Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Njall]

The writ is widely expected to be dropped tomorrow.  That will put E-day on May 5th.

The Progressive Conservatives, now led by Jim Prentice, will have nearly completed their 44th year in power by the time the election is held.  Although there is technically a fixed election date law in effect, which would put the election between March 1 and May 31, 2016, the Lieutenant Governor still has the authority to dissolve the legislature and call an election at any time.  The PC government has recently introduced a 10-year fiscal plan to get Alberta off of the "resource revenue rollercoaster," which will see smaller increases in spending than initially budgeted, certain tax increases to make the province's revenue base more stable, and much more resource revenue directed into the province's sovereign wealth fund (the Heritage Fund).  This represents a fundamental shift in the government's conduct around fiscal and budgetary measures, and by all accounts, Premier Prentice wants to give the plan democratic legitimacy by calling a snap election and using the fiscal plan as the PC Party's vision for the future.

At the same time, the opposition parties in Alberta are more-or-less in disarray.  The Wildrose Party, now under the leadership of Brian Jean (former MP for Fort McMurray--Athabasca) is still attempting to recover from the devastating events of last year, when Danielle Smith and most of the WRP caucus crossed the floor to join the PCs.  Broadcasting a fierce "no new taxes"-type message, the party seems to be recovering some lost ground, but they are still far away from the point they were at at this time last year.

The Alberta Liberal Party, under the interim leadership of Dr. David Swann (MLA for Calgary-Mountain View) still seems to be on the slow-but-sure path to obscurity.  In the two elections, the party has largely gotten by on the strength and popularity of their incumbents, who in recent years have been described as more of a like-minded collection of independents, winning more due to individual name recognition and popularity than support for the party.  The party itself has been in 4th place in terms of fundraising for some time now, and has been attracting few credible candidates.  Additionally, in this election only two of its five incumbents (David Swann and Laurie Blakeman) are running for re-election; former leader Raj Sherman is retiring, and current MLAs Kent Hehr and Darshan Kang are both running for the federal Liberals in the October election.

Finally, we come to the Alberta NDP, which seems to be the only thriving opposition party as of late.  Now under the leadership of Rachel Notley (MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona and daughter of former ABNDP leader Grant Notley), the party is riding high (relatively speaking) in the polls.  This is particularly true in Edmonton, where the party has been leading the PCs in opinion polling for the last few months at least.  The NDP have currently nominated the most candidates out of any of the opposition parties, and appear fully prepared for the coming election.



If I were to make a prediction right now, I would guess that the PCs will win another majority, with around 60-70 seats (out of 87).  I'll hazard a guess that the NDP will win official opposition, gaining between 4 and 10 seats (mostly in Edmonton), which would put them at 8 to 14 seats overall.  The Wildrose Party will probably end up in 3rd place; I think that they'll lose one or both of the seats where they have retiring incumbents, but they may re-gain a few rural southern seats that they won in 2012 but lost to floor-crossings.  With regard to the Liberals, they have a good chance of keeping the two seats where they have incumbents, but I honestly can't say if they have a chance of even keeping the seats where they have retiring incumbents.  Finally, I doubt that other parties (the Alberta Party, the Green Party, etc.) will gain any seats.  If the Alberta Party focuses all of their resources on the campaign of their leader (Greg Clark) in Calgary-Elbow, then they may have a shot there, but that's really their only potential pick-up opportunity.

[Njall]

The NDP is certainly doing quite well in Edmonton, and I could easily see them picking up a number of seats (Edmonton-Gold Bar, Edmonton-Glenora, Edmonton-Riverview, Edmonton-Manning, and Edmonton-Decore all leap to mind).  Outside of Edmonton, I would be pretty surprised if Shannon Phillips lost, as she only lost by about 7 points in 2012, and seems to have lots of support in that area.  Joe Ceci will have a much tougher time in Calgary-Fort, as the NDP have next-to-no base in Calgary.  With that said, if anyone can win for the NDP in Calgary, it's him.  Given that he represented most of that area on city council for 15 years, he puts the riding into play at the very least.

[Njall]

Yes, that's what the most right wing province in Canada needs. FOUR left wing parties

In what way is the Alberta Party a "left wing party"? I heard they were a right wing offshoot of the Alberta Liberals and that Danielle Smith considered joining them.

Ever since 2010, the Alberta Party has been presenting themselves as a moderate, pragmatic, and progressive alternative to the existing political parties in Alberta.  Many see them as a "liberal party without the word 'liberal' in their name."

[Njall]

New poll from some outfit called ThinkHQ, as reported by the Calgary Sun. Take it for what it's worth.

Wildrose 31
NDP 26
PC 25
Liberal 12
Alberta Party 5

For what it's worth, that's the result amongst decided voters.  25% of the whole sample was undecided.

[Njall]

My feeling is that the NDP surge will be more muted than people are expecting, this time around at least.  They'll probably win 10-15 seats in Edmonton, along with Lethbridge-West and possibly Calgary-Fort, which will bring them to official opposition status.  The next election (in 2019, most likely) will be one to watch, as the presence of a strong, progressive official opposition may cause the progressive vote to coalesce around the NDP.   

Furthermore, for the NDP  to break through in places like Calgary, it will probably take more than a single election.  Remember, the NDP's citywide popular vote in Calgary was less than 5% in Calgary in 2012.

[Njall]

Does everything think Wildrose is going to implode?

They'll probably keep the seats where they have incumbents, and might pick up a few of the southern rural seats that they used to hold (eg. Cardston-Taber-Warner or Little Bow).  Aside from that, it's hard to see them finding much success.

[Njall]

Woah, what did Prentice do? I swear I was reading only a month ago that he was crazy popular.

Everybody is mad about something in the recently-proposed budget.  Depending on the person, it could be one or more of the hike in sin taxes, the hike in the gasoline tax, the hike in income taxes on high-earners, the re-introduction of a health care premium, the absence of a hike in corporate taxes or a sales tax, the moderate spending cuts or the decisions to hold the line on spending (depending on ministry), etc.

I suspect/hope that some of these people will calm down as time passes, and once/if they realize how unsustainable and economically unwise the plans of the other parties are by comparison.

[Njall]

I suspect/hope that some of these people will calm down as time passes, and once/if they realize how unsustainable and economically unwise the plans of the other parties are by comparison.

The other parties can just make empty promises until after the election

That seems to be the Wildrose campaign strategy at this point.  

I'm not familiar with Alberta politics but it looks like the election was called right after a bad news budget? They didn't give time to people to digest it and do polling to evualate the reaction? Maybe the strategy is just to bet the other parties are not organized or credible enough.

Betting on the organization and credibility of the other parties was certainly part of it.  The budget was also released alongside a 10-year fiscal plan to get Alberta back into surplus, to get Alberta off the "resource revenue rollercoaster," to start investing in the Heritage Fund again, etc.  It's really the long-term fiscal plan that the Party wants to focus the conversation on.  Unfortunately, some people are more concerned with the extra 4 cents per litre that they have to pay at the gas pump.

[Njall]

Anyways, njall, when are you going to join the dark side? It's all the rage to be an NDPer in Alberta now.

Haha, not for a while yet.  I'm highly supportive of my local PC MLA (Linda Johnson), so I'm sticking with the party at least as long as she's in office

[Njall]

The NDP candidate in Medicine Hat has stepped down after being charged with simple assault by the Medicine Hat Police Service.

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[Njall]

New 1 Question Poll (for what it's worth)

NDP: 32%
Wildrose: 28%
PC: 19%
Lib: 12%
AB: 9%

Regional breakdowns

Edmonton

NDP: 44%
Wildrose: 24%
PC: 17%
Lib: 11%
AB: 5%

Calgary

NDP: 26%
Wildrose: 26%
PC: 23%
Lib: 16%
AB: 8%

Rest of Alberta

Wildrose: 33%
NDP: 27%
PC: 17%
AB: 13%
Lib: 10%

lol...

There are so many problems with this...I don't even know where to begin.

[Njall]

In 2012, the PCs 'borrowed' tens of thousands of votes from Liberals and New Democrats to stop Wildrose.  I don't think progressive voters are in a lending mood this time.

Liberals might be best hope for borrowing.

Borrowing what? Liberals are polling quite low so their support is mostly die-hards and people living in Liberal ridings.

The Liberals have been polling at 10-13% these days, and in 2012 they only got 10% while running a full slate of 87 candidates.  If the Liberals only end up running 30 or 40 candidates this time around, it's conceivable that a good number of voters who indicate that they'll vote Liberal will migrate to other parties (primarily the PCs). 

It's noteworthy that in a poll that was conducted last week, both the WRP and NDP were rated as "too extreme for me" by 44% of respondents.

[Njall]

Can the OP add in the election's date, as is standard procedure round here ? It's May 5th, right ?

Done, sorry about that.  And yes, it is May 5th.

EDIT: I just noticed when scrolling through the Elections Alberta website that the Liberal candidate in Calgary-Hawkwood is a mediocre student who's in my program at school and started talking about running literally two days ago.  *facepalm* I knew that the liberals were desperate, but not that desperate.

[Njall]

I think 1abvote has really jumped the shark with their latest poll. NDP double digit lead, including leads in Calgary and the rest of Alberta.

Most likely, but there is faint odds it's right. Fundraising numbers went out, and NDP raised 400k last trimester, against 125k for Wildrose. That may help them to catch anti-PC vote (and spinnnng the fact Wildrose is not running in all ridings).

The WRP actually raised $355k last quarter; they were very close behind the NDP.  And the WRP is running candidates in 86 of the 87 ridings in the province; the only riding that they're not contesting is Rachel Notley's Edmonton-Strathcona.

[Njall]

Mainstreet:

WRP: 32 (-3)
NDP: 31 (+1)
PC: 26 (+1)
ALP: 8 (+4) [reverting to the mean?]
AP: 4 (n/c)

NDP at 55% in Edmonton (31 point lead), but third place in Calgary and 2nd in ROAB.

For what it's worth, here is the province-wide breakdown including undecided voters:

WRP: 25% (-4)
NDP: 24% (-2)
PC: 20% (n/c)
ALP: 6% (+3)
ABP: 4% (n/c)
Undecided: 21% (+2)

[Njall]

8.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Anam Kazim, Applications Engineer, B.Sc-Chemical Engineering, M.Sc-BioChemical and Environmental Engineering, Calgary-Glenmore

After seeing her performance at the Calgary-Glenmore candidates forum tonight, I think it's safe to say that, qualified as she may be, she can't articulate her points to save her life.  Not that the Liberal or Alberta Party candidates did any better...

[Njall]

Edmonton-Ellerslie poll from Mainstreet: NDP 49, WR 24, PC 21, Lib 6

They also promised a new province-wide poll this morning (Mountain time).

Impressive numbers for one of the more suburban Edmonton ridings.

Ellerslie used to be quite a strong Liberal riding (it voted Liberal until 2008), and until 2012 the combined Liberal and NDP vote there tended to be between 50% and 60%.  It's also worth noting that that area (as part of Edmonton-Mill Woods) voted NDP in 1986 and 1989.

[Njall]

Jean will win easily. I imagine Prenitce and Swann could be in trouble.

I'd actually disagree with this analysis.  I think that Jean is favoured in Fort McMurray-Conklin, but he doesn't have it tied up.  Fort McMurray historically has pretty low voter turnout, so GOTV is crucial, and the PCs are generally considered to be the best party when it comes to ground game.  It's also worth noting that in the last election, Fort McMurray voters voted the incumbent Wildrose MLA out of office in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo.  Despite the geographic sizes of both Fort McMurray ridings, it is important to remember that their populations are almost entirely urban.  Urban Alberta largely rejected the WRP in 2012, and most WRP strength is still found in rural areas.

I think that Swann will hold Calgary-Mountain View.  Because it's a Calgary riding with a progressive incumbent, the common logic is that progressive voters will rally behind him.  I know too that early on, Mountain View was the only Calgary seat that the central PC campaign had privately given up on.

Prentice should also be safe in Calgary-Foothills.  His is one of the strongest PC seats in the provine these days, and during the by-elections, this was the only one of the four seats to see an increase in PC vote share.  Additionally, that riding (the Edgemont area in particular) has a fairly sizeable Chinese-Canadian population, and I'm told that that demographics tends to be very strongly PC, especially in Foothills.

Oh, and for Calgary-Elbow, it'll either be the PCs or AP.  Judging by the sign game (and the lack of a serious Liberal candidate), Clark is favoured, but Dirks is a very strong campaigner, so I wouldn't count him out yet.

[Njall]

It's a TIE in Glenmore with all boxes counted. 7015 for both PC and NDP.

^This is why I've been silent all night.  I'll have some more coherent thoughts up later; gotta dash over to the campaign office right now with my scrutineer sheets...

[Njall]

Because my brain can't get off the topic of recounts right now, I've been wondering if a recount will also end up happening in Little Bow?  Ian Donovan only lost by 12 votes...

[Njall]

Other than a slight overestimation of the NDP and slight underestimation of the PCs, I'd say the polling for this election was exceptional. All of the projections I saw have lined up quite well with the overall results.

Given how few Tories survived, is it safe to assume that all of the remaining former Wildrose floor-crossers have now been wiped out?

I believe they said on the CBC that one was reelected.  I forget who though.

Edit, nope I guess one was leading, but that person lost in the end.
Albertans also punished the Wildrose floor-crossers in tonight's vote. All of the MLAs who migrated to the PCs last year lost their seats.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-2015-results-ndp-wave-sweeps-across-province-in-historic-win-1.3062605

Some of them did surprisingly well though, like in Chestermere-Rocky View, the only riding to see an increase in PC support.

Interestingly, Mike Ellis (Calgary-West) also saw an increase in vote share from the by-election last year.  Down about 3 points if you use 2012 as a reference point, but still impressive.

[Njall]

Wonder what's behind the lower NDP support among Stoney Tribe and Tsuu T'ina Nation.

Some reserves have White communities in them. I believe Tsuu T'ina does.

Yes, the (majority-)white townsite of Redwood Meadows is located on the Tsuu T'ina reserve, and falls within the polls from the reserve.  I'm not sure if a similar situation exists on the Stoney reserve.

Also, has anyone noticed the staggering NDP support on the Samson Cree reserve (in Wetaskiwin-Camrose)?  No idea what's behind it, but the NDP got 94.36% of the vote there.

[Njall]

Narrowly-defeated PC incumbent Linda Johnson will apply for a judicidial review of the results in Calgary-Glenmore