Sounds good to me, Wakie. What do you guys honestly believe will be the net gain/loss for the Democrats or Republicans in 2006?
Will the Democrats pick up 2 or 3 seats?
Will the Republcians get to 60?
It's too hard to tell right now. If there are no major retirements (or good opposition party candidates for those retirements), my bet will be either +1 Rep. or +1 Dem. or totally even.
Basically, every election (unless it's like 1994 or 2000 afterwards), there's usually only 1 or 2 weak incumbents on each side that can be beaten. Senate is the ultimate incumbent-place with regards to elections.
Here are your weak candidates for either side as I can see right now:
GOP
Rick Santorum - PA
Lincoln Chafee - RI
Some other Rep. candidates might look weak (Jim Talent, George Allen), but keep in mind they're in Rep. leaning states and will be naturally very tough to beat.
Dem.
Bill Nelson - FL (esp. if Jeb runs)
Mark Dayton - MN (MN is a tossup state in my mind at state level, not Presidential level yet)
As with the Reps., some other Dem. candidates might look weak (Maria Cantwell, etc.), but keep in mind they're in Dem. leaning states and will be naturally very tough to beat.
Once we know exactly who's retiring, we should have a better idea altogether. 2004 was killer for the Dems in retirements and the Reps. took great advantage of it; I don't picture the same thing happening again soon.
