Why so much certainty for Comstock in a district that's only +2 R?
Gut feeling plus it tends to be more R downballot; Allen was within a point of Kaine there and Cuccinelli carried it.
Exactly, and she seems to be a Republican in the mold of current congressman Frank Wolf. She should appeal well to VA-10.
Totally agree with all of this, but Foust would be favored had Marshall won the GOP nomination. He's the Tea Party, "rape abortion is a sin!" firebrand guy who came in 2nd against Comstock.
FL-2 - I'm unsure on this one, but my gut tells me Graham b/c money and a very strong, likeable candidate.
NH-1 - Shea-Porter. Guinta's just too conservative and he can't expect another 2010 wave this year. It's only an even district, to, so yeah.
AR-2 - Hill. The district has been trending Republican at the Presidential level plus Hill isn't all that bad. He's an establishment-backed guy whose raised and spent tons of money so far. Pryor will win the district, but I don't think Hays can.
WV-2 - Probably Mooney. We're fully aware that strong Democratic candidates (Manchin) can win in West Virginia when the GOP there nominates awful candidates (Raese), but it's too late in the game for a Democrat to win an open federal seat here.
WV-3 - I'm tilting towards Rahall. He won by a reasonably comfortable margin in 2012 and he does a good job competing with the surge of ads and staying friendly with the coal community.
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