Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Sam Spade]

I don't think the last two are correct on that, IMHO, and I think last night was slightly more pro-McCain, but who knows.  Are they just guessing?

[Sam Spade]

I don't think the last two are correct on that, IMHO, and I think last night was slightly more pro-McCain, but who knows.  Are they just guessing?

Mathematical formula.  It's right, save for rounding.

Ok.  So, considering there probably will be some bounce occurring, the likely answer is slight uptick for Obama tomorrow (unless McCain leads in tomorrow's numbers - which is possible) and then Sunday should bring the strong downtick.

Gallup will probably go closer towards even the next couple of days, depending on the weekend bias.

My gut says right around even in Rasmussen by Monday, and given the slight weekend bias in Gallup, slight Obama lead there (+2 maybe).

If McCain is leading in both polls by Monday/Tuesday, then I think it's fair to reduce the odds down to 55-45 Obama.  If he's tied or slightly behind within MOE, 60-40 Obama.  More than that - I'll stay at least 2-1, maybe worse.

These predictions are, of course, subject to actual polling. 

[Sam Spade]

Saturday - September 6, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, +1)
McCain: 45% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-1, +1)
McCain: 58% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Considering that, according to the chart above, a McCain +2 sample fell off, it's likely that today's sample was (roughly) Obama +1.  Also, depending on how big the difference between leaners and non-leaners was in the Wednesday sample, you could potentially see a weird result tomorrow (depending of course on the results) where McCain leads without leaners and Obama leads with them when the Obama +6 sample drops.

[Sam Spade]

Saturday - September 6, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 46% / 49%, including leaners (nc, +1)
McCain: 45% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 56% favorable, 43% unfavorable (-1, +1)
McCain: 58% favorable, 41% unfavorable (+1, -1)
Considering that, according to the chart above, a McCain +2 sample fell off, it's likely that today's sample was (roughly) Obama +1.  Also, depending on how big the difference between leaners and non-leaners was in the Wednesday sample, you could potentially see a weird result tomorrow (depending of course on the results) where McCain leads without leaners and Obama leads with them when the Obama +6 sample drops.

Obama +1 on the day after McCain's acceptance speech looks pretty good to me.

But let me guess Sam, be patient, right?

Of course.    It's been my comment about the whole campaign, I think.

[Sam Spade]

I want to clarify something I said earlier:  Whilst simple math, combined with the graphic posted above, means that it is most likely that the sample was about Obama +1, the sample could really be anywhere between a push to Obama +2.  Given that the fact the leaner numbers are Obama +1 for the three-day sample, I would place a much stronger bet that if it isn't Obama +1 for today, it's more likely to be a push than Obama +2.

I suspect most would agree.  Anyway, if there's a Obama +6 sample moving off tomorrow, it should get closer most likely.

But all in all, still be patient.  Nothing's written in stone, yet.

[Sam Spade]

If Silver is right and Thursday was Obama +3.9%, Friday was Obama +0.3%, the odds are that Saturday was somewhere around McCain +4 or so.

[Sam Spade]

I'd be careful about reading too much into Independent shifting.  Basically, after the Democratic convention, you undoubtedly had X% of Independents start identifying as Democrats and perhaps X% of Republicans start identifying as Independents.  Naturally, that would translate into a greater margin for McCain.

After the Republican convention, a shift will occur.  Things will likely go back to the way they were and then X% of Independent will start identifying as Republicans and perhaps X% of Democrats will start identifying as Independents.

Rasmussen's not going to pick this party ID movement up any since he hard-weights the polls.  It's also the reason why Obama's bounce was less in his poll than in other polls and why McCain's will be less too.

[Sam Spade]

Even Scott Rasmussen himself thinks his party ID weighting may be underestimating McCains lead:

"For a variety of reasons, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is less volatile than some other polls and always shows a somewhat smaller convention bounce than reported by others. This is primarily because we weight our results by party identification (see methodology). Looking at the data before adjusting for partisan identification, the Republican convention appears to have created a larger surge in party identification than the Democratic convention the week before. If this lasts, it could have a significant impact on Election 2008."

That's, of course, assuming that the party ID change sticks, which is not necessarily a valid assumption at all.

It's hard to say, but convention boosts are generally not boosts, but bubbles.  A long-term change in party ID would be disastrous for Obama, though.  It's hard to say how likely it is.

If this Republican gain in enthusiasm continues to the election in some form or another, there will be a tightening in party ID.  I can't say how much it would be, and it won't probably be as extreme as it looks post-convention, but it would be there and it would likely be somewhat significant.

Of course, I did predict a tightening in party ID, just because of the natural process of Republicans waking up to an election at this time of year.  But it might be more than I expected.

[Sam Spade]

Yea, base consolidation is kind of inevitable, and with a close Presidential election, partisan affiliation stigma is removed a little.  I'm talking a change beyond that, closer to 2004 numbers, though.  That'd be pretty disasterous for the Dems.  I'm skeptical, but it's looking slightly more likely.

I still think it's going to be more like 39D-35R-26I (or at least that's what my prediction would have pre-Palin), but I am starting to doubt that a little.  Obviously, I don't think it moves anywhere beyond 2004 (37R-37D-26I) and it's highly unlikely it could reach that exact number either, but added enthusiasm could certainly reduce the margin closer than that four-point difference I'm referring to.  After all, in Rasmussen last month, the difference was only 5.7%.

We'll see.  Lots of time left.

[Sam Spade]

If this Republican gain in enthusiasm continues to the election in some form or another, there will be a tightening in party ID.  I can't say how much it would be, and it won't probably be as extreme as it looks post-convention, but it would be there and it would likely be somewhat significant.

Agreed. If Rasmussen's sample has locked in pre-Palin shifts of Republicans to the Independent category, it's going to be slow to reflect any flow back, should it have happened. I wonder if he's scheduled to realign his partisan breakdowns before the election should this hold for more than the immediate post-convention bounce.

Doesn't he do it (at least) monthly?

Ya.  Last month (August) was:

Democrat 38.9%
Republican 33.2%
Indy/Other 28.0%

So his weight this month (average of three months, June through August) is:
Democrat 39.7%
Republican 32.1%
Indy/Other 28.2%

[Sam Spade]

Obama will likely be up by around a point or two tomorrow, as a good McCain sample comes off tomorrow.

The trick to figuring out whether this is a "bounce" or actual movement, once again, is probably going to be by figuring out whether any major shift in party ID has occurred that Rasmussen is weighting away.  

My best advice for figuring out whether this lasts beyond the next week or so is simply to compare Gallup to Rasmussen.  If Gallup continues to poll 2-4 points ahead for McCain after about a week or so, then this may be some type of actual movement in the party ID.  If they move back to tracking each other, like they did pre-DNC, then it isn't.

[Sam Spade]

So the race is basically tied still right? I do believe a good Mccain sample just left today so the slight uptick for Obama should be expected.

Ya, the McCain sample leaving was about +4 to +5.  So the shift should have actually a bit more.  For example, if Verily is right and the past two days were O+2 and O+3, it's likely that today's sample was M+3.

[Sam Spade]

Yesterday's sample was around a push, most likely, slightly better than the slightly Obama sample that pushed off.  Tomorrow another slightly Obama goes off - if we have another push, McCain will probably gain a point, and so on and so forth.

[Sam Spade]

Both the Friday numbers (not today, yesterday) for Rasmussen and Diageo look like outliers in the sample.  Of course, with Diageo, we have to wait until next week to find this out.

[Sam Spade]

Interesting.

I agree with Rasmussen as to putting the weight at the last 6 weeks, as opposed to the last 3 months.  After all, there really isn't much difference in MOE between 25,000 interviews and 45,000 interviews, and it allows him to catch any potential shifts in party ID much quicker.

I disagree with getting rid of the non-leaners number, however.  I found it quite informative and useful.

[Sam Spade]

McCain 49% (-1)
Obama 47% (nc)

Rasmussen agrees with Gallup again, and all is right with the world. (Except for the McCain lead.)

Now, it this with the new weighting.

Yesterday was with the new weighting too.

To my understanding, and I could be wrong, it read to me that yesterday numbers, which is today poll, is still on the old weight. But I could be wrong.

There's no reason that they couldn't immediately use the new weighting.  It's not like it affects what sample they take.  That's no guarantee that they did, but I don't see any logical reason why they wouldn't.

Well, Rasmussen said that from September 14-20, it would be with the new weighting.  So, while it's obvious that it would be today's sample, I don't know about yesterday.  Seems kinda unclear.

[Sam Spade]

I posted a commentary yesterday, but things are becoming more clear now, so my mind is clearer, so to speak. 

The sudden movements and shifts in this race are becoming pretty easily explainable, at least as far as I can tell.  Two things are occurring:

1) Decay from McCain's convention bounce (as noticeable in Rasmussen)

2) A pretty strong shift in party ID, owed to one of two factors: 1) Decay from the Republican Convention or 2) economic crisis.  Given Gallup's movement (which is the best firm in measuring these things) pre and post-economic crisis, my best guess is that the latter is making the stronger impact.

The combination of these two things leads us from getting McCain +3 to +5 results last week to us seeing Obama +3 to +5 results this week.

Also, it is important now to remember the rules concerning party ID.  Party ID shifts because one of two things is occurring: 1) Republicans in the sample are choosing to ID as Indys, Indys choose to identify as Dems, and so on and so forth or 2) Republicans start becoming less likely to answer phone calls or get past LV screens.  It is impossible to tell at this point which of the two is stronger in occurrence right now, though I have my reasons (based on looking at the national polls) to think that it is the latter.

One other point:  Right now, we are in the middle of the storm.  Based on what I see, it's going to take, at minimum, until next Monday before we have a completely clear picture, maybe not until next Thursday, depending on the continuance of the economic crisis.

As such, I expect Gallup to be at least Obama +4 or +5 today.

[Sam Spade]

I posted a commentary yesterday, but things are becoming more clear now, so my mind is clearer, so to speak. 

The sudden movements and shifts in this race are becoming pretty easily explainable, at least as far as I can tell.  Two things are occurring:

1) Decay from McCain's convention bounce (as noticeable in Rasmussen)

2) A pretty strong shift in party ID, owed to one of two factors: 1) Decay from the Republican Convention or 2) economic crisis.  Given Gallup's movement (which is the best firm in measuring these things) pre and post-economic crisis, my best guess is that the latter is making the stronger impact.

The combination of these two things leads us from getting McCain +3 to +5 results last week to us seeing Obama +3 to +5 results this week.

Also, it is important now to remember the rules concerning party ID.  Party ID shifts because one of two things is occurring: 1) Republicans in the sample are choosing to ID as Indys, Indys choose to identify as Dems, and so on and so forth or 2) Republicans start becoming less likely to answer phone calls or get past LV screens.  It is impossible to tell at this point which of the two is stronger in occurrence right now, though I have my reasons (based on looking at the national polls) to think that it is the latter.

One other point:  Right now, we are in the middle of the storm.  Based on what I see, it's going to take, at minimum, until next Monday before we have a completely clear picture, maybe not until next Thursday, depending on the continuance of the economic crisis.

As such, I expect Gallup to be at least Obama +4 or +5 today.

I doubt it. I hope I'm wrong though.

Why not?  Unless there are more bailouts/bankruptcies to come in the next few days, yesterday's sample should fundamentally be the worst one for McCain.  Additionally, the last *mildly* pro-McCain sample drops off today.

Keep in mind, though, that if I thought Obama had "closed the deal" with regards to the economy (which the numbers do not in any way show), you would be seeing me talk about a *permanent* shift, rather than saying to wait until next week.

[Sam Spade]

Keep in mind that Rasmussen doesn't show polling shifts to candidates as quickly as Gallup does. McCain's convention bounce is a good example of this.

Quite frankly, that's incorrect.  They show polling shifts at the same time, but since Rasmussen hard-weights his party ID, his shifts will never be as great unless the shift has nothing to do with party ID movement.

What did I predict today for Gallup again? 

[Sam Spade]

I posted a commentary yesterday, but things are becoming more clear now, so my mind is clearer, so to speak. 

The sudden movements and shifts in this race are becoming pretty easily explainable, at least as far as I can tell.  Two things are occurring:

1) Decay from McCain's convention bounce (as noticeable in Rasmussen)

2) A pretty strong shift in party ID, owed to one of two factors: 1) Decay from the Republican Convention or 2) economic crisis.  Given Gallup's movement (which is the best firm in measuring these things) pre and post-economic crisis, my best guess is that the latter is making the stronger impact.

The combination of these two things leads us from getting McCain +3 to +5 results last week to us seeing Obama +3 to +5 results this week.

Also, it is important now to remember the rules concerning party ID.  Party ID shifts because one of two things is occurring: 1) Republicans in the sample are choosing to ID as Indys, Indys choose to identify as Dems, and so on and so forth or 2) Republicans start becoming less likely to answer phone calls or get past LV screens.  It is impossible to tell at this point which of the two is stronger in occurrence right now, though I have my reasons (based on looking at the national polls) to think that it is the latter.

One other point:  Right now, we are in the middle of the storm.  Based on what I see, it's going to take, at minimum, until next Monday before we have a completely clear picture, maybe not until next Thursday, depending on the continuance of the economic crisis.

As such, I expect Gallup to be at least Obama +4 or +5 today.

I doubt it. I hope I'm wrong though.

Why not?  Unless there are more bailouts/bankruptcies to come in the next few days, yesterday's sample should fundamentally be the worst one for McCain.  Additionally, the last *mildly* pro-McCain sample drops off today.

Keep in mind, though, that if I thought Obama had "closed the deal" with regards to the economy (which the numbers do not in any way show), you would be seeing me talk about a *permanent* shift, rather than saying to wait until next week.

My guess is it's 3-5 on Gallup, which is showing +4 Obama, probably due to the financial markets.  Some of Obama's lead on Gallup is probably being suppressed by the midweek bounce.

Quite frankly, you place too much weight in the midweek/weekend bounce theory.  I agree that there is one, but quite frankly, I can't say that it's more than a 1% at best.  That type of movement is likely to get lost in the noise.

[Sam Spade]

Quite frankly, you place too much weight in the midweek/weekend bounce theory.  I agree that there is one, but quite frankly, I can't say that it's more than a 1% at best.  That type of movement is likely to get lost in the noise.

I think it's there, on Gallup, and possibly above one 1%.  Rasmussen does not have it, so I think it might be the the way Gallup samples.

That's one of the reasons I take drops in Obama very seriously on Saturday-Monday and drops for McCain very seriously Wednesday-Friday, on Gallup. 

Rasmussen seems to be very study, but I disagree that it might not have a lag of 1-2 days.

Gallup reacts quickly, but it's too volatile.  Rasmussen doesn't react as quickly, but it isn't volatile.

The Rasmussen weights are what eliminates the movement your noticing.

[Sam Spade]

The average McCain net over-performance on weekends in Gallup was +1.2, last time I checked.  Take that as you like.

Over-performance?

[Sam Spade]

The average McCain net over-performance on weekends in Gallup was +1.2, last time I checked.  Take that as you like.

Over-performance?

Well, "over" being relative to his week-day average, not "over" to his actual performance, which is obviously a totally un-knowable number.  But you'd think, week after week, the swings would average out enough to give us a general idea of the "weekend bounce."

I get what you're saying, though you're being confusing.  I suspect we generally agree on this, however. 

[Sam Spade]

I expect Obama to be up about 2 tomorrow as a strong McCain night rolls off, and 3 Obama wins will be on the sample(I expect Obama to win tonight).

You have access to the internals, right?  What are they?

[Sam Spade]

I expect Obama to be up about 2 tomorrow as a strong McCain night rolls off, and 3 Obama wins will be on the sample(I expect Obama to win tonight).

You have access to the internals, right?  What are they?

No, I don't personally. But, I know MAC is +5 with Indies today, after being +2 yesterday, and that the last three nights have been (most recent first):

Obama +2.69%
Obama +3.26%
McCain +5.33%

So the MAC night will fall off, giving Obama a lead of probably 2-3 points.

Well, thanks for the info.

I'm guessing that the Obama +2.69% of today replaced a similar number that dropped off today, right?