RISK Capital II: Finished!

[Јas]

End turn

Whaaat? That's like the worse move I've ever seen. Oh, God, do you people WANT Supersoulty to win?

If that's the worst move you've ever seen, you haven't paid very close attention to some of the other moves in this game.

Is there some sort of nicety restriction that is keeping you guys from trying to wipe out MHS?

Yes. -_-

No really, I don't know about Colin, but I know Joe's dice well enough to know that I would almost certainly fail.

Although... come to think of it... Joe, if you're reading this... don't do anything yet, I need to think something over.

Ah, that makes sense I guess.

I'd still try it. If you're to have any chance at all I think you should do it.

Lewis has no chance at all, even if he is succesful against MHS.
In fact, if he's sucessful against MHS, Supersoulty will have little choice but to use his next go to eliminate Lewis to get all those Risk cards, and given the numbers, location of troops and likely reinforcements, the odds would be heavily in his favour.

[Јas]

That assumes that Soulty has a set of cards to turn in.  If he has 2 of one type and 1 of a third, he won't be able to turn in cards.

No, not necessarily. Currently he can expect 8 reinforcements without cards. Using these appropriately, I'd give him a 66-75% chance of eliminating Lewis on the next go, though that depends on how many of Lewis's men survive the Ohio assault.

[Јas]

Seeing as everyone else is chipping in...

I think there are 2 real options.

1. Defensive
I'd suggest reinforce Texas with 3 (with a view to further reinforcing it with the 2 from Oklahoma in the tactical move) and Mississippi with the remaining 13.

Ernest is right in that the Midwest strategy can't be depended on - it leaves Florida and Texas indefensible.

However, bulking up TX alone won't suffice. I'd suggest that Florida should be either taken with a significant force or surrounded by one - there are advantages and disadvantages to both.

Also, a straight head-on charge on Colin isn't wise as if he's getting about the number of reinforcements speculated, the amount of territories he would lose would not be all that important.

2. Offensive
I'd almost be tempted to slyly try and win this by placing 1 or 2 in Arizona to try and take Hawaii and the remainder in Mississippi to go on tour and try and get both Florida and New Jersey. The reasons why it's tempting are that while the odds are poor, given the powers at play, another chance may not arise.

[Јas]

I still think that taking New Jersey is a good idea. Taking New Jersey and reinforcing it would make it hard for Colin to take the 3 required capitals. Also, as I've said, if he has any sense he will have to contemplate whether it's really worth the risk. If he attacks and fails no one will be able to stop Supersoulty in the following turn. He may have to hurt Soulty instead and hold off his big attack till later.

A significant force in NJ would mean that it's unlikely Colin would win on the next go, however, for MAS himself, what kind of position could he expect to be in by the next round? Presumably, he would lose most of the territories between NJ and his base. Plus his base would be left weak and his capital vulnerable, to Supersoulty in particular.