Way too pro-Trump.
My map would look something like this:
Dark Shade: Safe
Medium Shade: Likely
Light Shade: Lean
Gray: Tossup
I don't even think that many states would just "lean" toward a certain candidate. I could be wrong, of course, but the electoral map is increasingly rigidified in a way that should strongly favor Clinton. With Trump as polarizing as he is, Clinton is favored in all the Obama '12 states (and thus the election), while Trump could still easily carry all the Romney states, with only North Carolina being truly competitive. Most Obama-lovers will back Hillary, and most Obama-haters will not. Hillary could win the popular vote by anywhere from 3 to 10 points, and the electoral map should appear pretty similar to mine.
Poll
