Canadian federal election - 2015

[Njall]

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2013/07/a-deeper-look-at-polls-from-environics.html?m=1

Kind of interesting thing on 308, looking at the subregional results for the environics poll from late June (subregional in this case meaning the provinces of Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Newfoundland and Labrador, and the CMA's of Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal), as well as comparing overall results and likely voter results in the Ipsos-Reid poll from the same time period.

[Njall]

Those "sub regions" have to have a small sample size. And how are they even defined? Is Toronto the city or the CMA?

CMA, apparently

[Njall]

These days, either a liberal minority or a conservative minority would be plausible.

[Njall]

Guess who (might be) back

[Njall]

Guess who (might be) back

Will he win the nomination.

I doubt it.  I've heard that since he already lost a nomination contest, the national party would have to give approval for him to run for the Bow River nomination.  And even if the party gave him the go-ahead, he would have to get through another contested nomination.  The Mayor of Brooks has already announced his candidacy, and I read that one of the County Councillors in Rocky View County will also be entering.

[Njall]

Guess who (might be) back

Will he win the nomination.

I doubt it.  I've heard that since he already lost a nomination contest, the national party would have to give approval for him to run for the Bow River nomination.  And even if the party gave him the go-ahead, he would have to get through another contested nomination.  The Mayor of Brooks has already announced his candidacy, and I read that one of the County Councillors in Rocky View County will also be entering.

As expected, Rocky View County Councillor Rolly Ashdown has joined the Bow River nomination race.  If Anders is allowed to run, he'll now officially have to face off against Ashdown, as well as Martin Shields (the Mayor of Brooks).

[Njall]

Can the NDP win Edmonton Riverbend without Rajotte, or is it out of their grasp?

Southwest suburban Edmonton has never been super friendly to the NDP.  Or rather, that's what I would've said before the recent provincial election.  I still think that an NDP win would be unlikely there, but I can't say for certain.

[Njall]

Hehehe. If the G&M was trying to play favourites I think they would have abstained from publishing anything critical of the Tories in the first place

Which other seats do you thing are more likely than E-MW?

Calgary Confederation, Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Griesbach, Edmonton Manning, and perhaps St. Albert-Edmonton (Tory incumbent running as independent).

For what it's worth, Mill Woods was probably included because the Liberal candidate there, Amarjeet Sohi, is currently an Edmonton city councillor, and as such has a fairly high profile and level of name recognition.