My current prediction:
VA, NH -> Lean DEM
CO, MN, NM -> Tossup
ME, OR, NE, KY, NC -> Safe GOP right now
AK, LA, NJ, SD -> 
Your analysis is reasonable.
In my own list, I am getting very close (in fact I may do it next time) to putting Maine and Oregon in Likely R. I simply don't like what I see there for Democrats in numerous ways.
Nebraska is, at best, Likely R for Dems, even if they get Fahey or Kleeb. Dole doesn't have an opponent worth mentioning, and McConnell is, I still think, in a strong position for a Prez election year.
If I had to bet money, I'd predict than none of these races are really on the radar come next October.
The LA Republicans will get a strong candidate for the race (probably Kennedy), so that'll be up there before long, but I agree with your other question marks as being the big question marks of this cycle (for now).
Other than that, MN should be lean R, but other than that we agree...
