IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[Mr. Illini]

Let's rumble.

[Mr. Illini]

Progressive Lincoln Square alderman Ameya Pawar is mulling a run:

http://abc7chicago.com/politics/ald-ameya-pawar-considering-run-for-governor-in-2018/1633085/

Been following this guy for awhile now. Used to live in his area and have some mutual connections.

He's a real champ, but I hope he doesn't use up too much credibility in what could be a futile effort. Kennedy and Pritzker bring more money, influence, and name-recognition.

[Mr. Illini]

Let's rumble.

I should be nervous, but I'm confident you guys will nominate a corrupt doofus.

I don't blame you after the 2010 and 2014 fiascos (both Gov and Sen).

However, 2016 was a big turnaround. Duckworth did well and Dems generally overperformed expectations state-wide.

[Mr. Illini]

ILGOP released an ad against Kennedy already. Looks like they are pretty certain that he will throw his hat in.

I do appreciate the "Rauner has an awesome plan but Dems have blocked it" narrative coming from muon.

Rauner won an election and decided he had a mandate to fully implement his "Bring Back Springfield" plan and if he didn't get every piece, he was going to light the place on fire.

The people of the state did elect him, but they also maintained a Democratic supermajority in the chamber. That means he will have to work with the other side in some capacity.

In 2018, I'll be donating heavily to his challenger's campaign. As executive, he is chiefly responsible for the lack of a state budget and it has proven extremely damaging to my alma mater and to many of the great organizations in Chicago working to address issues facing our city.

[Mr. Illini]

Alderman Ameya Pawar is running for Governor

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Pawar is a good guy. I'm a frequent of Ravenswood and have a couple friends that have known Pawar personally for years. Certainly a big task considering some of the other big names (and with big money) considering bids.

[Mr. Illini]

Kennedy in.

Got my endorsement.

Ugh, this is going to be tough. Ameya Pawar is a friend of some friends, but I don't know how I could pass up a vote for the son of Bobby K.

Regardless, with the money and influence of the Kennedys (and potentially Pritzkers), Pawar may be out of it early on.

If it is a Kennedy vs Pritzker showdown, I'm with Kennedy.

[Mr. Illini]

How the hell is Biss not walking away with this? Can a Prtizker or Kennedy supporter please tell me why the hell they think these idiots would be better candidates than Daniel Biss? This is how you lose! As weird as this sounds... I expect better from my Illinoisan Democrat friends.  

This comment reads plenty like the author doesn't understand Illinois politics.

First, I am going to leave Kennedy aside. He isn't gaining much traction, and I actually think he's a pretty good candidate. He's the only one that has taken on Rahm on issues of gentrification and gun violence in Chicago. Biss hasn't done any of that. In fact, Biss is a long-time ally of the Cook Co Dem establishment and only recently picked up the Bernie platitudes.

Addressing Pritzker, he's popular because:

1) The machine says he is going to be - the machine no longer exists in the "what have you done for me lately" sense, but the tight network of Democratic organizations in the city still exists and what they push in their respective wards comes directly from those at the top - mostly Madigan.

2) He is the only one with the $$ to air ads en masse. This helps his popularity in the burbs and downstate - he's the only Democrat most casual Dems know about because they aren't researching and they see him on TV. His presence on the air has been very strong.

That ad is not helping her in the Collars at all.

That's not where she wants help. Even thought she is from DuPage, I don't think she expects that trying to make in-roads in the burbs will be an efficient use of her time. She's hoping for low collar turnout as a result of Pubs disaffected by Trump. Then she's hoping to get this message to enough folks downstate to convince them to 1) switch and 2) get to the polls.

It's not a winning strategy if you look at the history of GOP primaries in this state, but hey, the collars are becoming less Republican, so their influence is waning.

And, of course, I'd just like to add what most already know: the ad is disgusting and embarrassing.

[Mr. Illini]

Preckwinkle endorses Pritzker

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-met-preckwinkle-pritzker-endorsement-20180207-story.html

Biss lands support of Move On and Our Revolution

https://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/our-revolution-illinois-endorses-sen-daniel-biss-471698764.html

https://front.moveon.org/moveon-members-in-illinois-endorse-daniel-biss-for-governor/#.Wnuhm6inE2w

[Mr. Illini]

Preckwinkle endorses Pritzker

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-met-preckwinkle-pritzker-endorsement-20180207-story.html

Biss lands support of Move On and Our Revolution

https://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/our-revolution-illinois-endorses-sen-daniel-biss-471698764.html

https://front.moveon.org/moveon-members-in-illinois-endorse-daniel-biss-for-governor/#.Wnuhm6inE2w

>Preckwinkle

There goes a small chunk of support for Pritzker.  The Pop tax stuff should still be somewhat relevant in people's minds.

She will easily win re-election this year

[Mr. Illini]

Controversial pollster Victory Research shows a dead heat between Pritzker, Biss
https://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/poll-taken-day-after-fbi-wiretap-release-finds-pritzker-biss-in-dead-heat/

[Mr. Illini]

What would a Pritzer versus Ives matchup look like if she doesn't say anything else crazy and his ties to corruption keep growing?

Cook and all collars (but maybe McHenry) go to Pritzker and the rest doesn't matter at that point.

[Mr. Illini]

I feel bad for Illinoisans who consistently must vote for the lesser evil. In VA, we generally have sensible choices. Generally.

Corporate Dems vs. Bible Belt Republicans

What's not to like?

[Mr. Illini]

Question for you all, does anyone have any idea what the AG race is looking like?  Is the People's Pat gonna win the D Primary?

Quinn's definitely the frontrunner, Raoul has most of the institutional support. I'll probably be voting for Raoul (which I'm not happy about, but he's the one with the best shot of winning) as the not-Quinn, but I expect Quinn will win.

Quinn doesn't seem to have any momentum at all here in Chicago. I actually was not aware that some viewed him as the front runner.

I am leaning toward voting for Sharon Fairley. I have confidence that she will be tough on CPD like Lisa Madigan has been.

God help us if Quinn is nominated.

[Mr. Illini]

Question for you all, does anyone have any idea what the AG race is looking like?  Is the People's Pat gonna win the D Primary?

Quinn's definitely the frontrunner, Raoul has most of the institutional support. I'll probably be voting for Raoul (which I'm not happy about, but he's the one with the best shot of winning) as the not-Quinn, but I expect Quinn will win.

Quinn doesn't seem to have any momentum at all here in Chicago. I actually was not aware that some viewed him as the front runner.

I am leaning toward voting for Sharon Fairley. I have confidence that she will be tough on CPD like Lisa Madigan has been.

God help us if Quinn is nominated.

Name rec + ballot line placement -- there hasn't been a ton of attention to the AG primary, especially with the late start this year. Lot of people voting for the only name on the ballot they know. I expect Quinn will win with something like 27% of the vote.

Side note: you should change your avatar to Illinois. Join up.

[Mr. Illini]

Let's rumble.

I should be nervous, but I'm confident you guys will nominate a corrupt doofus.

It's happening

[Mr. Illini]

New D Primary Poll

Pritzker 32%, Kennedy 26%, Biss 22%, 16% Undecided

Me thinks no one knows who will win until late Tuesday night or after.

https://twitter.com/MaryAnnAhernNBC/status/975429695268425734

Sounds like this is from a fake polling firm.

That being said, it's kinda surprising that a real firm hasn't polled here.

Also of note from the poll - it shows Quinn with a 2 point edge on Raoul, Kaegi up 10 on Berrios, and Preckwinkle within the MoE against Fioretti

[Mr. Illini]

Definitely feels like Kennedy has momentum going in today. Pritzker win still win more likely than not, but let's hope for an upset!

An Ives win would be hilarious. Icing on the cake would be Harold, Rauner's AG pick, going down in that primary.

I think Raoul pulls it off with strong numbers in Chicago.

Bold prediction: Preckwinkle loses to Fioretti (don't blame me!)

Kaegi should beat Berrios, but don't rule out some trickery.

Feeling a Newman victory.

As for the Kennedy signs, I think he is doing targeted signery. Green signs in heavily-Irish hoods. It's not yellow - it is orange.

Let's rumble!

[Mr. Illini]

Can't believe I'm essentially rooting for Chris Michael Scott Kennedy. I know this sounds pretentious, but Illinois is really missing something great with Biss. I dunno, maybe he'll run for IL-09 someday.

No we're not. We've already got plenty of opportunists unwilling to take on the machine.

[Mr. Illini]

Pritzker looks ready to win Lake with almost all of it in. Good sign for him - would have thought the burbs would be his weakest spot.

[Mr. Illini]

Cannabis legalization winning big in Cook County.

Kaegi up solidly on Berrios - not clear what precincts are in, though.

Preckwinkle edging out Fioretti.

Only encouragement for Ives is how much of the vote is out downstate.

Pritzker is looking like the winner.

[Mr. Illini]

For those interested in the Cook County results, the Sun Times is also a great resource:

https://elections.suntimes.com/results/

[Mr. Illini]

Those two Biss counties downstate are universities - Champaign (U of I) and Bloomington (ISU)

[Mr. Illini]

BERRIOS HAS CALLED KAEGI TO CONCEDE IN COOK !

[Mr. Illini]

Preckwinkle is up big on Fioretti. My prediction isn't looking good.

[Mr. Illini]

Those two Biss counties downstate are universities - Champaign (U of I) and Bloomington (ISU)

His lead in McLean is pretty small -- I think it's more likely than not that it flips to Pritzker when it's all said and done.

Agreed, both at small %s reporting. Likely campus precincts.