Could Congressman Dan Boran have beaten Tom Coburn?

[Sam Spade]

Coburn is hard to beat fundamentally because his old eastern Oklahoma CD (Carson and Boran afterwards) is the most Democrat CD in Oklahoma.

He also has always remained very popular there as well. (which helps)

I doubt anyone could have beaten him in 2004.  Maybe in an off-year, non-incumbent election, it certainly would have been closer, but I think he still would have pulled it out, because of the reason above.

Face facts.  He's going to be in that for as long as he wants to, because he has literally no scandals in his career and his mouth is not the negative in Oklahoma that it might be in other places.

[Sam Spade]

Tom Coburn would have beat either of them and did beat one of them.  I can see Dan Boren challenging him in 2010 or challenging Jim Inhofe in 2008.

He is really respected and well liked in Eastern Oklahoma CD 2 (Tulsa area).  He was a medical doctor before coming into politics, much like Bill Frist.  The only small skeleton in his closet is he allegedly performed an abortion while in practice and then ran against abortion in the Senatorial race vacated by Sen. Don Nickles.

Respectfully, that minor skeleton won't be an issue in 2010.  It was already sort of overplayed by Brad Carson as it was and didn't really help him much, frankly.

[Sam Spade]

No.  If a candidate as good as Carson couldn't win, I'm afraid no one could have.
And I hate to disagree, Sam, but I think that issue would be a major one.  Republicans down south are two-issue Republicans: abortion and gay marriage, as you probably know, and I think anything that implicates a candidate in an abortion scandal would definitely hurt that candidate a lot.

I'm not saying it's not that big of an issue to Oklahomans, ian.  I'm just saying that it won't have much effect on any potential election because it's been brought up before and it'll be familiar to voters.

For example, the fact that Senator Conrad Burns said in 1988 that he would only run for two terms was a very key factor in him almost getting ousted in 2000.  Other things may have an effect on his race in 2006, but that issue will not be an issue then probably, at all.

[Sam Spade]

No. If a candidate as good as Carson couldn't win, I'm afraid no one could have.
And I hate to disagree, Sam, but I think that issue would be a major one. Republicans down south are two-issue Republicans: abortion and gay marriage, as you probably know, and I think anything that implicates a candidate in an abortion scandal would definitely hurt that candidate a lot.

I'm not saying it's not that big of an issue to Oklahomans, ian. I'm just saying that it won't have much effect on any potential election because it's been brought up before and it'll be familiar to voters.

For example, the fact that Senator Conrad Burns said in 1988 that he would only run for two terms was a very key factor in him almost getting ousted in 2000. Other things may have an effect on his race in 2006, but that issue will not be an issue then probably, at all.

One of Tom Coburn's biggest campaign promises is that he would spend maximum two terms in the Senate.  We'll have to wait until 2016 to see if he holds to his promise.

Yep, that's a while in the future, though. 

I will say this, he did hold up his promise of only serving three terms in the House before when he was a member.  Few House members, with the exception of say a Mark Sanford, from the 1994 class held up their end of the bargain on that and I give him credit in that regard.