Israel-Gaza war

[jaichind]

Netanyahu says 'we are at war"

[jaichind]

Hamas making use of cheap drones to attack Israeli armored vehicles.

[jaichind]

Hamas claims they captured IDF Brigadier General Nimrod Aloni
https://twitter.com/jankibaat1/status/1710607018263032233

[jaichind]

I am still waiting for the collective West media to somehow come up with an argument that Putin is to blame for this.  I can think of the logic to get to that conclusion but I am sure they will come up with something.

no

Like clockwork.  This is the head of https://european-resilience.org/
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1710592188415975760

[jaichind]

This is the first conflict where drones will be used in scale in a way asymmetrical war context   Will be interesting to see what the scale Hamas can use drones to attack and what the IDF tactical response would be.

https://twitter.com/GeoTienou/status/1710618868266287383

[jaichind]

I guess the end game will be eventually some sort of IDF incursion into the Gaza Strip itself.  I wonder what Eyppt's position on that would be.

[jaichind]

I wonder when Hezbollah will start to make their move to coordinate the attacks.

[jaichind]

Israel from Space

[jaichind]

Hamas captured a base on the border with tanks in it
https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1710636390009233767

[jaichind]

[jaichind]

India which historically had close relations with Iran and the Palestinians came out with a very strong pro-Israel position.  This is mostly about Modi/BJP.  I suspect INC would not have a strong pro-Israel position in this conflict.

[jaichind]

Energy prices will surge on Monday.

In the meantime, Biden already ran down the USA strategic oil reserve

[jaichind]

Energy prices will surge on Monday.

In the meantime, Biden already ran down the USA strategic oil reserve

Although Biden selling off the oil reserve for election time was bad it is important to note this graph shows from .75 to .5 and it is not bottomed off at 0.

I agree that the chart is deceptive but it does show that current levels of reserves are down to where it was in the 1980s in a world where the USA's consumption of oil is a good deal higher than it was in the 1980s.

[jaichind]

Energy prices will surge on Monday.

In the meantime, Biden already ran down the USA strategic oil reserve

Sorry, just felt the need to respond to this.

Neither Israel nor Gaza are oil producing nations. Unless you have news about an incoming attack involving Israel attacking Iran, I don't think Oil Prices will increase all that much.

The breakdown of Israeli and Saudi relations is likely, but I doubt the ongoing diplomatic negotiations were being priced in.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-10-07/hamas-attack-on-israel-for-oil-it-s-not-1973-but-it-could-still-turn-ugly

"For Oil, It’s Not 1973 Again – But It Could Still Turn Ugly"

There will be a short-term geopolitical risk surge since there is a chance Iran will be dragged into it.  I do agree that if Iran does not get dragged into it then the energy prices surge will subside but that will be some time from now until the energy markets are clear about that.

[jaichind]

BJP already linking India's fairly small Muslim insurgency to Hamas
https://twitter.com/BJP4India/status/1710691137558810637

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1710696953447936075?s=20

cut them from all supplies.

I think that is 80% of Gaza electrical consumption

[jaichind]

Iron dome does not seem to be that effective in this conflict so far. It seems a swarm approach of throwing a lot of missles at once does make iron dome less effective.

[jaichind]

At this stage, Hamas already got as many benefits out of the element of surprise as they could and they should shift to the defensive and get Gaza ready for bitter house-to-house combat to deal with the IDF invasion that is sure to come.

[jaichind]

One of many possible reasons for Israel's intelligence failure is that Hamas most likely uses Huawei to communicate means that Five Eyes is not likely to be able to listen in on their communications.

https://twitter.com/AimenDean/status/1710709661509247118

[jaichind]

Iran English language newspapers on conflict

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-egypt-attack-tourism-af8a02136c390721a0fdef647394154c

"Policeman in Egypt kills 2 Israelis and 1 Egyptian at tourist site"

My understanding is that the number of Israelis killed is now at more than 2

[jaichind]

Like Austria, Germany also switches from Ukraine to Israel

[jaichind]

Well, if Israel is going to have a position (from 2016) that "We Don’t Want ISIS Defeated in Syria" which I totally understand from a geopolitical perspective then they should not complain when now others might say "We do not want Hamas defeated in Gaza"

[jaichind]

I tried looking up the source here so I could fact-check it and understand/judge the context for myself.

Only a few random blogs and fringe websites have ever posted this headline by this author. Each one provides a source link, each link takes you to one of the different rando sites where the author posted it, each time linking his own identical post on another site as the sole source. I traveled down these links to see where it went, and it carried me through literally every result google gave me when i searched the headline before the trail ended when it linked to a post on blogspot that no longer exists.

Each identical copy of the post claims this news was covered on the Hebrew language news site NRG, and they're reporting it from there... but i have found literally no evidence this article exists

since then, NRG rebranded itself to "Makorrishon" but it maintains a complete archive of the old NRG site here: https://www.makorrishon.co.il/nrg/online/HP_0.html

I have already spent too much of my pre-work free time this morning attempting in vain to locate this original source and at this point I'm like 80% sure it never existed, which I probably should have known based on the fact that it wasn't linked anywhere in that daisy chain of reposts.

I have to actually go to work now but anyone who wants to claim this image as factual is certainly free to continue searching the NRG website in my stead

The link to the original article is gone.  There is a link of something similar in 2016

"Ya'alon: In choice between Iran and ISIS, I prefer ISIS"

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4755215,00.html

[jaichind]

The link to the original article is gone.  There is a link of something similar in 2016

"Ya'alon: In choice between Iran and ISIS, I prefer ISIS"

That's a completely different statement than the original claim to which Bacon King was responding.

Did some more digging.  Found

https://middleeastpress.com/english/israeli-general-we-do-not-want-isis-defeat-in-syria/

"Israeli General: We Do Not Want ISIS Defeat In Syria"

MEP: Israeli intelligence Chief, Major General Herzi Halevi, said that the last three months have been the most difficult for ISIS since its inception.

In a speech delivered at “Herzliya” conference yesterday, Halevi explicitly said “Israel” does not want the situation in Syria to end with the defeat of ISIS “, the Israeli NRG site reported.