For Republicans:
Nevada - Reid's a fighter, and Sandoval, Heck and Amodei won't happen. The NV GOP might be lucky to get Krolicki or Hutchinson, but it's a tossup at best for them now when you factor in Reid's campaign and the state and the year.
Colorado - It starts at lean D, and I doubt the CO GOP will skate by again. They barely won that seat with a weak Democratic campaign there, turning the GOP candidate into a fake moderate hero, and a wave. Not to say that the GOP can't beat Bennet, but if I was NRSC Chair, I wouldn't put a lot of money into this race. It's still a loss even if it's just by 1 or 2 points by the Republican.
And that's it. They couldn't even win California, Washington or Connecticut in GOP midterm waves, so I highly doubt they'll win them in a Presidential electorate.
For Democrats:
Illinois/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania (obviously)
New Hampshire - New Hampshire Democrats have plenty of choices to pick from, though Ayotte will need to be weakened down a lot.
Ohio - Unfortunately Portman now has 100% Ohio GOP establishment support behind him, including some endorsements from mid-profile Ohio Tea Partiers who were considered potential challengers to him in the primary. Nonetheless, assuming Strickland or another more well-known Democrat doesn't run, Sittenfeld has shown to be a strong candidate and can run a strong campaign if he has the resources he needs to take on Portman.
Arizona - We still don't know yet when AZ will finally flip, but 2016 is a strong chance when the GOP nominee here will either be John McCain or a crazy Tea Partier. Just a matter of recruitment effort and campaigning here on the part of Democrats.
North Carolina - It will be among the races targeted, though it's very hard to see what happens here given every candidate including the Senator himself is unknown. Burr does have a weak record as Senator though and his two times he's been elected were in GOP years. He could definitely be taken down in a good Democratic year.
Florida - I'm only saying this because it's Florida in a Presidential year. I don't have any hope in the Florida Democratic Party. If they can't beat Rick Scott, then I don't know, but they'll probably find another perennial loser somewhere in their bench to screw it up.
Indiana, Alaska, and Missouri won't be in play unless Democrats get the best possible candidates here (Bayh, Begich, Zweifel). I dubt Bayh or Zweifel run, though I could see a "Childers" situation where Democrats encourage Begich to run given Murkowski's high vulnerability in the primary.
In Arkansas, Beebe already declined, though it's possible Boozman gets primaried. He's arguably the weakest GOP incumbent running in 2016. Georgia could become competitive, but I don't think it's in play two years out. We'll have to see if Broun challenges Isakson, and if any top-tier Democrat jumps in. And Iowa only becomes competitive if Grassley changes his mind.
The use of the filibuster was a poor method in which G O P gained power, by saying Reid got nothing done.
I do want Reid to lose, if we can net four seats, that my map illustrates, with Ohio, should Mike Coleman oust Portman. But, we can play the same game that was used last time with Kirk, Toomey, and Johnson who blocked immigration and equal pay.
Reid should lose tmbecause of CRONIBUS passing a Democratic chamber.
Coleman is one of the worst potential candidates Ohio Democrats could get. He could never beat Portman. His campaign for Governor back in 2006 flopped miserably after it was found out his wife and campaign adviser were arrested with DUIs and his "infamous" Glenn Beck Mifflon school incident, and he had to drop out in disgrace after Redfern and the ODP turned to Strickland. That and among all potential Democratic candidates, he's a very good friend of Kasich, who endorsed Portman for re-election. You see the problem there.
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