55.5%                    56.8%          1.3%
VT          60.7%                    63.5%          2.8%
VA          66.1%                    65.7%         -0.4%
WA         64.8%                    65.7%          0.9%
WI          72.9%                    69.3%        -3.6%
WY         58.6%                    59.4%          0.8%

A lot of Midwest states had significant falls in turnout (OH, MN, WI and most like IA once they certify).  Not clear what took place as all of them were competitive and also experienced a Trump rural surge.    

[jaichind]

Popular vote sets a record with 136,050,722 votes counted so far.

Nearly 7 million more than the previous record in 2008 (2012 had only 129 million votes cast).

Although not a majority, Clinton leads by over 2.6 million votes and 1.9%, the biggest lead in popular votes of a Presidential loser. 

So I guess she did make history after all....

Did not Tilden 1876 win the PV by 3%?