NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Sam Spade]

Thanks cinyc.  For the House, everything turned out quite well with the rankings.  Like the dashboard too.

[Sam Spade]

Now if I could only figure out exactly what was left in St. Louis County.  Do they even know?

[Sam Spade]

Now if I could only figure out exactly what was left in St. Louis County.  Do they even know?

How many precincts in St. Louis County are GOP?  Oberstar has won unless I missed something.

CNN says he's down 2500, with 92% of precincts and 97% from St. Louis (rest of stuff "out" should be good for Cravaack).  But I don't necessarily believe this.

[Sam Spade]

When I looked 45 minutes ago, it was listed as 22% in from St. Louis County, and in fact it was much higher, and now 97%

St. Louis
Updated 11 minutes ago
Oberstar
(Incumbent)
   
47,468
   57%
Cravaack
   
32,968
   40%
97% of precincts reporting

So, after being king of Kentucky for today by nailing Rand Paul's numbers (56-44) and the Dem holds there, if I call Dayton by 1, Walz wins and Oberstar loses, do I get to be king of Minnesota for a day?

[Sam Spade]

So, what the greatest R+x seat held by a Dem for the next Congress?

UT-02 (R+15)
OK-02 (R+14)
KY-06 (R+9)
WV-3 (R+6)
NC-11 (R+6)
PA-4 (R+6)
PA-17 (R+6)

[Sam Spade]

Looking at CA-20, we have 91% in from Fresno, which Costa is winning 63-37, 77% in from Kern, which Costa is winning 60-40 and only absentees from Kings, which Vidak is winning 71-29.

Contrast that with McNerney's places out, which appear to be much more favorable.

[Sam Spade]

All right, what's going on with MN-08?  Who is likely to win at this point?

Depends on what's out from St. Louis and Itasca Counties, but Craavack just might pull it out - something I didn't expect when I looked at the race a half hour ago.

Out:
Aitkin - 13 precincts; 50-44 Craavack
Isanti - 6 precincts; 55-39 Craavack
Itasca - 14 precincts; 48-47 Oberstar
Mille Lacs - 1 precinct; 53-40 Craavack
Pine - 18 precincts; 51-44 Craavack
St. Louis - 5 precincts; 58-40 Oberstar
Wadena - 9 precincts; 54-40 Craavack

Turns out there were less votes in St. Louis than we thought.  This happens, as I discovered in Franken-Coleman, because a lot of Duluth precincts are completely devoid of voters (maybe until they need them), whereas other precincts are packed with voters.

[Sam Spade]

Buck +6,932 (+0.4%) with 73% reporting

But, Denver only 54% reporting and Boulder only 63% reporting.

Buck is behind in all PVI bellwether counties, which is never a good sign.  Ditto Rossi in Washington.  I generally trust the bellwethers.

I tend to agree.

[Sam Spade]

McNerney's ahead by 120 votes in CA-11 with all precincts - probably will be some recount there.

Costa appears like he's going to lose because what's left ain't favorable to him.

[Sam Spade]

Btw, if you're wondering why NY-25 hasn't been called, it's because the areas out should be very friendly to Buerkle.  I doubt it's enough to overcome a 2000-vote lead, but who knows...

[Sam Spade]

Damn@Oberstar. I never saw that coming. Normally I'd take solace in that the seat would likely flip back but who knows what redistricting will do. We've probably lost the chance to redistrict out Bachmann too but if we lose a seat Cravaak likely will be it.

Well on the bright side Hanabusa appears to have won by a solid margin.

I was really surprised that Cravaack pulled 40% in St. Louis.  Should I be?

[Sam Spade]

You also included NH, but whatever...

[Sam Spade]

On Washington, Murray should have the edge, but it is far too early to make predictions without knowing the content of what's out.

In general, Rossi is underperforming slightly his 2004 numbers in the west and overperforming slightly in the east.

[Sam Spade]

Yes, the West did really pull through for us because it's part of our new base. 

The new Democratic firewall. (yea I still include Pennsylvania, sue me)

North Carolina re-elected most of its Dem incumbents.

Unfortunately, the gerrymander presently in effect is going to face some increased scrutiny with the GOP controlling the legislature.

[Sam Spade]

Yes, the West did really pull through for us because it's part of our new base. 

The new Democratic firewall. (yea I still include Pennsylvania, sue me)

North Carolina re-elected most of its Dem incumbents.

Unfortunately, the gerrymander presently in effect is going to face some increased scrutiny with the GOP controlling the legislature.

The Governor is a Dem though right? Does Gov. Perdue have a part in redistricting?

Of course, but NC Dems have always controlled all parts of the redistricting process, which they don't now.  Makes a difference.

As for deals, I could see one for McIntyre - everyone likes him.

[Sam Spade]

So how many times will the Texas GOP's gerrymander go to court?

[Sam Spade]

It looks like the GOP will get 64 seats net, winning IL-08, the Ortiz seat in Texas TX-27 I think (that must be the biggest upset of the night), CA-20, and WA-02.  They have a chance to win 65 seats if they get lucky in CA-11, but that appears less likely than not, unless after those silly 2 or 3 precincts in Santa Clara County which remain out (why haven't they been counted, what is the problem?), and as is likely, Harmer is behind (by 72 projected votes - oh the SOS has all the votes reflected (thanks for bringing that to my attention Lief), and McNeary's margin is 121 votes), he makes it up with the late absentees and military ballots. I suppose that is possible. This one might be up in the air for weeks.

In WA-2, per my spreadsheet projection, Koster has about a 1,700 projected pad when all the projected votes are in, and that will be very tough to make up with late absentees being that heavily more disproportionately Dem vis a vis what came before in each county. In IL-08, of the remaining projected 2,140 votes out, Bean would have to carry that by 69%, as opposed to the 55.5% she has been getting in Cook County so far (which is the only county with votes out). I don't think so.

You can't predict how Washington comes in - I never do.  TX-27 is over unless there's a box in one of those questionable counties to the west which migrates over.

I agree with your analysis otherwise.  I don't know why WA-9, KY-6, AZ-7 or AZ-8 hasn't been called.

NY-25 is not being called because only 60% of Wayne County is in, which Buerkle is winning 62-38 (or 3400 votes about out of 14.5K).  It's unlikely to change, but since there were 25K votes there in 2010, they're being cautious.

EDIT:  Just missed previous post - mine adds on...

[Sam Spade]

The Fitzpatrick margin was the biggest shock.

I told you so, and you should have known more about this than I did.

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Republicans should never have lost that seat in the first place - at the first decent Republican wave, Carney was dead.  I'm more surprised Kanjo finally lost.

[Sam Spade]

I told you so, and you should have known more about this than I did.

Other involved people were stunned.

If a wave was going to hit involving Obama, Bucks County was a quite logical place for it to land, given his base.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah but Carney is personally popular, is a great (though apparently not great enough) campaigner and Marino had some issues. A Marino win wasn't a crazy idea but Marino by ten certainly wasn't a common prediction.
[/quote]

But with that district, none of that really mattered.  As one should expect.

[Sam Spade]

Buerkle now ahead in NY-25....I guess it will come down to absentees
http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2010/11/ann_marie_buerkle_picks_up_vot.html

659 votes is a decent margin at this point.

[Sam Spade]

As far as I can tell, the last races to be called:

AZ-07:  We still have a bunch of absentees and provisionals here, but Grijalva (D) is ahead by 4,000 votes.  Doubt there's any change here.
AZ-08:  Ditto AZ-08, except Giffords (D) is ahead by 2,300 votes.  Doubt any change either.
CA-11:  McNerney (R) leads by 121 votes with all precincts in here.  Nothing will happen for a while here, as you have to wait for late absentees.  Still up in the air IMO.
CA-20:  Vidak (R) is ahead by 1823 votes here.  Much as in CA-11, we wait for late absentees, but I really doubt this changes.
IL-08:  With all precincts in, Walsh (R) leads by 553 votes.  He's declared victory, but Bean (D) is not conceding.  We wait for absentees and provisionals, though 553 votes is a margin that's unlikely to be taken out IMO.
KY-06:  Chandler leads by 600 votes here with all precincts in.  Barr has not conceded and may challenge the result.  He'll probably get a recanvass easily, but Kentucky has no provision for automatic recounts, so he'd have to go to court for one.  I doubt there's any change here.
NY-25:  Waiting on absentees and provisionals - Buerkle (R) is ahead by 659 votes with all precincts reporting.  Generally, in NY, there are very few absentees and provisions and they are rarely much different in number and result from the actual numbers, so this lead is probably enough.
TX-27:  Ortiz (D) has asked for a recount and you've got the watch for the "missing ballot" box suddenly appearing in this part of the world.  Farenthold is ahead by 799 votes and I don't think I've ever seen this margin overturned in a recount.  Missing ballot box, well...
VA-11:  Connolly (D) leads Fimian (R) by 920 votes.  Fimian has not decided to ask for a recount yet, though he'd be entitled to one.  We're not at that point yet, so give it time.
WA-02:  We wait for weeks here.

Presently, the total is 239 R, 186 D

[Sam Spade]

Folks, I've decided to move all discussion of the races left (as well as post-mortem to this thread).

Likely, though I want to talk to Joe about this, we'll combine the other threads with this one.

[Sam Spade]

Murkowski is spelled like it sounds. Much tougher is my name for example, which is spelled Stephen. Do you know how often I see my name spelled Steven, and pronounced Stefan if someone sees my name in print?  This "can they spell" story has been really hyped out of proportion.  Moreover, irrespective of what anyone else does, the courts eventually are going to require that if the intent is clear, the vote will be counted, and will not tolerate gamesmanship. Is there someone with a similar name on the write in list?

There's a Lisa M, as I recall.

[Sam Spade]

Murkowski is spelled like it sounds. Much tougher is my name for example, which is spelled Stephen. Do you know how often I see my name spelled Steven, and pronounced Stefan if someone sees my name in print?  This "can they spell" story has been really hyped out of proportion.  Moreover, irrespective of what anyone else does, the courts eventually are going to require that if the intent is clear, the vote will be counted, and will not tolerate gamesmanship. Is there someone with a similar name on the write in list?

There's a Lisa M, as I recall.

Official write-in list can be found here:

http://www.elections.alaska.gov/ci_pg_cl_2010_genr.php#uss

Most problematic:

Lisa M. Lackey
Daniel C. Piaskowski

[Sam Spade]

The individual threads have been put together and cleaned up a little.

Please continue the discussion.