Arizona 5: Hayworth In Trouble

[Sam Spade]

Interesting that Mitchell is pulling a higher % of Democrats than Hayworth is % of Republicans.  Mitchell is a very credible opponent, though.

Anyway, I have this one at #17 or #18 (I forget) on the Republican side right now.  Sounds about right and I'm keeping it there.

[Sam Spade]

Anyway, I have this one at #17 or #18 (I forget) on the Republican side right now.  Sounds about right and I'm keeping it there.

  Do we ever get to see this mysterious list of yours, Sam?

Frankly, I'm still working on it. 

Mainly because I still haven't made my way through the latest fundraising numbers, which at this point, constitute a fairly important piece of rankings.

I am hoping to have it done within the week and post my sort of master list of all 435 House races in the country in a separate thread.  It's a little project I enjoy. 

Anyway, I have Hayworth ranked as #19 and as Lean R.  I don't think this poll will push him up any, but we'll see.

At present, just for numbers sake, I have 4 Rep. seats as Lean Dem., 8 Rep. seats as Toss-up, 17 Rep. seats as Lean R, 20 Rep. seats as Likely R and 11 Rep. seats I'm watching, but presently consider Safe.

On the Democratic side, I have 2 Dem. seats as Toss-up, 5 Dem. seats as Lean D, 9 Dem. seats as Likely D and 6 Dem. seats I'm watching, but presently consider Safe.

[Sam Spade]

First Cubin, now this. Bush's drag down effect is going to be big. I hope we get a poll from MN-1. Gutknecht's typically thought of as safe, but he could go down in the right conditions. And we have a better candidate than previous years, Tim Walz, Iraq War veteran who has outraised him one quarter already.

Bunch of other House seats I want to see as well. And I wonder where mine is on Sam's list.

Gutknecht is at #43 right now, a seat that is in consideration, but is placed in the Likely R category.  It is true that Walz outraised him one quarter, but the fundraising numbers still show roughly a 3-1 edge for Gutknecht in terms of money, which is a sizable advantage.  I presume that if the race is truly close, funds will be pumped in for the effort anyways.

Also, the strength of incumbency helps and it is always hard to predict in the House which incumbents in marginal CDs will be affected by bad years for their party and not.

A plus for Walz is the fact that this is a marginal CD.  Bush only received 51.06% here in 2004.

I cannot place the strength of the challenger until I see him live on TV.  So, as for now, the race is second-tier.