Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

Rasmussen's one state poll release today is going to look interesting in comparison...

[Sam Spade]

Its probably damn close, although why he puts it down to two decimal places is strange. Anyway, unless you get the exact figures, any mathmatical attempt to deduce the daily figures won't be 100%. At least these ones look about right.

Well, regardless of what the actual numbers are, the simple fact I can tell you, with some certainty, is that:

Saturday:  Better than the three-day average for Obama
Sunday:  Better than the three-day average for McCain
Monday:  Better than the three-day average for Obama

[Sam Spade]

This sample was exceptionally good for Obama, even better than the one that replaced it - based on my math Obama +10 or so.

[Sam Spade]

This sample was exceptionally good for Obama, even better than the one that replaced it - based on my math Obama +10 or so.

huh?  there was no change to the 6% Obama lead, so doesn't that mean it has to be within +/- 1.5% of the one that dropped off?

Internally, Obama gained.  I'll post the number later.

I'm basing my educated guess off of the internals of the one-day sample used to test the economy and national security question, both of whose internals allowed me to isolate the sample quite nicely this time.  Somewhere around 53-43 is my number.

[Sam Spade]

Obama - 51.17% (50.85%)
McCain - 44.72% (44.89%)

[Sam Spade]

Rasmussen state polling will be...

MS
McCain 52%
Obama 44%

TX
McCain 52%
Obama 43%

TN
McCain 58%
Obama 39%

[Sam Spade]

Actual:
                                           samp goes tom   samp went today
Obama 51.22% (51.17% / 50.85%      /        50.44%                  /   50.43%)

McCain 44.39% (44.72% / 44.89%      /        45.05%                  /    44.35%)

[Sam Spade]

Actual:
                                           samp goes tom   samp went today
Obama 51.22% (51.17% / 50.85%      /        50.44%                  /   50.43%)

McCain 44.39% (44.72% / 44.89%      /        45.05%                  /    44.35%)

i can't understand what this is saying ( other than Obama has a big lead)

The first number is today's unrounded three-day number, the second number was yesterday's unrounded three-day number, and so on and so forth...

When I say sample went today, I mean that that day's sample that produced that three-day sample falls off.  The sample that fell off today was fairly McCain (in comparison to the two that came after it).

[Sam Spade]

Rasmussen changed his party ID weighting today to more favor the Republicans.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No he didn't stupid.  He's just telling you that those are the partisan results for September, NOT the new partisan weighting.  That changes every week.

[Sam Spade]

Actual:
                                           samp goes tom   samp went today
Obama 51.06% (51.22%/   51.17% /             50.85%      /        50.44%)

McCain 44.36% (44.39%/   44.72% /             44.89%      /        45.05%)

[Sam Spade]

Sam,

Are you saying that you think the sample from last night individually was 50.85% to 44.89%?

Actual:
                                           samp goes tom   samp went today
Obama 51.06% (51.22%/   51.17% /             50.85%      /        50.44%)

McCain 44.36% (44.39%/   44.72% /             44.89%      /        45.05%)

These are not individual samples.  Rather, these are the three-day averages.  When I say "same went today", that means that the one-day sample which formed the first day of that three-day average fell off today.

[Sam Spade]

Actual:
                                           samp goes tom   samp went today
Obama 51.15% (51.06% /  51.22%/              51.17% /              50.85%)

McCain 44.52% (44.36% /  44.39%/              44.72% /              44.89%)

[Sam Spade]

Sorry, wasn't trying to imply that today's numbers indicate anything, but rather support the assertion that there may be movement over the next few days of a small number of McCain leading undecided voters coming home.

There has been a little statistical movement over the past three to four days of voters from Obama Likely to Obama Lean and from McCain Lean to McCain Likely, but it really isn't more than 0.5% and thus may just be noise, considering that it cancels out movement that was made in the three to four days prior to Wednesday.

[Sam Spade]

The world will not come to an end if Obama is elected President, geez.

I'm more worried about continued deflation of the credit bubble and what it naturally leads to (currency deflation and economic collapse).  Which in turn, historically, has always led to war.

[Sam Spade]

The world will not come to an end if Obama is elected President, geez.

I'm more worried about continued deflation of the credit bubble and what it naturally leads to (currency deflation and economic collapse).  Which in turn, historically, has always led to war.

I didn't say the world would end. I said the economy will collapse.

The economy may collapse anyway.  The government can, in reality, do very little (most of the time). 

Wall Street will likely fall further if and when Obama gets elected.  That much I can tell you.  I wouldn't even think of buying stocks until the market hits 8000, at minimum, right now.

[Sam Spade]

The DOW is now below 10,000, the economy IS already collapsing.

If you think the DOW below 10,000 is the economy collapsing, that's a pretty naive view.  I suspect it's only just the beginning. 10,000 may look nice fairly soon.

[Sam Spade]

Time to start looking to 2012. Who's up? Palin? Romney? Huck?

With those names, you should start looking to 2016

Believe me, if the economy doesn't improve in the next 4 years, Obama will be out in a heartbeat. Anyone will be able to beat him.

I don't believe you. They will blame it on Bush

That train only goes so far.  If, in 4 years, the economy is worse or hasn't improved, Obama can only win if he restores, in some sense, confidence in government to handle the problems.

[Sam Spade]

Actual:

				samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	51.15%	(51.06%	51.22%	51.17%	50.85%)
McCain	44.52%	(44.36%	44.39%	44.72%	44.89%)

I haven't updated this for a few days, but I should...

Clearly, a strong McCain sample entered today in comparison to the previous numbers.  Determining whether it is an outlier or a trend will take a few days to sort out.

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.87%	(52.07%	52.14%	51.46%	51.15%)
McCain	44.64%	(43.51%	43.92%	44.24%	44.52%)

[Sam Spade]

Actual:

				samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	51.15%	(51.06%	51.22%	51.17%	50.85%)
McCain	44.52%	(44.36%	44.39%	44.72%	44.89%)

I haven't updated this for a few days, but I should...

Clearly, a strong McCain sample entered today in comparison to the previous numbers.  Determining whether it is an outlier or a trend will take a few days to sort out.

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.87%	(52.07%	52.14%	51.46%	51.15%)
McCain	44.64%	(43.51%	43.92%	44.24%	44.52%)

Can we have a poll to see how many people actually understand what Sam's on about with these figures?

K - they are just the three-day *unrounded* averages provided by Rasmussen for each of the last five days.

[Sam Spade]

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.48%	(50.87%	52.07%	52.14%	51.46%)
McCain	45.00%	(44.64%	43.51%	43.92%	44.24%)

[Sam Spade]

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.48%	(50.87%	52.07%	52.14%	51.46%)
McCain	45.00%	(44.64%	43.51%	43.92%	44.24%)

Sam - can you please explain which of the numbers is which:

1) 50.48%-45.00%  (3-Day Average?)
2) 50.87%-44.64%  (Wednesday sample?)
3) 52.07%-43.51% (Sunday sample?)
4) 52.14%-43.92%  (Monday sample?)
5) 51.46%-44.24%   (Tuesday sample?)

Current 3-day average, previous 3-day average, etc. There are no single-day samples in that at all.

Correct.

[Sam Spade]

Friday, October 10, 2008
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

[Sam Spade]

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.50%	(50.48%	50.87%	52.07%	52.14%)
McCain	45.44%	(45.00%	44.64%	43.51%	43.92%)

Note:  The 50.50% actually rounds down, as it is 50.496.

[Sam Spade]

Ya, that's kind of the idea.  Truthfully, I expect a McCain bloodbath in the tracking polls today after the events of yesterday.  The only one that might not show it is a *real* weighted one, like Rasmussen.

Of course, the sample that drops off tomorrow is more pro-McCain than the samples that went on the past two days, so who knows.  However, the samples of the past two days have been more McCain favorable than the two that dropped off previously.

[Sam Spade]

Looks like Sam Spade's hunch was correct.

It's not a hunch.  I can pretty much reasonably deduct the internals of the one-day samples by examining the internals of the other one-day questions he separately releases.