The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

My Congressman, Leonard Lance, seems to be holding steady against Larsen 60-40. I've seen the area blanketed in signs for both candidates as of late.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Clovis pulls ahead in Iowa, but with 7 precincts in. He leads in Cherokee county with about 45% so far. Ernst leads almost everywhere else.

EDIT: Ernst is ahead now. 1% in, leads Clovis 34-33.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

First votes from Montana are in; Walsh leads by 30%. Obviously won't hold.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

McDaniel up by 5000. Not looking good.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

McDaniel is leading by 18 votes in Rankin County. Not sure what to say about that.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

This is insane.

There will probably be more total votes in JONES COUNTY than Hinds in Mississippi, home to the biggest city in the state.

Un-freaking-believable.

Jones County alone constitutes about 8% of McDaniels' total vote count so far.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

With 99% in Leonard Lance makes it, 55-45. Did not expect NJ-7 to be the closest NJ house race.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

AOSHQDD has McDaniel holding at 50.12%, Cochran at 48.3%.

RealClearPolitics has McDaniel at 49.8%, Cochran at 48.6%

At this point, it seems like a 50/50 chance of a runoff happening.

AOSHQDD's results look a little outdated. But still, McDaniel is hovering dangerously close to 50%.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Lankford's lead is relatively uniform across the state at around 50-55%, with Cleveland running up his margins substantially.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Lankford's lead is relatively uniform across the state at around 50-55%, with Cleveland running up his margins substantially.

Will the long awaited Bradley Effect finally materialize? If it doesn't in a Republican primary in Oklahoma, I doubt it would anywhere.

May very well be the case. It's still early on but I would not be surprised if Lankford gets well over 50%. Shannon finally seems to be making some headway but it's all in the eastern part of the state.
Anybody know why this might be the case?

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

McDaniel's lead is now down to 57-43, 1% reporting so far.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

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Any reason why you think that?

Cochran was at similar margins with 10-15% in, and McDaniel made a huge comeback at around this time. Though when Hinds first started reporting Cochran was at just 75%, but the near 90% margins he's enjoying right now. I think it's gonna come down to the wire again.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

MS-Sen: AP with 20.5% of precincts in and Cochran at 54.5%, McDaniel at 45.5%.

This is about how it was this time during the primary:

Politico now has about 21% in.  Cochran leads 49.6-48.8%.

BTW: I'd be interested to see how the Black Belt counties vote, especially since Mississippi is an open primary state.

Looking much better for Cochran, I must say I'm surprised. I still think McDaniel will win, but by a very narrow margin as opposed to the 2-4% I thought before

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

First full county in in MS: Quitman.

Cochran won it 326-173 this time and only won it 215-129 last time around.

Quitman is a black belt delta county, so it looks like Cochran managed to get the turnout a little higher there while carrying it would roughly the same percentage.

Coahoma County is in now, too, and Cochran took it with 75.3%.

Last time around he took it with 66.7%

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

First full county in in MS: Quitman.

Cochran won it 326-173 this time and only won it 215-129 last time around.

Quitman is a black belt delta county, so it looks like Cochran managed to get the turnout a little higher there while carrying it would roughly the same percentage.

Coahoma County is in now, too, and Cochran took it with 75.3%.

Last time around he took it with 66.7%

And that was in Coahoma County?

Yes.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Cochran up by about 8,000 with 58% in. This time during the primary he was up 51-48, but it looks like he still won't be sheltered from the Jones County dump.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Cochran is 1,000 votes away from exceeding his vote total in Hinds with only 65.3% reporting; McDaniel still has not broken 3,000.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

MS-Sen: AP with 69.3% of precincts in and Cochran at 52.2%, McDaniel at 47.8%.

At this point in the primary:

69% in and 50-48 Cochran, still reason to be nervous about a runoff.

This is right before Jones came in of course.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Jones County is 97% in, Cochran leads by 4000. He's got this.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I'm starting to think this may go to a recount.

No recounts in MS.