NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Sam Spade]

Sam Spade, do you have any idea what percentage the Pubbies got of the Hispanic vote in TX-23 and TX-27?  I would love to see a precinct map of TX-23 in Bexar County.

Won't know now.  Not until much later.

With Perry, there wasn't much change from 2008 (35%).  At the lower statewide levels (where the GOP got 60%-64% roughly), it was probably more like 40% (maybe Abbott (64%) got closer to 45%). 

FWIW, the exit poll said Perry got 38% and the movements in Hispanic areas not within counties was minimal from 2008 or between the statewide races.  I'd have to look precinct-by-precinct at the suburban/urban Hispanics.

The big shift was in suburban Texas - other statewide Republicans ran at Bush 2004 levels, whereas Perry ran at 2008 levels.

In rural east and central Texas (Southern-settled areas), everyone ran the same, at all levels of the ballot.  Those numbers were virtually identical to 2008.  In the German rural areas, Perry ran at 2008 levels, the other candidates ran at 2004 levels.

This is a gross generalization, but it's pretty accurate.

[Sam Spade]

It is amazing the GOP does that well with Hispanics in Texas. That deserves some sort of study, as to why. They do as well in Arizona (at least some candidates do), but close to half the Hispanics in AZ are evangelical Protestants.

Before Bush, Texas Hispanics were the most Democratic in the nation.

[Sam Spade]

Anyone else surprised that Ayotte broke 60% and carried every one of NH's counties?  I certainly didn't see that coming.

Almost shocking really. Hodes in the debate I saw was presentable.

NH does those types of wild swings (see 2006).  Actually, with that result, it's more surprising that Lynch didn't lose.

[Sam Spade]

It is amazing the GOP does that well with Hispanics in Texas. That deserves some sort of study, as to why. They do as well in Arizona (at least some candidates do), but close to half the Hispanics in AZ are evangelical Protestants.

Before Bush, Texas Hispanics were the most Democratic in the nation.

That is an interesting thought - that Bush's popularity with Hispanics relatively speaking, had staying power at least in Texas for subsequent GOP candidates.

Do we have any idea what the percentage of voters in TX-23 and TX-27 were Hispanic?  If we knew that, and assuming (I assume a reasonable assumption) that 75% of the Anglo voters in these two CD's voted for the GOP candidate (would you pick another percentage for Anglos?), we could impute the percentage of the GOP take of Hispanic voters this time for each of these two CD's.

75% is a fair call.  Though based on what I've been seeing in other results, it may be closer to 80% (remember that Perry got 69% of whites according to exit poll and Farenthold ran a couple of points better than his percentages - with the further note that a good chunk of the whites who vote Dem live in the major urban areas).

Adults-wise, TX-23 is 30.0% White, 65.1% Hispanic (there's about 3% blacks there).  TX-27 is 27.6% White, 68.1% Hispanic (with 3% blacks also).

[Sam Spade]

Yes, which is where this is going.   

[Sam Spade]

Apparently, Mason Dixon bit the dust in Nevada with its polls because  they were done in by the cell phone and Hispanics don't like to be grilled by gringos in English as to how they will vote, phenomenon.

One would think M-D knows how to handle Hispanics through its many years of Florida polling, but who knows on that front.  But this is now 2 elections in a row and in 2004, there were more minor issues.

The cell phone thingy remains quite unproven - look at the SUSA test polls in California and Oregon.  California was dead-on, but most people missed that landline only callers had the same result as the final numbers (I didn't).  Oregon was a cluster though and completely wrong (made more wrong by the cell phone addition).

Anyway, something happened.  Nevada, though, is a strange state in many respects.

[Sam Spade]

NY-01 isn't over yet:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7970/ny01-altschuler-says-he-has-the-lead-after-recanvass

Ughhhhhhhh

Having read the article, it looks pretty over to me. The ball didn't move much.

Over, meaning that Bishop lost?  Because that's what it looks like.

Leaving NY with a 7 seat loss?  Ouch, especially with such domination by Democrats at the statewide and statewide federal level

     As I said elsewhere, Tuesday mostly wasn't that bad for the Democrats in their stronghold states. Losing so many House seats in New York is quite shocking.

No, it isn't.  Think about why.

[Sam Spade]

7 is fairly surprising imo.  I expected Maffei, McMahon, Bishop, and Murphy to win.

I smelled that Murphy was gone, Arcuri surprised me more b/c he appeared to have regained strength, but that was just a mirage.

As for Bishop, I wondered.  Considering the rest of the Long Island CDs, it was a bit surprising that it didn't fall, and now it probably will.

McMahon was surprising for mentioned earlier - pretty much the only real "surprise" to me Tuesday.  Maffei, I had that one seriously on the radar, as you know (but even IL-8 and TX-27 was on my radar).

The reason why I say that it wasn't surprising is because these are areas that would be real problems in a GOP wave - they have GOP history which is far from being completely dead (yet).

[Sam Spade]

Talking of suspecting that Bishop might be in trouble, can the predictions thread be unlocked so we can all laugh at ourselves?

Go ahead - it's open now

[Sam Spade]

What surprises me about NY-1 & NY-13 is the GOP's success despite incredibly divisive primaries.  Like more than NY-23 divisive but without the Conservative Party split on election day.

Goes to show you how much more important election day splits are, as opposed to primary splits.

[Sam Spade]

What surprises me about NY-1 & NY-13 is the GOP's success despite incredibly divisive primaries.  Like more than NY-23 divisive but without the Conservative Party split on election day.

Goes to show you how much more important election day splits are, as opposed to primary splits.

Yeah...but NY-13 had a meltdown.   Conservative Party pitted against Conservative Party, Hasidic groups in Brooklyn goin' against each other, Conservative Borough President behind the Democrat, crazy Republican from the past emerging to threaten to claim the nomination in a coup.... and it all mattered less than a ballot line where one candidate withdraw and endorsed the major party candidate.

It's not like the Republican who won in NY-23 was a Scozzafava

Staten Island is a weird place.  As you should know.  After all, Michael Grimm did actively seek Sarah Palin's endorsement.

Besides, McMahon came off as a bit of a nut during the campaign.  Voters didn't seem to have much tolerance for nuts this year, as we've noticed.

[Sam Spade]

Personally, I think IL-8 is over barring a miracle/mistake in recount.  Cook County absentee counting is basically over (only 500 absentee ballots have not been returned and there are only about 200 provisionals) whereas Lake and McHenry still have ballots left (Lake has 600 definite absentees and a few hundred provisionals whereas McHenry certainly has some absentees) and Bean is still down 347.

[Sam Spade]

Has anybody see or computed a national popular vote total for all 435 races for the House of Representatives?

Green Papers says 52.2 to 44.6.  My latest tally has 52.1 to 44.7, but there are about 5 uncontested CDs that I'm going to have to work at to get numbers (or simply wait for the official canvass - like in Alabama).

[Sam Spade]

Has anybody see or computed a national popular vote total for all 435 races for the House of Representatives?

Green Papers says 52.2 to 44.6.  My latest tally has 52.1 to 44.7, but there are about 5 uncontested CDs that I'm going to have to work at to get numbers (or simply wait for the official canvass - like in Alabama).

Here is the place for your missing Alabama numbers Sam. Yes, it was hard to find. The trick is to go to wikipedia for the 2010 elections for each state, and explore their links. That is how I found this hidden page at the Alabama SOS site.

Thanks.  Otherwise, I would have just waited for the official canvass, where it will appear.

[Sam Spade]

Is there any other state that you are missing Sam?  I am here for you pal. 

I don't have my Excel sheet in front of me - basically it's only completely uncontested CDs (no third-party, nothing) and two were in Alabama.  I think one is in Florida, but I forget the other two.

[Sam Spade]

Hey, I found y'all another Republican Jew:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dennis_Ross

Has anyone noted yet that Michael Grimm is Jewish (remembering the McMahon staffer rants on the subject...)

[Sam Spade]

What do they also hate strip clubs there or something? Staten Island doesn't strike me as a strip club haven, they are mostly in Manhattan or Brooklyn in NYC from what I understand. Or are you just referring to the whole "being a liberal Democrat" thing?

Do you wear gold chains and have a cousin named Vinnie?

Anyway, I stand corrected on Grimm.

[Sam Spade]

Bean concedes to Walsh.  Not surprised.  Leaves six races left.  Honestly, I think the only race left in the air is NY-1.  We're just biding time on the others.

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/politics/bean-walsh-illinois-8th-district-108557139.html

[Sam Spade]

Bean concedes to Walsh.  Not surprised.  Leaves six races left.  Honestly, I think the only race left in the air is NY-1.  We're just biding time on the others.

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/politics/bean-walsh-illinois-8th-district-108557139.html

Six?

CA-11, CA-20, TX-27, NY-01, NY-25 and...?

Etherridge hasn't conceded in NC-2 and will be getting a recount, though I consider his a "lost cause" at behind by 1500 votes, to put it mildly.  Kinda like the CA districts and honestly, NY-25, where the numbers continue to get worse for Maffei as votes are counte.

[Sam Spade]

For the last week and a half, the only race that's been up in the air is NY-1, as I remarked a few days ago.  The rest is just noise...

I agree with the analysis though - Bishop should win.  And we still have to wait for the California guys and Ortiz to come to their senses.  NY-25 was perhaps a 1 in 100 turnaround but not if only Wayne County absentees are left - that horse is out of the barn.

[Sam Spade]

So Ortiz finally conceded...

http://www.rollcall.com/news/-200857-1.html

[Sam Spade]

So California experienced a wave election and 0 seats changed hands?

Dems actually picked up the governorship and a seat in the state legislature, I believe, but that's pretty much it )) Simply put: California didn't experience a wave election.

Just FYI, in the national races (Senate and House), the swing was roughly 1/2 to 2/3rds (more towards the 1/2 level) of the national swing from 2008 to 2010.  That's not enough to change much based on the prior margins.  Same thing occurred in New England (outside NH, where swings were greater than the national swing)

[Sam Spade]

Why is Barone held in such high regard?

It's because he used to be the best, or at least close to it. Not a David Butler or anything, but someone who turned out solid, respectable analytical work, and that's always been too rare in the U.S. His decline into intellectual dishonesty has been pretty depressing.

I basically agree with both you and Torie.

Of course, intellectual dishonesty is generally looked upon favorably today by so-called intellectual elites today, so it's no wonder that even halfway-decent minds fall for the allure.  Kinda goes along with what are viewed as positive intellectual pursuits as well.

I find it very difficult to stay away from myself - the only solution I've found is by acknowledging my own biases in what I analyze because we all have them.

[Sam Spade]

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