Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Njall]

One thing that's been puzzling me is how surprisingly robust and enduring Liberal support seems to be in Winnipeg--granted, it may be a strong slate of candidates, three retired CPC incumbents, and continued Selinger backlash; but, still.  (How are the *provincial* Liberals doing, anyway?)

The Manitoba Liberal Party currently has only 1 of 57 seats in the legislative assembly, but they've been polling at around 20% as of late, and seem to have picked up nearly all of the support that the MBNDP has lost.

[Njall]

Semi-interesting political happening from Calgary: Rick Hanson (former Calgary Police Chief and 2015 PC candidate endorses Liberal Nirmala Naidoo in Calgary Rocky Ridge.

[Njall]

... speaking of Riding level polling to be taking with a grain of sail, CROP has the NDP leading... Papineau
NDP - 46%
LPC - 35%
BQ - 10%
http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/election/trudeau-in-trouble-in-papineau-riding-poll-1.2568576?hootPostID=7b14fa55793444883a6592832cbc868a

It should be noted that that poll was commissioned by the NDP.

[Njall]

Leadnow has released 31 riding polls that were conducted between Sept. 18 and Sept. 21

Vancouver Granville: 36% - 30% - 29% - 6%
Port Moody--Coquitlam: 41% - 34% - 19% - 7%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge: 41% - 35% - 19% - 6%
North Island--Powell River: 41% - 27% - 18% - 14%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith: 34% - 24% - 24% - 17%
Kootenay--Columbia: 37% - 37% - 15% - 11%

Yukon: 39% - 29% - 27% - 4%

Calgary Centre: 47% - 39% - 11% - 3%

Saskatoon University: 37% - 37% - 22% - 4%

Winnipeg South Centre: 38% - 31% - 23% - 8%
Elmwood--Transcona: 39% - 37% - 20% - 4%

Eglinton--Lawrence: 37% - 35% - 24% - 4%
Etobicoke Lakeshore: 40% - 38% - 19% - 3%
Kitchener Centre: 33% - 31% - 30% - 7%
London North Centre: 35% - 35% - 25% - 5%
Willowdale: 45% - 36% - 15% - 5%
Kanata--Carleton: 44% - 37% - 13% - 5%
Nepean: 40% - 34% - 19% - 8%
Orleans: 51% - 36% - 11% - 3%
Ottawa West--Nepean: 39% - 35% - 20% - 5%
Waterloo: 39% - 31% - 26% - 3%
Niagara Falls: 42% - 27% - 25% - 6%
Sault Ste. Marie: 34% - 31% - 30% - 6%
Brantford--Brant: 39% - 30% - 25% - 6%
Cambridge: 43% - 34% - 17% - 6%
Guelph: 45% - 25% - 18% - 12%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound: 43% - 29% - 20% - 9%

Fredericton: 37% - 32% - 20% - 10%
Saint John--Rothesay: 38% - 33% - 25% - 4%

Central Nova: 50% - 23% - 20% - 7%
Cumberland--Colchester: 54% - 32% - 7% - 6%

[Njall]

Leadnow has released 31 riding polls that were conducted between Sept. 18 and Sept. 21

Kanata--Carleton: 44% - 37% - 13% - 5%

There are two Conservatives candidates in Kanata?

Haha, whoops, that's what I get for copy-pasting the results format so I don't have to keep typing colour tags.  I've fixed it in the original post; the CPC candidate has a 7-point lead over the Liberal.

[Njall]

So I've been out, what's the reason NDP has dropped in the polls?

Part of it is that their numbers in Quebec (and Ontario, somewhat) have been dropping recently.  Arguably, their very high recent numbers in Quebec were inflating their national numbers to a certain degree.

[Njall]

Nanos: 34/31/25.  (I don't think this was posted here already)

[Njall]

One of my profs is doing another case study about the correlation between number of lawn signs on private property and election results..  This time they're looking at Calgary Centre.  The reason that I bring this up is that the article highlights Kent Hehr's significant apparent sign advantage over Joan Crockatt, as Hehr has 1,191 signs on private property while Crockatt has 791.  This could be especially telling for how the election in Calgary Centre will go, as most of the counted signs would have come from the parts of the riding outside of downtown (the neighborhoods largely made up of single-detached houses), which are also the neighborhoods that Hehr did not represent as a provincial MLA.  Calgary-Buffalo, which was Hehr's provincial riding, is mostly made up of downtown and the Beltline, where the vast majority of housing is in condos and apartment buildings, and where lawn signs don't exist to help determine voter intentions.