Democratic pickup in MS-01

[Sam Spade]

The good thing about this district for Childers is that it is one of those historically southern Democratic districts that he would probably be able to hold onto for quite awile if he won.  Its a lot like AL-05. 

Until DeSoto outgrows the rural areas.  This result is useless without knowing where the votes are coming from anyways.

[Sam Spade]

The good thing about this district for Childers is that it is one of those historically southern Democratic districts that he would probably be able to hold onto for quite awile if he won.  Its a lot like AL-05. 

Until DeSoto outgrows the rural areas.  This result is useless without knowing where the votes are coming from anyways.

That is true.  If he is around in 2012, we will likely see much of DeSoto shifted into the overwhelmingly Democratic MS-02. 

Excuse me for not knowing, but is MS going to lose a CD next time around.  Otherwise, there will be VRA problems.  If so, then that's probably ok.

[Sam Spade]

Currently 53-42 with 115/462 precincts repoting.

DeSoto has 9/38 reporting and Davis is winning it with 81%

Thanks.  Where are these numbers in specifics?

[Sam Spade]

The good thing about this district for Childers is that it is one of those historically southern Democratic districts that he would probably be able to hold onto for quite awile if he won.  Its a lot like AL-05. 

Until DeSoto outgrows the rural areas.  This result is useless without knowing where the votes are coming from anyways.

That is true.  If he is around in 2012, we will likely see much of DeSoto shifted into the overwhelmingly Democratic MS-02. 

Excuse me for not knowing, but is MS going to lose a CD next time around.  Otherwise, there will be VRA problems.  If so, then that's probably ok.

MS-02 is already like 62% black and it needs to gain population.  If it took some of DeSoto it would probably still be around 53%-55% black, which would be fine under the VRA.

Thompson won't be very happy with that.

[Sam Spade]

This is a race with regional voting...

[Sam Spade]

Chalmers will have the lead, but I can't see him avoiding the runoff.

[Sam Spade]

Wow, so Childers won those hardcore racist strongly for Hillary counties while the Republican won some Obama counties. Weird.

And do you know why?

[Sam Spade]

Look, everyone is probably right here in some way or form.  There's always more than one explanation for a problem.  If I had more time, I'd go into the details.

[Sam Spade]

This is where the action should be, primarily because the regional division here should be close to equivalent. (if that makes any sense - it's a poor sentence)

[Sam Spade]

This is where the action should be, primarily because the regional division here should be close to equivalent. (if that makes any sense - it's a poor sentence)

So this is more of a regional (an oversimplification: the GOP exurbs such as DeSoto County vs. the more populist rural areas) than a partisan struggle?

Well, its kinda what I was trying to get at earlier, when I was being vague.  One can say that it's bad candidates that are causing these losses for the GOP.  One can also say that its the national party's horrible shape and image that is causing losses for the GOP.

But in a sense, the two are tied together.  In other words, if the national party's shape was better, you would get better candidates than Oberweis or Jenkins (two examples of bad candidates), who would not lose.  OR, the national party wouldn't be weak enough to drag down Oberweis or Jenkins, who would likely win in better environments (even though they're sub-par candidates).  But the combination of the two brings losses.

MS-01 is an example of different, but related factors at work.  I get no hint from what I've seen that Davis is a sub-par candidate.  But the national party's poor shape is causing the rural areas (historically Democrat) to revert back to form when faced with a candidate who is from a different region.  So, one could say that a poor regional candidate may cause this loss for the GOP.  And one could say the national party is involved in the possible loss.  But the two are interrelated.

I also fundamentally suspect that if the Hillary/Obama primary had not driven so many voters to play in the Democratic primary, McCullough would have beaten Davis in the primary runoff and thus be the candidate here because once you vote in one primary, you can't change over to the other primary for the runoff.  That's a factor no one is considering here, but is what I suspect may be the tipping point if it does occur.

[Sam Spade]

The key numbers to examine, and I will pull them up if I have time (or someone else does) are the numbers from the election two weeks ago.

Once a county gets to 100%, we should have an idea where the race is going.

[Sam Spade]

Turnout in the first primary was considerably lower than in special elections held elsewhere this year and last, too. If the ceiling is raised considerably, that reshuffles the deck from the 49%-46% result we saw earlier.

Oh, you're quite right.  But even increases in turnout can be re-measured to get a decent result.  We just need a good a county or two from either side.  It won't be perfect, but it'll be useful.

[Sam Spade]

The key numbers to examine, and I will pull them up if I have time (or someone else does) are the numbers from the election two weeks ago.

Once a county gets to 100%, we should have an idea where the race is going.

I'd wait til we have at least one western, "black belt whites", and one eastern, hillbillies county before I'd make any sort of deduction. Plus at least a notion of what's happening in De Soto.

Agreed.

[Sam Spade]

Link to certified results from first election...

http://www.sos.state.ms.us/elections/2008/First%20Congressional%20Special%20Election/First%20Congressional%20Special%20Election.asp

[Sam Spade]

I just want to calm everyone down.  Everything I've heard says Childers leads by 5 points in both sets of internals.

Uh, I think you're the only one who's nervous.  If I only cared.

I really have no clue what to think of the race (i.e. who is going to win), but normally candidates up by 5 points don't drop fliers claiming that the opponent is going to put a statue of Nathan Bedford Forrest in the middle of the town square.  Maybe Mississippi is different, but that's JMO.

We'll see. 

[Sam Spade]

http://www.djournal.com/pages/election2008.asp

http://www.cdispatch.com/election/

Can't seem to find one with county listings for now.

No use going to MS SOS office - they're a joke.

[Sam Spade]

I'm 99.9% sure its 7 PM CDT, 8 PM EDT

[Sam Spade]

The first results are in! From a precinct in Winston County: Childers 6, Davis 4.

Link please?

[Sam Spade]

Rechecking...

Only one precinct of Winston is in CD-01.  The result on 4/22 was Childers 4, Davis 0.  Too early to say anything, obviously.

[Sam Spade]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2008/by_county/MS_Page_0513.html?SITE=MSJADELN&SECTION=POLITICS

Better county-wide results:

So far, 17/462 precincts in

Childers 57
Davis 43

Most of the precincts (I suspect) are Childers-friendly (at least the counties were last time).  Nothing from DeSoto.

[Sam Spade]

So far, Davis is running ahead of his April numbers in all three reporting counties.

Ya, but you can't read anything into it until the county is all in.  Winston is too small to read anything, imho.

[Sam Spade]

A few more precincts (39 of 462), Childers up to 60-40.  Nothing from the black belt or DeSoto yet.

[Sam Spade]

I may be able to say something decently soon.

[Sam Spade]

Childers is up to 59% in Lee

It's now back down to 55% with 8 precincts left.  Lee, of course, is Tupelo, hometown of Elvis Presley... 

[Sam Spade]

Now down to 55-45, but 7 of the 38 DeSoto precincts are in.