Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain] (user search)
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Author Topic: Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]  (Read 503392 times)
Sam Spade
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« Reply #175 on: October 20, 2008, 04:53:43 PM »
Quote from: © Not You, Tom on October 20, 2008, 03:59:12 PM
Quote from: Reds4 on October 20, 2008, 03:47:44 PM
Sam and any other rasmussen premium members,

Does rasmussen release these five polls any before 6 pm to premium members?

I think he has said in the past that he only gets the FOXNews-commissioned poll results a handful of minutes before everyone else does.

Yep.  Not posted yet.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #176 on: October 21, 2008, 09:27:13 AM »
Yesterday was a fairly strong day for Obama, all told.  I'll put the number up soon.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #177 on: October 21, 2008, 09:49:44 AM »
« Edited: October 21, 2008, 10:53:58 AM by Sam Spade »
Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 50%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

samp goes tomsamp went today
Obama50.19%(49.55%50.73%
50.25%
50.34%)
McCain45.64%(45.80%44.63%
45.46%
45.89%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

TuesdayMondaySundaySaturdayFriday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Certain44.2241.0943.4140.6545.4039.4943.7039.6042.8540.23
Likely4.823.214.883.614.403.464.933.815.313.60
Lean1.151.351.171.540.931.681.621.992.182.06

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

TuesdayMondaySundaySaturdayFriday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Democratic85.4910.8386.4210.5686.4410.4686.3411.2385.9411.56
Republican11.7187.2111.3487.1512.3886.6811.4786.3410.9187.47
Independent46.5845.2343.9345.5247.2242.1547.4742.8848.3343.99
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #178 on: October 21, 2008, 11:21:53 AM »
Quote from: Reds4 on October 21, 2008, 11:11:44 AM
Sam,

Looks like Obama had a pretty good night.. but the independents were closer than on many other nights so probably not a huge Obama win I would think?

My guess as to the dailies (through other internals) is this:

Last night: Obama +7.5%
2nd night: Obama +2%
3rd night: Obama +4%

Most of the movement last evening, however, occurred because Obama had a strong night in comparison to the previous two nights in terms of his own numbers.  McCain's numbers weren't really very different from the sample it replaced.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #179 on: October 22, 2008, 09:18:37 AM »
« Edited: October 22, 2008, 09:20:30 AM by Sam Spade »
Not as much movement as there appears to be. 

The sample that went off must have been a bit worse for Obama than I thought because the internals of another question asked yesterday make it abundantly clear that Obama's number yesterday couldn't be higher than 50.20%, so long as no undecideds went for him on that question.

This internal also makes clear that McCain's one-day sample couldn't have been higher than 47%.  Given the actual movement in the poll, however, I hesitate to put McCain's sample much below 45%, not below that.  Getting to that 5% margin would also require at least half of the undecideds to break McCain's way on an economy question and none to break towards Obama (or 3/4 to 1/4, but that would lower the overall numbers)

I'm going to change my daily guesses to be:
Last night: Obama +4-5 (leaning more towards 4)
Night before: Obama +8-9 (leaning more towards 9)
Night before that: Obama +2

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 51%
McCain 45%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

samp goes tomsamp went today
Obama50.53%(50.19%
49.55%
50.73%
50.25%)
McCain45.47%(45.64%
45.80%
44.63%
45.46%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

WednesdayTuesdayMondaySundaySaturday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Certain44.2740.9844.2241.0943.4140.6545.4039.4943.7039.60
Likely5.163.154.823.214.883.614.403.464.933.81
Lean1.101.341.151.351.171.540.931.681.621.99

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

WednesdayTuesdayMondaySundaySaturday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Democratic86.0111.0885.4910.8386.4210.5686.4410.4686.3411.23
Republican11.9086.2611.7187.2111.3487.1512.3886.6811.4786.34
Independent47.0745.1146.5845.2343.9345.5247.2242.1547.4742.88
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #180 on: October 23, 2008, 08:57:09 AM »
Numbers-wise, a good McCain sample dropping off and an excellent day for Obama.  According to my math, probably somewhere between Obama +7 or +8.  Particularly good day among Indys for Obama, fwiw.

I'll play John Zogby for a moment and say that I think the race may have broken out.  Of course, it's Zogby.

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 52%
McCain 45%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

samp goes tomsamp went today
Obama51.66%(50.53%
50.19%
49.55%
50.73%)
McCain44.83%(45.47%
45.64%
45.80%
44.63%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

ThursdayWednesdayTuesdayMondaySunday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Certain46.1741.1944.2740.9844.2241.0943.4140.6545.4039.49
Likely4.552.475.163.154.823.214.883.614.403.46
Lean0.941.171.101.341.151.351.171.540.931.68

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

ThursdayWednesdayTuesdayMondaySunday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Democratic86.2710.9086.0111.0885.4910.8386.4210.5686.4410.46
Republican11.8586.5311.9086.2611.7187.2111.3487.1512.3886.68
Independent50.5143.0147.0745.1146.5845.2343.9345.5247.2242.15
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #181 on: October 23, 2008, 01:38:58 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on October 23, 2008, 01:37:52 PM
Rowan, do you already know what numbers Rasmussen will show for GA, MN and LA ?

State polling update usually occurs around 3 PM.  I'd be happy to play my game again, but Rowan may post it anyways...
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #182 on: October 23, 2008, 01:42:16 PM »
Quote from: Alcon on October 23, 2008, 01:39:36 PM
Polling games give me creepy S&M vibes

Out with the polls!!!

You're in Seattle (or the suburbs, yes).  Surprised you don't like it.  Tongue
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #183 on: October 23, 2008, 02:08:00 PM »

Check your PM.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #184 on: October 24, 2008, 09:10:50 AM »
Another excellent sample for Obama to replace the strong one that fell off.  If another sample such as this jumps on tomorrow, Obama's lead could jump by a point, maybe two.

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 52%
McCain 45%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

samp goes tomsamp went today
Obama51.80%(51.66%50.53%
50.19%
49.55%)
McCain44.80%(44.83%45.47%
45.64%
45.80%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

FridayThursdayWednesdayTuesdayMonday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Certain46.5040.6246.1741.1944.2740.9844.2241.0943.4140.65
Likely4.312.844.552.475.163.154.823.214.883.61
Lean0.991.340.941.171.101.341.151.351.171.54

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

FridayThursdayWednesdayTuesdayMonday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Democratic87.7610.0986.2710.9086.0111.0885.4910.8386.4210.56
Republican12.3985.7211.8586.5311.9086.2611.7187.2111.3487.15
Independent48.7444.5550.5143.0147.0745.1146.5845.2343.9345.52
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #185 on: October 25, 2008, 09:16:59 AM »
I see nothing which would stop me from concluding that this was around another Obama +8 day or so.

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 52%
McCain 44%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

samp goes tomsamp went today
Obama52.32%(51.80%51.66%50.53%
50.19%)
McCain44.43%(44.80%44.83%45.47%
45.64%

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

SaturdayFridayThursdayWednesdayTuesday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Certain47.7639.9346.5040.6246.1741.1944.2740.9844.2241.09
Likely3.392.804.312.844.552.475.163.154.823.21
Lean1.171.700.991.340.941.171.101.341.151.35

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

SaturdayFridayThursdayWednesdayTuesday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Democratic88.339.6587.7610.0986.2710.9086.0111.0885.4910.83
Republican12.6285.5512.3985.7211.8586.5311.9086.2611.7187.21
Independent49.5244.0148.7444.5550.5143.0147.0745.1146.5845.23
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #186 on: October 25, 2008, 09:21:50 AM »
Quote from: Wall St. Wiz on October 25, 2008, 09:14:39 AM
Rassy's recent state polls in NH, FL, OH, and NC indicate a closer race then Obama +8.  His state numbers don't seem to jive with his national numbers.  Unfortunately I would put more faith in his national numbers.

Actually, I would tend to do the opposite.  Of course, maybe there is the "lag".  Whatever, anyway the state polls have been quite bumpy this week.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #187 on: October 25, 2008, 09:52:45 AM »
Quote from: Kalimantan on October 25, 2008, 09:49:18 AM
Quote from: Sam Spade on October 25, 2008, 09:16:59 AM
I see nothing which would stop me from concluding that this was around another Obama +8 day or so.

So as he's leading by 8, then thats three +8 days in a row?

Ya, something around that.  There may a point or two variation one way or another (today is definitely not more than +8), and today's one-day samples don't provide a good answer as to the exact number, but ya, exactly.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #188 on: October 26, 2008, 05:24:25 PM »
Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 52%
McCain 44%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

samp goes tomsamp went today
Obama52.46(52.32%51.80%51.66%50.53%)
McCain44.00(44.43%44.80%44.83%45.47%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

SundaySaturdayFridayThursdayWednesday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Certain48.3439.1647.7639.9346.5040.6246.1741.1944.2740.98
Likely3.272.813.392.804.312.844.552.475.163.15
Lean0.952.041.171.700.991.340.941.171.101.34

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

SaturdayFridayThursdayWednesdayTuesday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Democratic89.648.4488.339.6587.7610.0986.2710.9086.0111.08
Republican12.2385.6912.6285.5512.3985.7211.8586.5311.9086.26
Independent48.5944.4649.5244.0148.7444.5550.5143.0147.0745.11
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #189 on: October 27, 2008, 09:25:50 AM »
Obviously, a massive McCain sample jumped on.  My initial estimate based on other internals has McCain winning the night by around 1-2 points.  As for whether this means anything, well you know...

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

samp goes tomsamp went today
Obama50.58(52.4652.32%51.80%51.66%)
McCain45.96(44.0044.43%44.80%44.83%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

MondaySundaySaturdayFridayThursday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Certain46.3041.0448.3439.1647.7639.9346.5040.6246.1741.19
Likely3.322.563.272.813.392.804.312.844.552.47
Lean0.962.360.952.041.171.700.991.340.941.17

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

MondaySundaySaturdayFridayThursday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Democratic88.1010.1589.648.4488.339.6587.7610.0986.2710.90
Republican10.8586.7712.2385.6912.6285.5512.3985.7211.8586.53
Independent46.4846.5848.5944.4649.5244.0148.7444.5550.5143.01
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #190 on: October 28, 2008, 10:04:05 AM »
Initial estimate - Obama 7-8 on last night's sample.  Most of the movement had to do with an excellent Independent sample coming on, as far as I can tell.

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

samp goes tomsamp went today
Obama50.89(50.5852.4652.32%51.80%
McCain46.01(45.9644.0044.43%44.80%

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

TuesdayMondaySundaySaturdayFridayThursday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Certain46.3641.6046.3041.0448.3439.1647.7639.9346.5040.62
Likely3.682.283.322.563.272.813.392.804.312.84
Lean0.862.140.962.360.952.041.171.700.991.34

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

TuesdayMondaySundaySaturdayFriday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Democratic87.7010.6588.1010.1589.648.4488.339.6587.7610.09
Republican10.3387.3010.8586.7712.2385.6912.6285.5512.3985.7211.8586.53
Independent49.9044.2046.4846.5848.5944.4649.5244.0148.7444.55
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #191 on: October 29, 2008, 09:50:44 AM »
This sample looks like Obama +3 (roughly).  Last two days before this were Obama +7.5 (yesterday) and McCain +1.5 (two days before).

The internals kind of show this, but an exceptional Obama sample among Democrats dropped off last evening, and that's where a good bit of the movement was.

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 50%
McCain 47%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

samp goes tomsamp went today
Obama50.24(50.8950.5852.4652.32%)
McCain47.07(46.0145.9644.0044.43%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

WednesdayTuesdayMondaySundaySaturday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Certain45.5342.7646.3641.6046.3041.0448.3439.1647.7639.93
Likely3.652.293.682.283.322.563.272.813.392.80
Lean1.052.030.862.140.962.360.952.041.171.70

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

WednesdayTuesdayMondaySundaySaturday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Democratic85.4212.9287.7010.6588.1010.1589.648.4488.339.65
Republican10.6487.4510.3387.3010.8586.7712.2385.6912.6285.55
Independent50.3844.5949.9044.2046.4846.5848.5944.4649.5244.01
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #192 on: October 29, 2008, 10:10:28 AM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 29, 2008, 10:03:54 AM
The trackers just don't seem to agree with the other national polls, as well as the state polls. Hmm.

Which other national polls?  Pew - it's internal sample sucked badly, imho.

State polls?  Tougher question to answer, unless you believe in the lag theory.  I might observe that IMO the electorate has been bumping around so much since the economic crisis, poll results have been quite jagged as a result.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #193 on: October 30, 2008, 09:18:01 AM »
« Edited: October 30, 2008, 10:27:51 AM by John Zogby »
I have no internals today which tell me the breakdown of this one-day sample, but if my previous calculations are right, this sample would roughly fall along the lines of Obama +3.  Previously, I had calculated yesterday at also Obama +3.  The day before that was Obama +7.5

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

samp goes tomsamp went today
Obama50.88(50.24
50.89
50.58
52.46
McCain46.21(47.07
46.01
45.96
44.00)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

ThursdayWednesdayTuesdayMondaySunday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Certain46.9742.0345.5342.7646.3641.6046.3041.0448.3439.16
Likely2.602.683.652.293.682.283.322.563.272.81
Lean1.311.501.052.030.862.140.962.360.952.04

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

ThursdayWednesdayTuesdayMondaySunday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Democratic86.2912.2085.4212.9287.7010.6588.1010.1589.648.44
Republican11.7786.4410.6487.4510.3387.3010.8586.7712.2385.69
Independent49.8344.0650.3844.5949.9044.2046.4846.5848.5944.46
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #194 on: October 30, 2008, 10:31:30 AM »
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 30, 2008, 10:23:40 AM
I don't think RAS is using the weights that he claims to be using...

Just did the math and you're right.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #195 on: October 30, 2008, 10:49:20 AM »
Quote from: RowanBrandon on October 30, 2008, 10:37:20 AM
Applying the D +7.2 weights that he claims to use, the topline number would be:
Obama 51.93%
McCain 45.22%

There are two possible responses, Rowan (I PMed it to you, but it deserves to be posted publicly:

1) He's seeing some sharp shift these past few days or week in partisan ID in his D/R/I sample he conducts separately for his weightings that he wants to correct for. (for fear of a 2000 result when he had way too many Republicans).  The weighting is being pulled back to about D+4 to D+5%, according to my math.

It's still not good that he's not being honest about this, but it's better than the 2nd answer.

2) He's pulling a Zogby (who's been known to do this before).  That means, he's changing the weighting or the numbers to get the results he wants to see.  In fact, I have to be quite honest that Zogby is probably doing it right now (since I am him Tongue)
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #196 on: October 30, 2008, 11:13:23 AM »
Quote from: Reds4 on October 30, 2008, 11:10:04 AM
Interesting that you two note that.. I was just thinking that this morning in fact. Rassy's numbers don't seem to add up... weird... I hope there is a jump in GOP, but I doubt it... strange stuff

Well, it could be, he just can't add. (option #3).  Smiley

But one of the top two options has to be correct.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #197 on: October 31, 2008, 09:17:33 AM »
I did the table, but it got lost (ugh!)  So you're going to have to wait until later.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #198 on: November 02, 2008, 10:55:09 AM »
Sorry I missed doing this yesterday.

I have no internals today which tell me the breakdown of this one-day sample, but the Halloween sample was a strong one for Obama.  If the numbers were the same as the one that fell off that I guessed at before (October 30 fell off today), then Obama +3.

The 46.50% for McCain today rounds down because it is 46.49986...

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 51%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

samp goes tomsamp went today
Obama51.42(51.25
50.86
50.88
50.24)
McCain46.50(46.47
46.89
46.21
47.07)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

SundaySaturdayFridayThursdayWednesday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Certain47.2442.7847.4942.6147.2942.7646.9742.0345.5342.76
Likely2.772.402.362.492.262.722.602.683.652.29
Lean1.411.321.401.171.301.401.311.501.052.03

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

SundaySaturdayFridayThursdayWednesday
ObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCainObamaMcCain
Democratic87.6710.8589.209.3188.0110.9886.2912.2085.4212.92
Republican11.2288.1511.4188.0712.3986.8411.7786.4410.6487.45
Independent48.9846.6845.3549.2844.4249.9249.8344.0650.3844.59
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #199 on: November 02, 2008, 11:24:41 AM »
Rowan - This is probably the reason why Rasmussen's playing around with the weighting, though he should tell us why:

Targets (this week)
Dem 39.9% (-0.1%)
Rep 33.4% (+0.6%)
Ind 26.7% (-0.5%)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_partisan_weighting_targets_39_9_democrat_33_4_republican
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