Kurdistan gains independence,
Agreed.
However, to clarify--you are talking about the Iraqi Kurds and Syrian Kurds joining together to create an independent Kurdistan, correct?
Correct. Turkish Kurds will hold out longer, depending how their next year plays out post-coup. But yes, the Kurds seem like a rare island of stability in the region.
OK.
Also, though, how long will Iranian Kurds hold out?
Do both Iraqi Sunni Arabs and Syrian Sunni Arabs actually want to secede from Iraq/Syria, though?I'd imagine they want peace. Syria and Iraq are both at civil war, and the status quo isn't an option for either. Ironically, ISIS has done a decent job holding together its territory and actually governing in Syria/Iraq, and future leaders may learn from their example (but without the bloodshed and fearmongering and all around evil-ness).[/quote]
I wouldn't really call a group that loses control of Palmyra, Tikrit, Ramadi, and Fallujah to be doing a good job of holding together its territory, though.
Frankly, Afghanistan is probably
very unlikely to fall to the Taliban as long as the U.S. keeps over a meager force of 5,000-10,000 troops there.
[/quote]
Then again, there are always tensions along the Durand Line. But if the US continues supporting Afghanistan, and Pakistan grows even more sour toward the West, then all bets are off for the region, especially with India growing each year (possibly representing a future buffer against China's aggression in the region).[/quote]
In regards to the Durand Line, I would think that smart Afghan politicians know that this line can't be changed by force. Plus, do Pakistani Pashtuns actually want to join Afghanistan nowadays?
Also, in regards to Pakistan, I would think that having a stable, neutral Afghanistan would be in Pakistan's best interests. However, there is certainly no guarantee that Pakistan's leadership likewise sees this issue in this light.
[/quote]
All of these points are very highly dependent on who is on top in the region, and where their allegiances lie. I think Iran will become more powerful given its size, and the Iranian Kurds IMO won't break off due to being better off w Iran. As for ISIL, I only meant that they were effective until the west started their (justified) air raids. But any remaining government entity is practically guaranteed for failure, as years of attacks ruin their infrastructure, disenfranchise a citizenry that found its only solace in terrorism, and preclude a decent chance of a future due to lack of environmental protections. The area reached 129° last week and is projected to get hotter (making food production more difficult), making it literally uninhabitable. It will depend how involved the West gets (who could provide the technology that might make it possible to live there). As for Pakistan, you're quite right, and it'll depend on the intelligence and capacity for restraint in future leaders.
