VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[KingSweden]

I mean the new polls indicate the race has shifted towards Gillespie about two points in the last two weeks.

If you thought Northam was ahead by more than 2 previously then you should still think he is ahead.

I thought he was ahead by 2 - 4 roughly so now I think this is a tilt D race where Northam will likely edge it out by 1% or so on the back of strong liberal turnout.

I do think this will be the first race where Trump blatantly loses something for the GOP. I actually think Gillespie would win by 2 - 4 if Clinton were president.

Honestly Gillespie could probably win by more than that had Clinton won

[KingSweden]

Lordy, can everyone take a chill pill. Northam is still going to win and y'all just overreact too much.

Everyone, BD of all people is being the voice of reason and I think it would behoove everyone to heed his advice

[KingSweden]

Polls are all over the place but I'm gonna guess +6 Northam

I’m a little more bearish. I’ve figured Dr. Ralph +4 for some time.

[KingSweden]

According to elect project, early voting is pointing to a narrow Ralph win

VA has limited early voting tho so probably hard to Tea Leaf there

[KingSweden]

My prediction: Northam, Fairfax and Herring all win by around 3-5 points. Democrats pickup 6-8 seats in the HoD.

This is a really reasonble prediction

[KingSweden]

If you were a republican, how would you react to a Northam victory by 3 points?

Yea, it would be upsetting to lose what appeared to be a winnable race, but on the other hand, it's reassuring that trump's approvals aren't totally wiping out "generic r"

In your case, you’d probably also want to consider how downballot races go. HoD could be instructive with the map gerrymandered in GOP favor