538 Model Megathread

[KingSweden]

A bounce for Clinton in all projections today

[KingSweden]

Interesting stuff! Thanks for compiling that

[KingSweden]

On a side note, I'm disappointed Nate isn't doing his "Road to 270" series again this year. I always looked forward to in-depth analysis, and justification for his projections, even if I disagreed in some cases.

Yeah his state breakdowns were great

[KingSweden]

Trump back above 40 in all three models.  In 2012, Romney was in low single-digits going into the first debate, so Trump seems to be in much better shape than his forerunner.

Obama's convention bounce hadn't really subsided by then, though. Much less time between conventions and debates, so it's hard to make an apples to apples comparison.

[KingSweden]

I'm not sure what polls are responsible, but 538's model has Trump still surging.

That's what I'm scratching my head over. I get that he includes all the funky tracking polls, but you'd think more traditional polls would get weighted higher

[KingSweden]

Nate Cohen's Upshot model on the New York Times has shown Clinton recovering the past couple days. Currently gives her a 75%, up from the low 70's. I find there differences fascinating, especially right now.

I think RCP is a good happy medium too since even though it includes some sketchy polls it doesn't do a ton of weighting or adjusting

[KingSweden]

I think the issue is that Silver's model most wants lots of live caller state polls. If every day it had Fox, Monmouth, Marquette, Marist, CNN, etc state (and national) polls feeding it, it would work best. It is essentially an engine tuned for those. But this cycle the vast majority of data being put into the model are the online polls and notably the trackers and more recently, the '50 state polls'.  If they knew what data was coming this cycle, I bet they would have built the model differently, but they have what they have. 

I suspect that after the debates there will be more live-call polls and they will increase in frequency both at the state and national level. Then perhaps you will see less of a disparity between it and the Upshot model. 

I think this is it

[KingSweden]

I imagine those state polls will nudge Clinton a little bit down, but probably not a ton since they're in states where Trump is already leading

[KingSweden]

Fox News Poll is now added. Trump moves up to 42.4%

As predicted. Adjusted towards Clinton by 1 point each for house effect

[KingSweden]

Clinton up to 59% after Q-Pac polls adjusted 1 point in her direction

[KingSweden]

I thought everything about Silver's most recent post...

fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-leading-in-exactly-the-states-she-needs-to-win/

...was spot-on, except for this puzzling line near the end: "She has one really good Electoral College path, but it’s only one path, instead of the robust electoral map that President Obama had in 2008 and 2012."

WTH? I mean, he JUST went into tremendous detail about how Clinton's closest state, New Hampshire, is safer than Trump's five closest states. And how states don't appear to be as well-correlated this election as they have been in the past.

So saying Clinton doesn't have a robust path is just silly...

Hes probably talking about the 272 freiwal.

All hail and bow down before the freiwal

[KingSweden]

The polls-only model gives Trump a 0.4% chance of winning DC!

So you're saying there's a chance?

[KingSweden]

LOL, all the double digit polls changed nothing but a single IBT poll dropped Clinton by 1%.

Law of diminishing returns, I guess...

[KingSweden]

Clinton is up for the day in the nowcast for the first time since October 26th.

Yeah. The race seems to stabilize. Clinton might even regain a bit.

But it will be one more NH polls tonight. From "B" UMassLowell. If it will be Trump-frienldy, he could gane again.



Difference between 538/Upshot over time.

Predictwise has similarly shown a similar chart in relation to 538. This is why I think Silver's model is useful, it just exagerates trends in comparison to the others