NV-02 special election: 9/13

[Sam Spade]

Perry leading by 12 and Romney by 16 in this district is quite a bit better than McCain who tied it.

President Bush won NV-02 by 16 points.

That's with a pretty sizable enthusiasm gap.

That's not what an enthusiasm gap is.

[Sam Spade]

Perry leading by 12 and Romney by 16 in this district is quite a bit better than McCain who tied it.

President Bush won NV-02 by 16 points.

That's with a pretty sizable enthusiasm gap.

That's not what an enthusiasm gap is.

This poll shows an enthusiasm gap via Marshall being a bad candidate running on conservative themes. You can see that with early voting numbers. Sam, you might think I'm a dumb but I know what an enthusiasm gap is.

With the early voting numbers, you have a point, and a potentially valid one too.  But we need to see actual votes in order to adjudge that read.

However, your post had nothing to do with early voting numbers, it had to do with this poll.  The two are not connected.

PPP's way of adjudging an enthusiasm gap is wrong also, but different.  They look at Obama-McCain ID numbers, and say that if the sample is stronger for McCain, then there is "an enthusiasm gap".  For example, this poll is +4 McCain in 2008, whereas NV-2 was +1 Obama in 2008.  That's wrong in so many ways, but since I generally ignore their analysis, no big deal.

[Sam Spade]

Obviously, we have to wait for same-day voting, but these early voting numbers are not pretty for Dems here.

[Sam Spade]

Romney would present real problems in Nevada because of the Mormon thing.  I would not underestimate that - it's probably worth a couple of percentage points.

[Sam Spade]

Romney would present real problems in Nevada because of the Mormon thing.  I would not underestimate that - it's probably worth a couple of percentage points.

The Mormon thing hasn't hurt Harry Reid in Nevada.  Nevada has a decent sized Mormon population.  Whatever Nevada anti-Mormon vote there is should be offset by the Mormon vote.

Yeah, Sam meant the opposite. Actually Romney's mormonism won't hurt him most anywhere out west. In the south and lower midwest, not so sure. Not that it will cause him to lose but it might be worth a point or two there.

Yes, I meant plus not minus, in Nevada context specifically.  It's always been a plus for Harry too.

[Sam Spade]

Romney would present real problems in Nevada because of the Mormon thing.  I would not underestimate that - it's probably worth a couple of percentage points.

The Mormon thing hasn't hurt Harry Reid in Nevada.  Nevada has a decent sized Mormon population.  Whatever Nevada anti-Mormon vote there is should be offset by the Mormon vote.

Yeah, Sam meant the opposite. Actually Romney's mormonism won't hurt him most anywhere out west. In the south and lower midwest, not so sure. Not that it will cause him to lose but it might be worth a point or two there.

Yes, I meant plus not minus, in Nevada context specifically.  It's always been a plus for Harry too.

I had thought Sam that you had lost your marbles there for a moment, but decided not to say anything as a professional courtesy.

I will admit to the statement being poorly worded, very true.